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ABI Research Blog (100)

Nokia Will Need More Asha To Help Regain Market-share

Nov 15, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Nokia will no doubt receive aboost from thelaunch ofits ‘clutch’ of Nokia Ashas (Hindi for "hope"), the 200, the 201, the 300 and the 301.

Much was made of the 200for being dual SIM and the 300for being preloaded with Angry Birds. We are not sure these handsets will be enough to hold back the tide of competition beating on its Indian shores. Only one of the Ashas was dual SIM. Surely more dual SIM handsets are needed?

Nokia will still need to continue to aggressively refresh its low-end and ultra-low end handset models if the vendor is intent on further regaining some of its lost market-share. In 3Q-2011, Nokia made swingeing cuts to its wholesale pricing that helped the vendor to claw back market-share from 24.5% (2Q-2011) to 27.8%. While market-share swung up, profit margins swung down. Nokia cannot keep on hacking away at retail prices to boost market-share. Nokia will need to ensure it has competitive product at sustainable pricing points, otherwise its market-share could well take a swan dive again.

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SMBs Embracing Smartphones for Business Purposes - Dahhhhh!!!

Nov 8, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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A headline this morning was that small businesses in emerging markets are using smartphones for business purposes. Dahhhhhh!!!. Small businesses, regardless of region,have been the most aggressive in using mobile technologies purchased from their mobile operator for business use. Before smartphones, it was voice and text messaging. When IM services became more widely available - small businesses were using it. Blackberry BBM allows keeping a record of conversations.

The difference now is that smartphones offer more capabilities primarily through downloadable apps. My plumber in 2009 was using an iPhone app to invoice me for services. For developed regions, small businesses were also the most progressive with adopting mobile broadband services because they could just go out and buy it and not wait for IT to approve.

The difference now is that there is a huge opportunityto sell tosmall businessesthe apps and services that have traditionally been the domain ofthe large business.Cloud computing is enablingthis opportunity andcomes in the form ofMicrosoft 365,Google Apps,mobile app development, content management, mobile device management, andFMC (ex: Vodafone'sOne Net Express).Operators are in agreat positionto capitalize on the SMB market butexpect everyone to try to gain a piece of this pie​

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Nintendo Considering Support for 2 Wii U Controllers for Local Gaming…Is This Recipe for Disaster?

Nov 8, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​According to the rumor mill Nintendo is reportedly considering local multiplayer scenarios that support 2 touch screen controllers (simultaneously). This feature was not supported when Nintendo unveiled the next generation console at this past E3 (June 2011), an omission some thought was quite disappointing, but I foresee some potential complications.
This might fall under the same category of unforeseen mishaps that some users of the Wii experienced. It is a testament to good gaming that users become so engrossed they fail to comprehend the potential consequences of their actions – e.g. playing virtual baseball or tennis with a stick like controller. In fact some early issues with the strap (or no strap at all) caused some users to make the throwing action a bit too real as they hurled the controller – in some cases, quite tragically, into their new flat screen television. While consumers have gotten the hang of motion based controls, pointing to the Sony Move and Microsoft Kinect as well, the Wii U controller adds a new wrinkle to the equation.
Let’s imagine for the moment two people playing the same game in relatively close proximity of each other, using motion controls. This isn’t new and thus far there doesn’t seem to be any issues with users playing interactive games mere feet from each other. One could parallel this to an exercise or martial arts class where people follow an instructor – we don’t expect or anticipate classmates will inadvertently strike their neighbors (although I’m sure this has happened). But take that image and give each of them a separate screen to view and encourage them to move around independently – this would be the equivalent of tasking each martial arts student to try and kick a randomly floating orb (yes like Star Wars). With most of their attention on the orb and their task of kicking it, hilarity (and some bruises) are a very likely outcome. But in Nintendo’s case this might result in consumers dropping the tablet-like controllers…and if I had to bet on which would fare better, the hard floor or the controller, I would lean towards the former.
Psychology has shown that people, when given a focusing task, can often lose track of the surrounding environment (selective attention test – Daniel Simmons and Christopher Chabris). There are countless examples, but a popular one has subjects counting how many times certain basketball players dribble or pass a ball – during this task a man in a gorilla suit walks around the players. In this test quite a few of the participants never noticed or report seeing anything out of the ordinary and are shocked to see replay footage. This is the same reason why cell phones or texting can be troublesome while driving – we can only absorb so much of our environment and focusing on a small screen might invite potential problems. But time will tell, maybe Nintendo will introduce a collision warning system akin to the automobile industry’s blind spot warning systems.

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Is Disney / ABC warming up to digital distribution?

Oct 31, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today, both Amazon and Netflix announced that they had reached deals for streaming of ABC and Disney owned content. Netflix secured a short term renewal while Amazon's secured a new licensing deal.Content licensedincludes ABC Studios (Lost, Ugly Betty, Grey’s Anatomy, Desperate Housewives”), Disney Channel (Phineas and Ferb, Hannah Montana), and ABC Family (American Teenager and others). The deals also reinforced Netflix’s ‘rerun’ position, as their content license begins 30 days after the conclusion of the final episode of the season. Amazon Prime Instant Video – Amazon’s newer subscription video service included with Amazon Prime shipping, gained access to a smaller share of content with a similar ‘rerun’ model.

Hulu, owned by Disney / ABC, Comcast / NBC Universal and News Corp., continues to be the distribution partner of choice for recent TV content, with its ability to monetize it with both Advertising as well as Hulu Plus subscriptions (still less than the cost of cable but more than a TV antenna). Hulu’s owners recently cancelled their auction – Google wanted more content licenses than the parents were willing to bundle, while Dish Networks’ bids were too low. Therefore, Hulu will continue to be on a short lease to show the networks with can monetize same-season content more than it hurts their revenues from cable re-transmission fees.

Disney’s crown jewels, movie content under Disney and Touchtone imprints, was not included in the deal. This content is currently very limited in digital distribution, with Apple being the partner of choice both through iTunes as well as Disney’s own Digital File Disk included in some DVD and Blu-Ray purchases that allows download to Apple devices.
Headlines aside, these announcements do more to reinforce our positions that Amazon will continue to open their wallet to compete in subscription digital video distribution, while Netflix will recover some lost ground and remain the leader in over the top (OTT) video distribution for the foreseeable future. Hulu, with its unique license for recent content, will remain important.
We’ll continue to jump to headlines, such as those in the Wall Street Journal, reading “Netflix, Amazon Unveil Deals for Disney-ABC Streaming Content”, hoping that Disney movies are included and digital movie distribution is really ready to take off.

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Running Out of Numbers for Cellular M2M

Oct 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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In August 2011, the Dutch Ministry for Economic Affairs announced a public consultation on the proposed amendment to the Telephone Number and ISDN Services Plan. The amendment seeks to introduce new numbering ranges for M2M (machine to machine) communications. Specifically, the 097 number sequence has been recommended for M2M use, with other number ranges, such as the 06 sequence, reserved for M2M use in the future. While it’s uncertain how the amendment will fair, the proposal highlights a growing concern in the industry that with the expected billions of M2M devices eventually coming online, there simply will not be enough numbers to address them all.

This concern over numbers for M2M (specifically for MSISDN numbers that identify mobile stations on cellular networks) is relatively recent. Far more attention has been paid to the issue of IPv4 (Internet Protocol version 4) addresses running out, and the resulting need for the global Internet to move to the IPv6 protocol to greatly expand the number of available addresses. Nevertheless, if we are to achieve the scale in the cellular-based Internet of Things that many predict – such as Ericsson’s 50 billion devices by 2020 aspiration – it will be necessary to provide identification capabilities beyond current cellular number ranges.
Fortunately, there are potential solutions available. At present, the most likely solutions are 1) open up new numbering ranges, 2) use service layer proxies, 3) use gateway proxies, or 4) use IMEI “transforms” to create pseudo-numbers for M2M. In the near term, the present quantity of numbers should suffice for the next 3 – 5 years, although this will vary by country and operator. One global operator with whom ABI Research has spoken claims it has numbers in the billions set aside for M2M, though this seems a distinct outlier compared with other operators.
Inevitably, as the numbering shortage issue starts to become more acute, all of the solutions mentioned above will be used; each presents advantages and disadvantages. ABI Research is confident that as the numbering issue starts to become increasingly top of mind in the industry, a permanent solution will be found.
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Sprint Shifts to LTE for 4G – the Impact on M2M

Oct 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Sprint announced on 25 October 2011 that it would deploy LTE-Advanced on its 800 MHz spectrum by the second half of 2013. This follows on its previous announcement earlier in the month that LTE – not WiMax – would feature as its main 4G technology going forward as part of the company’s “Network Vision” infrastructure deployment. The announcements represent a “sea change” in the 4G market, as Sprint had been one of the few major MNOs in the world previously to espouse a WiMax-based 4G strategy. Clearly, this also has in impact on 4G M2M, and it is now clear that WiMax will play an increasingly niche role in the M2M market going forward.

M2M applications are not typically associated with high-bandwidth 3G and 4G cellular technologies. For many M2M application developers and customers, 2G technologies are “good enough” for exception-based, or otherwise intermittent or low data transmitters. Nevertheless, it’s clear that for some applications – particularly automotive telematics, smart grid distribution automation, video surveillance, and digital signage – higher bandwidth is more optimal.
Also, there is increasing concern that M2M assets deployed in the field for 7 – 10 years, or more, could “out-live” the current network infrastructure. That is, if a remote device is deployed on a GPRS network, and the MNO shuts-down the GPRS network, the remote device will have to be replaced/upgraded in the field. This “future-proofing” concern has also sparked an interest in embedding 3G technologies even in applications where 2G speed may be perfectly adequate.
Sprint had for several years touted the benefits of WiMax for M2M. These mainly revolve around lower costs relative to LTE, and even to CDMA technologies. WiMax modules are currently priced in the mid-$30s, about the same costs as the lowest-priced 3G WCDMA modules. WiMax and LTE face dramatically different in cost considerations; WiMax has benefitted from fewer RF chains, and no backward compatibility requirements with 3G.
Cost a significant consideration for M2M, but so is coverage. With the Sprint announcements, it now appears that WiMax will be a niche connectivity technology for M2M. WiMax for M2M applications will be mostly relegated to some utility networks and other closed, private industrial applications.
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Impressions of M2M at CTIA Enterprise & Applications

Oct 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The CTIA Enterprise & Applications tradeshow is an important mobile industry trade event that has nevertheless been struggling in recent years to retain attendees in the face of stiff competition not only from Mobile World Congress, but also from the “main” CTIA tradeshow held earlier in the spring of each year, and a growing mobile focus at CES. Foot traffic at the show appeared to be noticeably down from the fall show last year.

Despite this, the size of the “M2M Zone” special interest section appeared to be the same or larger than last year (and a larger proportion of the overall show). It was also interesting to note that “M2M” products and services have filtered beyond the “zone” to feature in the main show floor booths of major communications companies. Companies such as Samsung and Huawei, for example, featured “smart home” (home automation) and “home healthcare” technologies and systems.
We attended an interesting demonstration of a luxury-class consumer telematics service offered by Audi, powered by a Telit Communications embedded HSPA module, and connected over the T-Mobile USA network by RACO Wireless. Apart from the polished visual UI, voice command capabilities, and extensive list of features, the most interesting feature was the high speed broadband access offered by the system. This broadband access is distributed to multiple car occupants via Wi-Fi and highlights how OEM consumer telematics is fundamentally shifting from a roadside assistance and concierge-services model, to an infotainment paradigm.
The question then arises, however: how will telematics hardware embedded in vehicles that are on the road for 7 or 10 years keep up with the pace of technological development of wireless broadband speeds? To some extent, the problem is ameliorated by the “rising tide lifts all boats” effect of increasing speed on the network side leading to the increasing speed of already deployed cellular connections using older versions of the same technology.
This manifests as a deployed radio coming closer to its theoretical maximum throughput as the underlying network technology improves. In other words, an HSPA connection rated at 7.2 Mbps but operating in the “real world” at 1 or 2 Mbps will start to achieve real world rates closer to 7.2 Mbps as the underlying network is advanced to 14 Mbps or 21 Mbps. This doesn’t solve the problem of the HSPA to LTE transition, but HSPA network technology is likely to be deployed through the remainder of this decade in any case.
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Arxan Hardens Multiplatform DRM Solutions

Oct 25, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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In our recent report on Digital Rights Management (DRM), we highlighted a number of companies that provide hardware and software solutions underlying CA and DRM solutions. These companies provide a mix of core technologies (Intertrust), semiconductor IP solutions (Authentec‘s SafeNet IP), software development tools enabling code hardening (Metaphoric), and porting solutions or turnkey implementations hardened for specific devices (Irdeto’s Cloakware and Authentec).

Since we published this, Arxan released a white paper highlighting their mobile solutions in this space, used in Google’s Widevine DRM solutions. Arxan’s technologies enable tamper resistance, prevent reverse engineering, protect communication channels and prevent spoofing attacks. Arxan’s solutions are inserted at the binary level, which can provide additional resilience beyond source-code approaches. In addition to DRM, Arxan provides solutions to a number of end-markets, including in traditional enterprise IT applications, biometrics and high value CAD tool licensing.

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Sector Alarm Goes Wireless - Home Automation on the Horizon?

Oct 24, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Last month, Sector Alarm announced that it had selected Telenor Connexion to supply wireless connectivity for its residential home alarm and security systems.

Sector Alarm, which boasts over 130,000 subscribers across Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands, is said to be focused on expanding its market presence and therefore "needs a reliable product" according to Henrik Rosell, Regional Sales Manager at Telenor Connexion.
But what does Henrik mean when he refers to Sector Alarm needing a reliable product and how might the company be planning on increasing its market presence?
Traditionally, home security systems have made use of fixed line infrastructure such as telephone lines and broadband cables to provide connectivity to a central monitoring station. However, the main disadvantage of these system types is the fact that fixed lines can be severed bypotential house burglars. Wireless connectivity, on the other hand, cannot. Furthermore, cellular systems are secure from environmental issues such as storms and power outages and also do not have any impact on telephone or broadband Internet access.
Does Sector Alarm have home automation on the horizon?
When I first read the announcement, I immediately thought of Vivint. The company has been making waves over in North America with its cellular-based home security system, which also provides basic home automation capabilities such as appliance control and energy management. In the space of just five years, Vivint (formerly APX Alarm), has gone from being unranked to its current position at number four in the SDM Top 100 list of largest residential security installation and monitoring organizations. The company claims that by offering home automation alongside home security, attrition has fallen by two-thirds and customers have cancelled at a much lower rate.
Vivint’s spectacular ascent can’t have gone unnoticed and it would come as no surprise to me, therefore, if Sector Alarm was planning on emulating Vivint and looking at providing home automation capabilities in the future as part of the aforementioned plan to expand its market presence.
ABI Research’s will be publishing a new report that examines the market for home automation systems provided by home security companies in the next few weeks. The report forms part of the firm’s Home Automation Research Service which also examines the entrance into the home automation market of other service providers such as utilities, telcos and cable operators.
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Reviving Heat Conversion?

Oct 21, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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A two year old San Francisco startup, Alphabet Energy, is commercializing an inexpensive waste heat recovery technology. Essentially, this form of energy harvesting implies thermoelectric energy. Alphabet differentiates by using an all-silicon approach to develop thermoelectric generators. Such an approach literally allows it to scale, piggybacking the semiconductor industry, much like the solar industry. This is a key factor as an investment prospect as scalability is often a requirement by venture capitalists.

With Alphabet’s approach going all silicon, this could open up a realm of opportunities in electronics world, particularly wireless sensor networking (WSN). Wireless sensors, a key enabling technology towards the vision of Internet of Things (IOT) and/or Machine to Machine (M2M) is hindered by power sources that could last over long period or even doing without a finite power source. If this approach takes traction, integration into wireless sensors could drive the market beyond what is forecasted.

Energy source in WSN has always been a challenge as WSN is typically deployed in environments that are not easily accessible due to a myriad of reasons such as safety and security issues. Current solutions to energy source conservation in WSN have been utilizing optimization techniques at every level of a WSN system. This includes design optimization at chip, module levels as well as running more efficient networking sequences in terms scheduling to keep WSN nodes in sleep mode as much as possible to conserve battery power.

For these reasons, true battery-free energy harvesting systems are not widespread, and ABI Research believes it will not be until they can meet applications’ power requirements 100% of the time and achieve volumes so their implementation is not cost-prohibitive compared to batteries.
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