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ABI Research Blog (101)

5 TB DVR Doesn't Meet My Needs

Oct 4, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Need time-shifting TV, but your cable operator doesn’t offer it? Toshiba announced a high end DVR featuring a 5 Terabyte Hard Drive – it supports 1 TB for your traditional DVR needs, and 4 TB dedicated to continuous recording for time shift TV of up to 6 channels for up to 15 days. The DVR includes 8 tuners, as well as a 3D Blu-ray player so you don’t need additional electronics hanging around your house.

With a a 5 TB hard drive, I’d much rather use it for a digital movie storage locker – like my old 200 disk CD jukebox . Despite its mechanical arm and the occasional disk jam, the jukebox was much more reliable than iTunes on my Apple TV – which doesn’t work with my Buffalo NAS (because its not a true authenticated iTunes server), and is spotty with my usually-on PC as the iTunes server is sometimes up, and sometimes comes across the odd log-in failure. And putting my DVD movies onto the NAS? Occasionally I can get passed the CSS and associated technologies to make a digital copy (under fair-use regulations, of course) for frequently watched kids programs – but what a nightmare.
Alas, neither of these technologies will make under my Hannukah Menorah this year – both because of the 200,000 ($2600) price tag, and because it will only be sold in Japan – where only about 10 basic cable channels support recording – so recording 6 channels continuously is an even bigger deal.
(Thanks to pocket-lint for the report)
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Apple Sets Uneasy Litmus Test for Location Sharing

Oct 4, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today, Apple announced that it will support an iOS5 only friend/family location sharing facility. At the time of writing the exact mechanisms were unclear, but given that some Apple users trust its products and services instinctively, failure of this feature would be a clear indication consumers are not ready for this and other pervasive LBS.

Instead of implicitly extracting location data from users, through terms and conditions and cleverly placed disclaimers, tech companies need to get the user get involved. Apple’s new location sharing application will have a number of user/parental-defined controls, which will restrict the whos, wheres and whens. The concept of explicit location data extraction is discussed in detail in ABI’s report, “ Location Analytics & Privacy ”. There is no better way to do this than to give users full control on how location data is shared and used. It is our belief, that if this is implemented correctly, the vast majority will embrace location and the variety of extremely beneficial applications which it enables.
From Apple’s point of view, this could represent a reversal of location fortunes, going from locationgate to cherished family protection in one application. It will also double as a phone finder application and could even be used for fleet/employee management. It also enables Apple to remain competitive with the likes of Google’s Latitude services. A major plus for Apple, is its disproportionately large installed base of early adopters who are familiar with applications like Foursquare, more comfortable with the idea of sharing location.and will give Apple every chance to succeed on this.
While this is something we kind of expected, having forecast it in our report, “ LBS: Carriers vs Application Stores ”, I have the same uneasy feeling as I do when watching footballers rolling around on pitches - are they making too much of it? Is this and Siri really the two big new features on Apple 4s? Does location really matter that much to Apple? It’s not even a new idea with the LBS path paved with location sharing has-beens.
Either way, if this fails either due to privacy fears or the lack of real benefit for many users, alarm bells should be ringing at every LBS developer. If it is a success, its limitation to iOS5 users means that for once this will be case of rising waters floating all boats. Apple has a history of getting it right so let’s keep our fingers crossed.
As for Siri, a friend was only discussing last week that the person that can properly solve ASR and STT technology will be very rich.Consideringthat Google hasn’t masteredASR and STTyet, given the time, effort and money it has spent, Iwill be veryimpresed if Apple has in a way that works and is practical for users.

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John Peel Appears on a CSR Chip!

Oct 4, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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As an admirer ofJohn Peel'swork I was amazed when ABI Research VP of Engineering Jim Mielke sent overwhat he titled his "NEW BEST LOGO".

As part of Jim's worktearing mobile phones he regularly hunts downthe cleverlogos that engineersetch intotheirICs. This one appears on Cambridge Silicon Radios Bluetooth ICs.

Thanks to the engineers at CSR and to Jim's team!

John Peel

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Apple's Lack of NFC in iPhone 4S Does Not Negatively Impact the Market

Oct 4, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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All the grand speculation, rumour, and counter-rumour, at the beginning of the year about Apple's grand plan for NFC has been answered - for now.

I am not entirely surprised by the lack of NFC in the iPhone 4S - it is a revision and enhancement of the existing iPhone 4, not an all new iPhone 5. Specific to NFC, should I be surprised, or even disappinted? After all, Apple doesn’t have a great record of driving new features or technologies itself, instead its skill is in reinventing the wheel by polishing the user experience, aided by a strong marketing message and excellant presentation. I don’t think the market for NFC has moved on enough for Apple to start down this road.

Additionally, Apple likes to own the ecosystem but the incumbent payment networks are too entrenched and so I don’t think it can do this on its own right now (or at least it hasn’t worked out the best model to proceed) However, Apple is incredibly cash rich so the acquisition of, or investment in,a payments-related company would not be out of the question. Similarly, in order to maximize NFC, and the different user experiences that it can deliver, it would make sense to feature NFC in a range of products, such as the iPad, Macbooks, etc. and these design upgrades are not yet ready.

Whilst having Apple on-board would have been a great driver for NFC – even if only for competitive reasons – I don’t think it will negatively impact the market. This continues to heat up, companies are increasingly launching devices and service strategies are being formulated. Instead of Apple, Google is the threat to MNOs and acting as the spur for others to get their acts together. NFC is progressing in other areas too, such as Windows 8 tablets, something that I expect Apple is keeping an eye on with a view to having NFC in multiple devices (which is where the “lifestyle” side of NFC can come into play). Overall, we are holding our position on NFC and expect to see this continue to develop – possibly with Apple entering a more developed ecosystem in a year or two’s time.​

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Elster – “System of Systems” Provider

Oct 3, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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On 6 Sep 2011, Elster, one of the world’s largest electricity, gas and water measurement and control providers, announced the release of their integrated universal meter and radio platform, the REXUniversal meter. It will be commercially available in North America in the second quarter of 2012. This comes on the back of a recent announcement by Elster and Landis+Gyr to jointly develop integrated advanced metering hardware for smart grid applications.

Smart metering has come a long way whereby meter vendors traditionally have emphasized on functionality, building proprietary systems to stave off competitors. However, trends are taking shape that smart metering is treading or already ankle-deep into the phase of open standards and interoperability. This is in part if not largely driven by utilities’ demands for plug-and-play compatibility, thereby preventing any “vendors lock-in”. This also facilitates ease of introducing advanced features in smart grid products and solutions in retrofit exercises.

This aligns well with Elster’s pursuit or strategy towards developing open interface products and solutions in the smart grid solutions space, positioning itself has a key industry leader. With EnergyAxis and REXUniversal platforms in place, this opens up to a plethora of opportunities to untapped markets and channels through partnerships across the globe, especially to utilities that are not Elsters’ clients and vice versa for Elster’s partners.

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Emerging market series: Will Kenya's wholesale LTE network plan succeed?

Sep 29, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Many would compareKenya's recently declaredwholesalenetwork LTE planto Russia and question the actual possibilities of a cost reduction for the operators and the end consumers. Due to the monopoly the company has over the network, there might be a high chance that exorbitant prices would be charged to the operators who lease it. However, the difference between Kenya’s model and Russia’s lies in the fact that the Russian wholesale LTE network is largely controlled by Yota of which is allowed to control the prices at which the network is loaned. On the other hand in Kenya, the consortium was formed by the representatives from individual operators and is controlled by the government. Hence, the prices of the lease can be expected to be at reasonable levels.

The next matter of concern would be QoS. Many operators prefer to control their network coverage as they do not want to be left out of any areas where there would be demand and lag behind competition. But with the government ensuring no more LTE spectrum to be issued and with everyone else tied onto the wholesale network, it would still be a rather fair playing ground with competition now largely being centered around pricing of plans and its mobile services.

Although much has been said, it should be noted that Safaricom is preparing to launch LTE services in Kenya and may be the only independent 4G services provider as it is unsure how the Kenyan Government is planning to deal with them. Also, the Kenyan government might face reluctance from companies to lead the charge due to the low returns it receives for the amount of work they have put in to organize the consortium. Furthermore, it will be hard for revenue and expenditure issues (which are also top priority issues) to be ironed out before the stipulated deadline.

PS: I am now experimenting on a"blog series" idea so as tohave amore focused blogging as well as create a platform for analysts and readersto discuss about certain topics. The first theme that I came up with is the "Emerging market" series where I cover a range of topics from emerging markets. But I need yourfeed back on what you think of this idea (or probably what themes you would like to see)to carry on with this expermiement.

Please forward your comments to Lim@abiresearch.com. Thank you

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Nokia Conspicuous By Its Absence From Isis Handsets Announcement

Sep 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Given the length of Nokia's involvement ​in developing and launching NFC - for the first few years the ONLY NFC phones were Nokia phones - it was highly notable to me that Nokia was just about the only multi-device OEM missing from Isis' announcement this week.

Here it is incase you missed it: http://news.paywithisis.com/2011/09/27/manufacturers-add-support/

In brief this focused on a level of commitment gathered from various device manufacturers, specifically: HTC, LG, Motorola Mobility, RIM, Samsung Mobile, Sony Ericsson. All of these OEMs have agreed to implement NFC technology and standards that will form part of Isis commercial offering.

Interestingly, the announcement also included Device Fidelity, who's microSD card-based solution be offered to Isis customers in order to offer the service to those with (suitable) legacy devices.

This all reinforces my viewpoint that markets, such as the US, will have NFC provisioned almost solely by smartphones. Regarding those that have signed up, they are almost exclusivelyAndroid licensees. The primary exception to this is RIM, which is well entrenched within the US market and has been notably active of late with NFC in five new handsets.

Interestingly, Samsung and HTC are alsoprimaryWindows PhoneOEMs- but I will be writing more about this separately.

And this leads back to my first point - where was Nokia? Personally I do not read too much into the fact that it was absent - I see this as more of a reflection of Nokia's standing in the North American market than anything else. It continues to lack good relationships and distribution with the US MNOs and as such it will not be at the front of the queue when a US MNO JV (as Isis is) is signing up manufacturers.

Looking at the broaderopportunity, I see good things for Nokia as it builds closer relationships with MNOs in other countries - in effect being their new best friend in the face of mounting competition between MNOs, Apple and Google, for customer ownership. Its most recent steps for basic NFC inclusion in its Symbian handset reinforces this point and I expect to see more with the next generation of Windows Phones.

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Merchants and NFC: Payments, Great. Now Tie It To This…

Sep 27, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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I presented at a great conference two weeks ago focused on mobile solutions for retail called RAMP http://retailramp.com/ . It was very well attended, particularly by merchants. Lots of discussion about NFC and mobile payments particularly – along with NFC couponing, offers, loyalty and rewards.

But there was also a lot of… whining. Despite investment and evangelizing from Google and ISIS, many merchants were whining. Someone needs to prove NFC works. I don’t want to be a first mover. I don’t understand why consumers want NFC, etc., etc.
Yes, there are no NFC phones yet. But there will be a lot of them coming to the U.S. in 2012 and it will become a tsunami of phones after that. No less than 50 different models are in testing or production as of this writing. That means that a great deal of Americans will have NFC phones in their hands over the next few years.
That’s exciting, but perhaps what is more so for merchants are some innovative thinking by NFC solutions providers who are focused on enhancing in-store experiences – using NFC technology to enable line busting, cutting edge customer service and content discovery.
I think Narian Technologies http://nariantechnologies.com/ is a company merchants will quickly turn to because they have thought through and can deliver solutions that will improve bottom line. According to Narian CEO Einar Rosenberg, merchants should pay more attention to sales that are lost when shoppers are in stores than incremental sales brought through coupons and promotions. He says merchants typically see 2% increase in incremental sales from upsell promotions and coupons. However, physical merchants lose a whopping 50% of incremental sales by failing to close opportunities in store. For example, their “Line Pager” solution sends an alert to a customer’s phone when it is their turn to order, a capability well suited for the grocery deli counter. The “Service Pager” is designed for use in restaurants to allow diners to place orders, ask for the check or top up beverages. The “Communicator” solution enables consumers visiting a chain store to speak with a topical expert in another store if all the clerks in the location they are in are tied up. The Narian solutions make use of NFC tags and currently require the consumer to have an Android phone and appropriate downloaded mobile app.
Another company to watch is Xius http://www.xius.com/ , which is selling passive and active NFC Smart posters that will power remote ordering food & beverage systems for drive throughs and hospitals. Imagine being able to touch your smartphone to access the drive through menu and ordering system – no need to yell and be yelled at incoherently by fuzzy speakers anymore. Or find and purchase a vast array of prepaid recharge – for phones, debit cards, online games, and gift cards -- at a tiny kiosk in a convenience store. This type of solution saves physical retailers valuable space and increases yield.
Last, there is Vivotech http://www.vivotech.com/products/vivo_server/index.asp , which envisions a personalized in-store, NFC-powered shopping experience. In Vivotech’s view, a customer enters the store, taps a touch point, reader or smart poster etc. The merchant now knows you are there, and can make offers. As the customer goes down aisles, they can tap on shelf tags to get product information, price checks, etc. The merchant could also make offers at that point, based on the customers actions. This interaction also represents an opportunity for financial institutions and other players. Then customer goes to the checkout, taps their phone once at the POS to calculate coupon redemption, loyalty reward points and payment.
These are technology solutions that make consumers retail experiences more convenient and more personalized. Consumers want that. Watch for innovative first-mover retailers to jump on these solutions and incorporate them with NFC mobile payments, and get a leg up on their competition.
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The Numbers Behind Vivint’s One Millionth Installation

Sep 27, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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In August, Vivint (formerly APX Alarm) reached an important milestone as a company when the one millionth installation of its home security/home automation system was carried out in the Alabama home of a Mr. James Owen. At the time of this writing, the company is said to be serving around 560,000 customers.

Is Vivint’s customer retention so poor that it has managed to lose some 440,000 customers since it was formed twelve years ago? An anonymous industry source with close ties to Vivint informs me that the reason for the discrepancy is that for the first 8 years of its lifespan, the then APX Alarm sold of its customers to rival security companies as part of its dealer program.

Since 2007, the company has kept hold of its own customers and I am led to believe thatin the last two years alone, the company has taken on board approximately 150,000 new subscribers in 2010 and 2011 - 300,000 in total.

According to ABI Research's recent report entitledHome Automation and Monitoring, approximately 557,000home automation systems were shipped in 2010, meaning Vivint had a 27% market share.

All of this is also good news for SaaS (Software as a Service) vendor Alarm.com, which provides the core technology behind Vivint's offering. Alarm.com also counts GE Security, FrontPoint Security, Protect America, and TYM Security among its customers and if each is performing as strongly as Vivint, Alarm.com holds a lofty and indeed, enviable position in the home automation software platforms market.​​

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Open Consortium for Smart Energy Profile 2

Sep 27, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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On 16th August 2011, the HomePlug Alliance, Wi-Fi Alliance, HomeGrid Forum and ZigBee Alliance agreed to create an open consortium for Smart Energy Profile (SEP) 2 Interoperability, enabling a myriad of organizations from these alliances whose technologies support communications over internet protocol (IP) to certify SEP 2 in accordance to a consistent test plan. This partnership among alliances, leverages on the cumulative work and technological advances of many industries to bring smart grid benefits to consumers.

The joint certification and test program, selected by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in 2009 as a standard profile for smart energy management in home devices, will be used to certify wireless and wired devices that support IP- based smart energy applications and end-user devices such as thermostats, appliances and gateways. It will address devices operating on one or more of a variety of underlying connectivity technologies and provide the smart energy ecosystem – including utilities, product vendors and consumers – assurances of application and device interoperability. The program would utilize the processes and best practices recommended by the Smart Grid Interoperability Panel (SGIP) for smart grid testing and certification programs.

With this announcement, the outreach of the profile would be tremendous, aided by channels these alliances offer. Beyond interoperability amongst legacy and new devices targeted in the smart energy space, what can we see beyond this partnership? Perhaps, from a stack perspective, product engineers can now cherry-pick the best PHY/MAC interface to suite their requirements with appropriate software and hardware architecture. This alleviates the rigidity that comes along with applying the same PHY/MAC in different regions, especially in emerging segments such as smart energy and healthcare. Also, continuous innovation will be an ongoing occurrence at this layer (makings things cheaper and better) and this benefits everyone.
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