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ABI Research Blog (99)

Disturbing numbers on UAE's Cybercrime situation

Nov 22, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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A recent cybercrime report published by Norton for the 2011, brings some very disturbing figures about the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to light.

  • Two UAE residents are cybercrime victims every minute
  • 76% of UAE residents are victims of cybercrime
  • UAE residents spent on average 16 days trying to resolve cybercrime attacks
  • About $611.3 million has been lost to cybercrimes, $209.7 million in actual cost, with the remainder equalling the cost of recovery over the 12 months the study was conducted.
  • 56% of the UAE's population uses mobile internet. Of that number, 20% were victims of cybercrime.
  • Mobile security threats in the UAE are reported to be growing at an alarming rate.

Adoption of the mobile internet shows no signs of slowing down, so increasing numbers of mobile users are in danger of having their systems hacked. They also face the danger of having hackers steal their personal information (user IDs and passwords, for example). Worst of all, with the popularity of mobile banking increasing daily, mobile internet users risk having hackers steal their hard-earned cash. These threats are especially high on open source platforms such as Android.

Factorsthat contributed to the rise in cybercrime in the UAE include social media, unemployment, ease of attaining tools to conduct attacks, lack of awareness.

Although the current situation may seem bad, but it does create huge opportunities for operators​ to harvest on using applications and cloud services.

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UK: Get Ready for Two New Motorola Xoom 2 Media Tablets

Nov 16, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Motorola's Xoom 2 is coming to the UK and Ireland first. Where does this media tablet fit in the increasingly crowded market?

In its most recent financial quarter, Motorola Mobility announced it had shipped only 100,000 additional Xoom media tablets. While widely viewed as selling poorly, this decrease in product volume could be attributed to phasing out the original product in advance of the second-generation Xoom 2.

Unlike the Xoom launch in February 2011, Motorola Mobility faces much stronger competition from a broader cast of media tablet players, including: Acer, ASUS, HTC, LG, RIM and Sony among others. The most noticeable difference between the first and second-generation Xoom models is the cut corner mechanical design. While the supplier says the shape change makes it easier to hold the product, one has to wonder if the legal spat between Apple and Samsung over visual identity also motivated the change.

Xoom 2 won’t be the first media tablets to launch in Western Europe. Both Samsung and ViewSonic launched their first media tablets in the region as well. The bigger news with the Xoom 2 launch is the 8.2” Media Edition model. This is a smaller display than the standard Xoom and Xoom 2 models with an emphasis on the media playback experience.ABI Research isinterested in seeing how consumers respond to the two models and if new use cases for the media tablet emerge.

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Nokia Windows 8 Tablet to Set Sail with Mid-2012 Launch

Nov 16, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Is the familiarity of Windows on a PC and the potential for similar experiences on a mobile device – such as access to common data files and applications – what the market is missing to see broader media tablet adoption? Today, Microsoft offers Windows 7 and Windows Phone 7 software platforms for different device form-factors, but the synergies between the two are few.

Compounding the issue is the dominance of ARM-based processor designs in media tablets; a segment that Intel x86 architecture has admittedly been absent for the first product wave. Windows 7 doesn’t work on ARM processors, but Microsoft aims to address that in the next major release of its full computing OS – Windows 8 – and a build specifically for ARM-based systems. Little is known about the readiness of Windows 8 for ARM on tablets. At the Microsoft BUILD conference in September, Samsung tablet PCs were given to attendees with an early developer preview of Windows 8. This first glimpse into Windows 8 on a tablet was powered by an Intel Core i5 dual-core processor similar to those found in mid-range laptop and desktop PCs. How well Windows 8 performs on an ARM-based device remains a well-guarded secret.

Nokia joins other system OEM companies, including Dell, HP, and Samsung, in positioning a Windows 8 tablet for launch in 2012. Notice that all of these suppliers except Nokia have a Windows 7 tablet in the market today for business users, many of which are built around the decade-old x86 Tablet PC architectures and not a consideration for consumers and the mass market. What exactly does Nokia bring to the party that today’s Windows tablets are lacking? Only Nokia can answer that question.
The company’s foray into “Internet Tablets” with the elongated N700, N800 and N900 series have not exactly made it a contender in the media tablet market. However, the company is rapidly working to transform itself back into a world-class brand and supplier. Its partnership with Microsoft for Windows Phone on new handsets could be the first of many device and OS pairings from the two vendors.
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Should Apple's iPhone 5 support TD-SCDMA? Nokia is with Windows Phone 7.5...

Nov 15, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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China, and China Mobile in particular, is very keen on TD-LTE. It is seen as the natural successor to TD-SCDMA, China’s domestic 3G standard. While Wang Jianzhou, the CEO of China Mobile, would be overjoyed if the iPhone 5S did support TD-LTE, it may be more pragmatic for Apple and China Mobile to ensure that TD-SCDMA is added to the iPhone 5.

China is Apple’s fastest growing market. Apple’s largest revenue generating Apple store is not in New York, but rather in Beijing.Remarkably, China Mobile already has 9.5 million iPhone users who purchased their handsets through the grey market. Those 9.5 million China Mobile iPhone users cannot access the operator’s 3G network.

Nokia recently announced that it is launching a Windows Phone 7.5 smartphone with TD-SCDMA support for China Mobile.

Full ABI Insight can be found at:

http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1009823

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Nokia Will Need More Asha To Help Regain Market-share

Nov 15, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Nokia will no doubt receive aboost from thelaunch ofits ‘clutch’ of Nokia Ashas (Hindi for "hope"), the 200, the 201, the 300 and the 301.

Much was made of the 200for being dual SIM and the 300for being preloaded with Angry Birds. We are not sure these handsets will be enough to hold back the tide of competition beating on its Indian shores. Only one of the Ashas was dual SIM. Surely more dual SIM handsets are needed?

Nokia will still need to continue to aggressively refresh its low-end and ultra-low end handset models if the vendor is intent on further regaining some of its lost market-share. In 3Q-2011, Nokia made swingeing cuts to its wholesale pricing that helped the vendor to claw back market-share from 24.5% (2Q-2011) to 27.8%. While market-share swung up, profit margins swung down. Nokia cannot keep on hacking away at retail prices to boost market-share. Nokia will need to ensure it has competitive product at sustainable pricing points, otherwise its market-share could well take a swan dive again.

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SMBs Embracing Smartphones for Business Purposes - Dahhhhh!!!

Nov 8, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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A headline this morning was that small businesses in emerging markets are using smartphones for business purposes. Dahhhhhh!!!. Small businesses, regardless of region,have been the most aggressive in using mobile technologies purchased from their mobile operator for business use. Before smartphones, it was voice and text messaging. When IM services became more widely available - small businesses were using it. Blackberry BBM allows keeping a record of conversations.

The difference now is that smartphones offer more capabilities primarily through downloadable apps. My plumber in 2009 was using an iPhone app to invoice me for services. For developed regions, small businesses were also the most progressive with adopting mobile broadband services because they could just go out and buy it and not wait for IT to approve.

The difference now is that there is a huge opportunityto sell tosmall businessesthe apps and services that have traditionally been the domain ofthe large business.Cloud computing is enablingthis opportunity andcomes in the form ofMicrosoft 365,Google Apps,mobile app development, content management, mobile device management, andFMC (ex: Vodafone'sOne Net Express).Operators are in agreat positionto capitalize on the SMB market butexpect everyone to try to gain a piece of this pie​

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Nintendo Considering Support for 2 Wii U Controllers for Local Gaming…Is This Recipe for Disaster?

Nov 8, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​According to the rumor mill Nintendo is reportedly considering local multiplayer scenarios that support 2 touch screen controllers (simultaneously). This feature was not supported when Nintendo unveiled the next generation console at this past E3 (June 2011), an omission some thought was quite disappointing, but I foresee some potential complications.
This might fall under the same category of unforeseen mishaps that some users of the Wii experienced. It is a testament to good gaming that users become so engrossed they fail to comprehend the potential consequences of their actions – e.g. playing virtual baseball or tennis with a stick like controller. In fact some early issues with the strap (or no strap at all) caused some users to make the throwing action a bit too real as they hurled the controller – in some cases, quite tragically, into their new flat screen television. While consumers have gotten the hang of motion based controls, pointing to the Sony Move and Microsoft Kinect as well, the Wii U controller adds a new wrinkle to the equation.
Let’s imagine for the moment two people playing the same game in relatively close proximity of each other, using motion controls. This isn’t new and thus far there doesn’t seem to be any issues with users playing interactive games mere feet from each other. One could parallel this to an exercise or martial arts class where people follow an instructor – we don’t expect or anticipate classmates will inadvertently strike their neighbors (although I’m sure this has happened). But take that image and give each of them a separate screen to view and encourage them to move around independently – this would be the equivalent of tasking each martial arts student to try and kick a randomly floating orb (yes like Star Wars). With most of their attention on the orb and their task of kicking it, hilarity (and some bruises) are a very likely outcome. But in Nintendo’s case this might result in consumers dropping the tablet-like controllers…and if I had to bet on which would fare better, the hard floor or the controller, I would lean towards the former.
Psychology has shown that people, when given a focusing task, can often lose track of the surrounding environment (selective attention test – Daniel Simmons and Christopher Chabris). There are countless examples, but a popular one has subjects counting how many times certain basketball players dribble or pass a ball – during this task a man in a gorilla suit walks around the players. In this test quite a few of the participants never noticed or report seeing anything out of the ordinary and are shocked to see replay footage. This is the same reason why cell phones or texting can be troublesome while driving – we can only absorb so much of our environment and focusing on a small screen might invite potential problems. But time will tell, maybe Nintendo will introduce a collision warning system akin to the automobile industry’s blind spot warning systems.

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Is Disney / ABC warming up to digital distribution?

Oct 31, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today, both Amazon and Netflix announced that they had reached deals for streaming of ABC and Disney owned content. Netflix secured a short term renewal while Amazon's secured a new licensing deal.Content licensedincludes ABC Studios (Lost, Ugly Betty, Grey’s Anatomy, Desperate Housewives”), Disney Channel (Phineas and Ferb, Hannah Montana), and ABC Family (American Teenager and others). The deals also reinforced Netflix’s ‘rerun’ position, as their content license begins 30 days after the conclusion of the final episode of the season. Amazon Prime Instant Video – Amazon’s newer subscription video service included with Amazon Prime shipping, gained access to a smaller share of content with a similar ‘rerun’ model.

Hulu, owned by Disney / ABC, Comcast / NBC Universal and News Corp., continues to be the distribution partner of choice for recent TV content, with its ability to monetize it with both Advertising as well as Hulu Plus subscriptions (still less than the cost of cable but more than a TV antenna). Hulu’s owners recently cancelled their auction – Google wanted more content licenses than the parents were willing to bundle, while Dish Networks’ bids were too low. Therefore, Hulu will continue to be on a short lease to show the networks with can monetize same-season content more than it hurts their revenues from cable re-transmission fees.

Disney’s crown jewels, movie content under Disney and Touchtone imprints, was not included in the deal. This content is currently very limited in digital distribution, with Apple being the partner of choice both through iTunes as well as Disney’s own Digital File Disk included in some DVD and Blu-Ray purchases that allows download to Apple devices.
Headlines aside, these announcements do more to reinforce our positions that Amazon will continue to open their wallet to compete in subscription digital video distribution, while Netflix will recover some lost ground and remain the leader in over the top (OTT) video distribution for the foreseeable future. Hulu, with its unique license for recent content, will remain important.
We’ll continue to jump to headlines, such as those in the Wall Street Journal, reading “Netflix, Amazon Unveil Deals for Disney-ABC Streaming Content”, hoping that Disney movies are included and digital movie distribution is really ready to take off.

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Running Out of Numbers for Cellular M2M

Oct 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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In August 2011, the Dutch Ministry for Economic Affairs announced a public consultation on the proposed amendment to the Telephone Number and ISDN Services Plan. The amendment seeks to introduce new numbering ranges for M2M (machine to machine) communications. Specifically, the 097 number sequence has been recommended for M2M use, with other number ranges, such as the 06 sequence, reserved for M2M use in the future. While it’s uncertain how the amendment will fair, the proposal highlights a growing concern in the industry that with the expected billions of M2M devices eventually coming online, there simply will not be enough numbers to address them all.

This concern over numbers for M2M (specifically for MSISDN numbers that identify mobile stations on cellular networks) is relatively recent. Far more attention has been paid to the issue of IPv4 (Internet Protocol version 4) addresses running out, and the resulting need for the global Internet to move to the IPv6 protocol to greatly expand the number of available addresses. Nevertheless, if we are to achieve the scale in the cellular-based Internet of Things that many predict – such as Ericsson’s 50 billion devices by 2020 aspiration – it will be necessary to provide identification capabilities beyond current cellular number ranges.
Fortunately, there are potential solutions available. At present, the most likely solutions are 1) open up new numbering ranges, 2) use service layer proxies, 3) use gateway proxies, or 4) use IMEI “transforms” to create pseudo-numbers for M2M. In the near term, the present quantity of numbers should suffice for the next 3 – 5 years, although this will vary by country and operator. One global operator with whom ABI Research has spoken claims it has numbers in the billions set aside for M2M, though this seems a distinct outlier compared with other operators.
Inevitably, as the numbering shortage issue starts to become more acute, all of the solutions mentioned above will be used; each presents advantages and disadvantages. ABI Research is confident that as the numbering issue starts to become increasingly top of mind in the industry, a permanent solution will be found.
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Sprint Shifts to LTE for 4G – the Impact on M2M

Oct 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Sprint announced on 25 October 2011 that it would deploy LTE-Advanced on its 800 MHz spectrum by the second half of 2013. This follows on its previous announcement earlier in the month that LTE – not WiMax – would feature as its main 4G technology going forward as part of the company’s “Network Vision” infrastructure deployment. The announcements represent a “sea change” in the 4G market, as Sprint had been one of the few major MNOs in the world previously to espouse a WiMax-based 4G strategy. Clearly, this also has in impact on 4G M2M, and it is now clear that WiMax will play an increasingly niche role in the M2M market going forward.

M2M applications are not typically associated with high-bandwidth 3G and 4G cellular technologies. For many M2M application developers and customers, 2G technologies are “good enough” for exception-based, or otherwise intermittent or low data transmitters. Nevertheless, it’s clear that for some applications – particularly automotive telematics, smart grid distribution automation, video surveillance, and digital signage – higher bandwidth is more optimal.
Also, there is increasing concern that M2M assets deployed in the field for 7 – 10 years, or more, could “out-live” the current network infrastructure. That is, if a remote device is deployed on a GPRS network, and the MNO shuts-down the GPRS network, the remote device will have to be replaced/upgraded in the field. This “future-proofing” concern has also sparked an interest in embedding 3G technologies even in applications where 2G speed may be perfectly adequate.
Sprint had for several years touted the benefits of WiMax for M2M. These mainly revolve around lower costs relative to LTE, and even to CDMA technologies. WiMax modules are currently priced in the mid-$30s, about the same costs as the lowest-priced 3G WCDMA modules. WiMax and LTE face dramatically different in cost considerations; WiMax has benefitted from fewer RF chains, and no backward compatibility requirements with 3G.
Cost a significant consideration for M2M, but so is coverage. With the Sprint announcements, it now appears that WiMax will be a niche connectivity technology for M2M. WiMax for M2M applications will be mostly relegated to some utility networks and other closed, private industrial applications.
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