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ABI Research Blog (99)

Could Google TV ship on the majority of TVs by summer 2012?

Dec 9, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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According to MocoNews: “By the summer of 2012, the majority of the televisions you see in stores will have Google ( NSDQ: GOOG) TV embedded in it,” Schmidt said on stage at the Le Web conference."

Connected TV’s will represent around 35-40% of total TV shipments, by mid-2012. They tend to be offered on units in the $400 price-range, and up. So, right off-the bat, we think Mr. Schmidt misspoke. We believe Mr. Schmidt meant to say: By the summer of 2012, the majority of connected TVs you see in stores will have Google TV embedded in it.
So, in terms of connected TV (Smart TV) penetration, we expect Google TV on Sony, Samsung and LG TVs early next year. Together, these account for roughly 40% of US shipments. If you add in Vizio – another likely candidate -- you’re north of 55% of US shipments.These manufacturers (especially Samsung) have invested significant amounts in their own platforms, including enabling App ecosystems of their own. Even if they introduce Google TV into some of their products, they are likely to remain test platforms for some time. For instance, Sony (one of Google TV’s launch partners) only shipped Google TV on 4 models of a lineup of a few dozen connected TVs.
Ultimately, then, it depends on how you define Google TV 2.0. If you define Google TV 2.0 as a single app from within the Google universe (i.e., a YouTube App that leverages its new leanback channels), then he may be right. If you define it slightly more broadly, to include the ability to run Google Apps – possibly in a way which coexists with native apps – then it will be easier to achieve. However, we currently think of Google TV as being the full Android O/S (including Google Applications) – in this case, we see it being mid-2013 before CE manufacturers rely on this, assuming reviews of platforms being demo’ed at CES and released early next year are fabulous.
Therefore, we think Mr. Schmidt is dreaming a little bit.
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I'm Not Surprised by Verizon's and Google's Mobile Wallet Spat

Dec 7, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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So it is being reported this week that Verizon Wireless is blocking Google Wallet​ from being pre-installed on Nexus smartphones on its network, and also from being downloaded by its subscribers from the Android Market.

All I can really say is, "Why is anyone surprised by this?" Verizon is investing heavily in its own mobile payment platform, Isis,with its MNO partners at AT&T and T-Mobile. Why would it promote a rival service ahead of its own launch? Yes, you can argue that by enabling Google Wallet, Verizon will be promoting the wider awareness and usage of NFC and contactless payments. But when have MNOs ever looked at it like that? Anywhere?

Possibly sensing a backlash from the media and possibly also end-users, Verizon has now been reported as citing technical and security issues relating to the secure element. Specifically, it was quoted as saying "Google Wallet does not simply access the operating system and basic hardware of our phones like thousands of other applications. Instead, in order to work as architected by Google, Google Wallet needs to be integrated into a new, secure and proprietary hardware element in our phones."

There may be something I don't know but my instant reaction here is "What, you men like every other NFC-based payment service, Google Wallet needs a secure element? You don't say??" This might be particularly ironic given that Verizonoperates a cdma network, and doesn't therefore use SIM cards, which is the primary alternative for housing the secure element (as opposed to the handset itself).

The keyword in the statement might be "proprietary" or perhaps it is the fact that Google would effectively own the secure element that concerns Verizon. Either way, this highlights the on-going business-related barriers which have blighted and delayed NFC since someone first suggested making contactless payments with a mobile device. Hopefully a spirit of cooperation, interoperability and openess will prevail soon enough, but for now expect more of the above.

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India FTTH cost too high for consumers

Dec 2, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​India’s state owned telecom operator, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) has recently launched its fibre to the home broadband service in Pune.

The service is available at different speed including 20 Mbps, 50 Mbps and 100 Mbps. The pricing of FTTH broadband service from BSNL is $ 526 for 20 Mbps speed, $950 for 50 Mbps and $ 1700 for 100 Mbps speed with no download limit.

Like other Asian Pacific countries, the government of India has been aiming to deploy a nationwide fibre optic high speed network. However, the high cost is making fibre to the home service remains out of the reach for many of the households in India.

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NSN's Sale of WiMAX Business to NewNet

Dec 2, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) has offloaded its WiMAX business unit to little known NewNet Communications. NSN had acquired the WiMAX unit from Motorola earlier in July 2010, but the deal was only finalized in May 2011 after it ran into a number of hurdles. As a part of its recent restructuring effort NSN has been in the process of offloading non-critical business units. Recently NSN sold its microwave unit to Dragonwave and has recently announced 17,000 layoffsas a part of a €1 billion cost cutting plan.

NewNet Communications is a US based technology firm with a history of acquiring distressed assets with an aim of turning them around. This includes UTSTarcom’s IP messaging and PDSN assets, SS8 Networks signaling and SMS products, and Traxcom’s secure transaction processing platform.

Apart from acquiring 300 staff based in US and China, NewNet will get all of the WiMAX portfolio including access points, base stations and ASN gateways for 802.16d and 802.16e. NewNet is also acquiring 43 of NSN’s WiMAX customers who have been caught in the middle of the NSN-Motorola deal, and have been desperately searching for a resolution.

However, it’s not clear whether NSN has retained any dual mode TD-LTE/WiMAX assets or is in the processing of continuing development of such solutions. NewNet has stated that it hasn’t acquired any such dual mode TD-LTE/WiMAX base station assets.

Huawei who is one of the key rivals of NSN, has been marketing its dual mode TD-LTE/WiMAX Single RAN solution to transition WiMAX operators to TD-LTE. If NSN does lose out on dual mode LTE/WiMAX deals, Huawei is likely to make the most of this opportunity, which could hurt NSN’s TD-LTE business, at the cost of improving overall profitability at the firm.

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Carrier IQ: Guilty Until Proven Innocent

Dec 1, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The internet and radio airways were abuzz today upon the revelation that software on users mobile phones allows tracking every website, text message and keystroke they make. Carrier IQ's software is used to help operators diagnose customer service problems to determine if issues emanate from the device, an app or the network.

Upon reading the news reports and the blogosphere posts, it is as if Joe McCarthy has been installed on every mobile phone. Senators are demanding answers from Carrier IQ(Al Franken) and Google is stating it has no involvement with the software's appearance on Android devices (which is true to the best of our knowledgebut they track every search we make from their search engine.)

While personally I think the blog reactions and media reports are riding on the sensational (CNNMoney entitles their article: "Carrier IQ: Your phone's secret recording device" - why couldn't they say: "Carrier IQ: Your phone's secret diagnostic tool"?), the positive is that more discussion will ensue on mobile phone security, personal privacy, and mobile quality of service for the most personal of devices, the mobile phone.

Are their flaws in Carrier IQ's software, business processes and marketing communications which could have been avoided - who knows? However the software is designed to help isolate customer services issues and every wireless sub demands quality service. It is interesting how customer sentiment changes from negativeto less negative or even positivewhen customers are shown the utility brought about by the reviled product or service. Google should be reviled but we all use it and its customer base continues to grow.

The court of public opinion can be brutal -but I say give Carrier IQ a break and have some honest discussions about the risks and benefits.​

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Sprint and Clearwire Finally Get Their Act Together

Dec 1, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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I had no doubt an agreement between Sprint and Clearwire would happen simply because it had to. Sprint and Clearwire need each other. Sprint's entire 4G service is currently on Clearwire's network. Most of Clearwire's subcribers are wholesale subscribers, nearly all of the subscriber additions are wholesale subscribers, and those are just about all Sprint subscribers (mostly 4G smartphones). The cable companies that are MVNOs of Clearwire have not been successful in selling those solutions for various reasons. So Clearwire and Sprint are too entangled to let anything go wrong.

In addition, Sprint's future 4G plans need Sprint. Sprint's initial LTE plans were to essentially be "narrowband" LTE in a small part of Sprint's 1.9 GHz spectrum, similar to MetroPCS's deployment of LTE. Only further out would it be able to levarage 800 MHz spectrum that is currently being used for iDEN (which is being phased out). That leaves Sprint almost nowhere competitively - it would barely keep up with its competitors over time. All of the spectrum advatage Sprint had been touting for years was based on Clearwire's vast amount of spectrum. It has been technically non-existent since Sprint left out mention of it a few months back. Today, however, an agreement is in place that will have Sprint support Clearwire financially and technically, and will let Sprint have access to a spectrum-superior LTE network that will operate in TDD mode. The two companies will work together now instead of like two fighting siblings.

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Just How Much Online Video Can We Consume?

Dec 1, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​We recently had an internal discussion about consumption of online video content. It’s a bit of the yin/yang of OTT video.

If more online video (with better quality) is made available to me does that mean I will necessarily watch more of it? If I substitute broadcast/linear TV for VOD/OTT then this might be true, but likely not at 50% annual growth (which is implied by some recently published reports). There is a finite amount of time people spend watching video and just because something is cheaper or there is more of it does not mean consumption must go up in kind. One could compare this to pay TV channels – back in the day when we only had 30-40 channels did people watch significantly less TV compared to today when we have 100’s? Maybe a little bit, but there are certainly diminishing returns and at the end of the day most people still only watch a handful of core channels that fit their interests/needs, most is just extra.

The rise in media tablets presents an interesting wrinkle and while these devices might prove a disruptive force, in the end the “second screen” won’t replace the TV - video consumption will evolve, but not radically change. We will certainly use these personal devices to augment our social, productive, and entertainment lifestyles, but despite the cornucopia of applications and services these devices, along with the associated wealth of content, will not become the center of our lives.

So, ultimately, the balance comes between the Yin (pervasiveness of content) and Yang (lifestyle) – the edges may appear to move, but ultimately balance is maintained.

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Why Non-Payment App's May Take NFC Mass Market First

Nov 30, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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In order to meet rising demand and requests for opinion, guidanceand data on non-payment applications and services, we have just published our new report looking at the potential​ for NFC tags. New products from tag and inlay manufacturers, such as Avery Dennison, Identive Group and UPM Raflatac, are now enabling this market to flourish and providing greater levels of competition, which is needed to help give service providers a choice. The standardisation by the NFC Forum for Types 1-4 has also helped moved things forward although this is focused on ISO 14443 and there remains work to be done with regards to ISO 15693 tag reading.

In brief, our findings were for a quickly accelerating market, albeit from a small starting point and with a slight blunting in the short term. The vast majority of shipments will focus around smart posters, information pick-up and marketing related services. More can be found about that here in our press release.

Whilst much has been made of NFC and contactless mobile payments, it is only in the past six months that the focus has broadened to look at the wider picture. I have said before that NFC can enable and enhance services and bring applications into the physical world, making them more interactive. The thought now occurs to me that this may well be what takes NFC mass market. That is to say, it will be these open, non-secure applications which will be the fastest growing area for NFC - not payments (which continues to labour under the burden of security, standards, certification and an evolving business model consisting of partners that would prefer to compete than cooperate).

The hurdle of widespread handset availability remains to be overcome, and this will still be driven by payments. However, in terms of usage, (some) consumers may remain wary of security and may hold back from using an NFC smartphone to make a payment. By comparison, the trust barrier to tapping to access a voucher, access a local mapor download a movie trailer is much smaller, and therefore level of use and acceptance is likely to be much higher. As such, I think that it can be said that open (non-secure) applications will be the ones to take NFC mass market.

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From $40 to $400: Micromax’s Leap of Faith with the Superfone

Nov 30, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Micromax Mobiles has launched its latest smartphone in India called the “Superfone”. As the name suggests, Micromax is trying to establish itself into a new orbit with its latest offering. Micromax A85 Superfone is powered with 1 GHz dual core NVIDIA Tegra2 processor and Android 2.2 OS, which can be upgraded to 2.3 (Gingerbread). In addition, Micromax brings a new feature to the plate, gesture control, which means you just have to wave your hand to command the phone. It can be used to answer/reject /silence incoming calls, or turn on the speaker during a call. It also allows users to scroll/navigate through emails, contacts, photo gallery and music playlists using hand gestures. The device has a 3.8” Gorilla glass capacitive touchscreen (480X800 pixels), 5 MP rear camera, VGA front camera and supports 3G and Wi-Fi both.

Other than Android 2.2 OS, the specifications undoubtedly are impressive, especially the innovative gesture control feature. But the big question remains, will the price sensitive Indian consumers shell out INR 18,990 ($360) to buy a smartphone from Micromax when they can get an iPhone3GS or the latest Blackberry Curve smartphones(9350 and 9380) for INR 20,990 ($400) and a number of devices from Samsung and Nokia within the same price range? Micromax is undoubtedly one of the most established local players and the most innovative of the lot. But it still carries the perception of a brand targeting the lower end of the market. An upward brand extension is always difficult, especially when the success factor of the brand has primarily been low-cost devices. It would be a tough battle ahead for Micromax to move out of its comfort zone and establish itself in the mid/high end segment competing directly with the established global players.​

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Libelium’s Vehicle Traffic Monitoring Platform

Nov 29, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Libelium recently launched its vehicle traffic monitoring platform that enables system integrators to create a real-time system that monitors vehicular and pedestrian traffic in cities and buildings. This new system uses Bluetooth and ZigBee double radio features to link up vehicles and people by Bluetooth devices in a given street, footpath, or roadway. The sensor data is then transferred by a multi-hop ZigBee radio, via an internet gateway, to a server.

These types of traffic monitoring systems offer significant benefits. Reducing road congestion through real-time traffic warnings that will reduce journey times and wasteful emissions. Additionally, these systems could be introduced into other operations, such as, shopping centers, airports, and sports stadiums. The sensor data could be used to assess the suitability of emergency evacuation plans or identify "hot" pedestrian routes for marketing and advertising purposes.

Other companies, such as TraffiCast are also offering traffic monitoring systems for travel time and average road speed information via their BlueToad technology. Again, the systems use media access control (MAC) protocols to detect mobile devices in vehicles such as mobile phones, headsets, and music players via Bluetooth technologies. The sensors are able to detect devices up to 50 meters, which more than covers a six lane roadway.

Smart transportation has been a key agenda in some cities and countries for a while. In Japan, police are mandated by the government to provide traffic information and vehicle information and communication systems (VICS) have been in place since 1996. The traffic data is reported to the Japan Road Traffic Information Center (JARTIC), processed by Japan's VICS Center and broadcasted by radio beacons on expressways, infrared beacons on major city roads and highways, and FM multiplex transmitting via existing FM channels.

It is estimated the world traffic system market was worth almost $1.3 billion in 2011 and the market is projected to increase steadily over the next five years. ABI Research's latest reports on Smart Cities and Traffic Information Systems, provide addition detail.

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