After years of stalled progress, China’s Embedded Subscriber Identity Module (eSIM) market is beginning to stir like a waking dragon.
By 2030, China is projected to become the world's largest consumer market. Unfortunately for eSIM technology vendors, the Chinese consumer market has been elusive as regulatory constraints have prohibited the use of eSIM in the country.
However, these final roadblocks are being eradicated.
Led by China Unicom, smartphone eSIM is expected to arrive in the country in late 2025.
But China Unicom is not alone, as other major Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) are equally eager to simplify device provisioning for their customers. Shipments for eSIM-enabled smartphones will skyrocket over the next 5 years. This increase is in line with a growing consumer base that is technologically literate and the buildout of the necessary infrastructure (Internet of Things (IoT), existing capabilities for inbound travelers).
ABI Research’s report, The eSIM Smartphone Opportunity in China, brings clarity to this growing space. It assesses how the global eSIM markets will be impacted by the rollout in China, helping network operators, connectivity service providers, eSIM platform vendors, and chipset suppliers meet customer expectations.
Key Takeaways:
- Consumer eSIM is coming to China in late 2025. While eSIM has existed in select non-consumer spaces, its support in the smartphone market has been nascent due to security concerns.
- Apple dominates smartphone eSIM shipments. Apple will be the predominant smartphone OEM supporting eSIM in China. However, the American-based firm will face greater competition in China than in developed U.S. and European markets. Beyond the usual Apple and Samsung, the Chinese eSIM market will experience significant device shipments from HONOR, OPPO, Xiaomi, and vivo.
- China Unicom is spearheading consumer eSIM in China. The mobile network operator is rolling out eSIM in late 2025. Other Chinese MNOs and eSIM platform vendors will watch closely to perceive consumer demand, assess deployment challenges, and identify security standards to comply with.
- Chipset makers will be affected early. Mass production of eSIM-enabled smartphones is expected in the coming years. This will force chipset suppliers to accommodate high-security needs and evolutionary device improvements.
Smartphone eSIM Market Projections in China
According to ABI Research, annual shipments of eSIM-enabled smartphones in China will increase from 17 million in 2026 to 125 million by 2030.
As usual, Apple-made devices lead the way, accounting for 75% of eSIM-supported smartphones in 2026. But this number will fall to 36% by the decade’s end as the most dominant smartphone manufacturers in the Asia-Pacific region increase their eSIM penetration rates.
Apple is accustomed to being the smartphone market leader in developed markets. While ABI Research anticipates Apple to continue to be one of the top drivers of smartphone eSIM device shipments in China, the competition will heat up.
Generally speaking, the eSIM market in China is more diverse than in the United States and Europe. Although Apple and Samsung are still the top players, they have to square off against several popular Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) that are embracing eSIM technology.
Chinese smartphone manufacturers such as HONOR, OPPO, Xiaomi, vivo, and Huawei are increasingly supporting eSIM. For instance, ABI Research projects OPPO to support eSIM for 58% of all smartphones shipped in 2030, up from just 16% in 2025.
In terms of market shares, we forecast Apple’s share of total eSIM-enabled smartphone shipments in China to decrease by more than 2X. On the other end of the spectrum, OPPO, Samsung, and Xiaomi will significantly increase their eSIM shipment shares.
The year 2027 will be the big inflection point, as Apple’s market dominance is quickly challenged by soaring eSIM smartphone sales from other OEMs.
All Eyes Are On China Unicom’s eSIM Rollout
After a 2-year suspension due to security concerns, China Unicom is pioneering the eSIM market in China. The company reportedly launched an eSIM service page on its website in July 2025, confirming its intentions to target the domestic smartphone user base.
China Unicom possesses more influential power over the direction of eSIM in the country than any other company. To deliver eSIM services for its 340 million mobile customers, China Unicom will work closely with chipmakers, Remote Service Provisioning (RSP) vendors, and device OEMs.
The company shows a strong preference for device interoperability, epitomized by its engagement with GSMA standards and initiatives. China Unicom’s collaboration with open standards bodies also paves the way for international vendors to target the world’s second-largest population. Its partnerships with Thales and Giesecke+Devrient (G+D) demonstrate that the eSIM opportunity in China is not exclusive to local technology providers.
Details on China Unicom’s eSIM plans are still scarce. However, one thing we know for sure is that the company will be the one to set a precedent for other Chinese MNOs. What China Unicom does over the next 18 months will dictate how companies approach eSIM in the country going forward.
Key questions that will be answered in early pilots include:
- What security regulations must be adhered to?
- Which technology vendors are best suited to meet the demands of the Chinese consumer market?
- How long will a successful eSIM rollout take?
- What are some common challenges to eSIM provisioning?
- Which use cases are driving the most interest in eSIM?
Of all the other Chinese MNOs, China Mobile is set up to be the next in line after China Unicom. China Mobile already has experience in travel eSIM for visitors to the country, making it a smooth transition to the local market. Other operators, such as China Telecom, lack an eSIM legacy and will, therefore, take longer to scale eSIM solutions across the country.
Other notable ecosystem players that we expect to have a strong eSIM presence in China are Redtea Mobile, Estcompeace, CEC Huada, and TMC.
How Are Chipset Suppliers Affected by the Advent of eSIM in China?
According to ABI Research market forecasts, eSIM penetration within the Chinese handset market will rapidly catch up with the rest of Asia-Pacific within a few years. Chipset makers will be the first to feel the ripple effects of increased eSIM demand in China.
Chipset vendors must adapt to accommodate both security robustness and hardware innovation:
- Security Robustness: Security is at the forefront of eSIM-enabled device development. Chipset suppliers must find a way to scale Secure Elements (SEs) and secure Low-Power Application (LPA) stacks across a massive volume of smartphones in a relatively short period of time. Not only is device security important for international credibility, but mandatory under stringent Chinese regulations. The 5G eSIM Security Innovation Joint Laboratory collaboration will be a key facilitator of vendors integrating secure full stacks into eSIM-enabled devices.
- Hardware Innovation: Beyond device security, chipmakers will also have to keep pace with hardware innovation. Device OEMs will continue to push the innovation envelope to provide incentives for purchasing new consumer devices. Therefore, chipset suppliers will be expected to support integrated SIM (iSIM), stacked chips, faster processing speeds, lower power draw, larger memory sizes, and other technology selling points.
Conclusion
Recent survey results from Proximus Global indicate that Chinese consumers are more enthusiastic about eSIM than most other countries. Although demand is strong, the Chinese eSIM market is just finding its wings.
China Unicom is, by far, the most influential player, and the mobile industry will closely scrutinize its every move through 2026.
The fate of eSIM in China is largely in the hands of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). The government entity can abruptly ban eSIM in the country on grounds of national security.
Digital identity vendors will be watching with ambivalent eyes. On one hand, the sheer volume of smartphones in the country makes it a compelling area of focus. On the other hand, the volatile regulatory environment in China makes it risky to allocate too many resources to the market.
Despite the risk, there is growing momentum and optimism has been uplifted for eSIM in China. The opportunity is immense, not just for China-based MNOs, but also for platform providers from the United States and Europe.
ABI Research’s eSIM & SIM Solutions research analyst team will continue to follow the most transformative trends in the industry and provide actionable guidance for organizations.
Related Resources:
- The eSIM Smartphone Opportunity in China
- Drivers, Challenges, and Opportunities in the Travel eSIM Market: The Factors Behind an Evolving Ecosystem
- eSIM Revenue Opportunity: Platforms and RSP
- eSIM in the Consumer and IoT Markets Market Data Overview: 3Q 2025