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ABI Research Blog (126)

Apple Joins the Media Tablet Fray with iPad Launch

Jan 27, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Apple Inc today announced the iPad media tablet. The media tablet device category, which began to gain traction in 2009, will come into its own during 2010 and beyond.


“While laptops are focused on productivity, and mobile phones are still primarily about communication, the main focus of media tablets is entertainment,” says ABI Research senior analyst Jeff Orr. A new ABI Research study on media tablets forecasts 4 million devices will be shipped worldwide this year.


“Content consumed on laptops and smartphones is increasingly based on Internet services,” says Orr. “Home networks and mobile broadband data services make viewing possible without wires. These media tablets could not have come to market any sooner than 2010.”


Designed for use in the home or office environment, the Wi-Fi-powered 9.7” touch device ($499-$699) resembles and functions like a large iPod touch. The tablet will utilize existing Apple services available for the smaller Apple media player and iPhone, including the iTunes music and app stores. An additional eBook storefront, called iBooks, is also being added.


Three additional models of the media tablet will include 3G wireless radios ($629-$829) for mobile data access over cellular operators. Initially available in the United States, special pre-paid pricing plans from AT&T Wireless ($15-$30) will be available. International carrier agreements are anticipated mid-year.



Media tablets, and specifically the iPad, pose challenges for purpose-built CE devices such as eBook Readers. Media tablets are able to display a wider variety of content, though with more frequent battery charges. Amazon.com has already made its Kindle eBook Reader application available for smartphones and personal computer operating systems, perhaps signifying the e-commerce company had read the tea leaves and the onslaught of media tablets.



Apple's entry into the media tablet market does not guarantee its success. Several functions -- cameras, external storage interfaces, support for Flash in the browser -- are absent from the first models. The iPad prices and gaps in functionality are likely to leave the door open for other media tablet vendors.

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ZigBee Takes on Active RFID with Announcement of Upcoming "ZigBee Retail Services" Public Application Profile

Jan 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today (January 25 st, 2010), the ZigBee Alliance announced the creation of a new public application profile – “ZigBee Retail Services”.Though it will be some months yet before this profile standard will be ready for implementation by adopters in the retail industry, this announcement underscores the aggressive push by the Alliance to permeate and dominate every conceivable market application for low power, low data wireless sensor networking.

Significantly, this announcement is a direct shot at the “active” RFID market.While “passive” RFID will preserve its growing auto ID niche in retail and elsewhere, due to its cost and energy consumption advantages over any “active” technology, ZigBee is well-positioned with this new profile standard to displace vendors of active in-building tracking technologies based on Wi-Fi, UWB, and various proprietary protocols.Namely



  • ZigBee Retail Services will leverage a host of application-level functions defined in the ZigBee Cluster Library for previous profile standards, such as Smart Energy and Healthcare.

  • ZigBee scale and volume, along with power consumption and price advantages over Wi-Fi, mean that retail and supply-chain solutions based on ZigBee will have a business case advantage over rival technologies for the foreseeable future.

  • The ZigBee Alliance is a burgeoning industry organization of over 340 members globally that gives ZigBee technology an enormous market push as the Alliance expands into additional market adjacencies.



Although ZigBee does not dominate every WSN market (notably, it has struggled with industrial automation, due to that market’s need for extremely low latency and robustness), it is fast becoming the de facto WSN standard.Traditional “active” RFID vendors should draw lessons from how ZigBee has competed against Z-Wave in the home automation market.
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Vodafone’s Sure Signal – Is this a turning point for the femtocell market?

Jan 19, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Vodafone UKs Access Gateway femtocell has been rebranded as Sure Signal. What prompted the operator to make changes? The femtocell device has hardly been in the market for 6 months now – some would say not enough time for Voda’s customers to get familiar with the device or its functionality. And now the new name?



Is Vodafone expecting a data deluge on its networks post IPhone launch? Is Vodafone one of the first operators to think proactively as opposed to reactively, as has been the case with AT&T in the US till now? Or is it simply the case that Vodafone has a large inventory of Access Gateway devices, which it could not sell?



On the bright side, the femtocell market couldn’t have asked for a better start to 2010. Vodafone, which is one of the worlds largest and most influential operator’s, has literally put its weight behind femtocells and would like to see more of its customers adopting the device in their homes and offices. Finally, there is the operator push that everyone was looking for, the aggressive operator stance that has been missing in this marketplace.



Sure Signal is now being marketed through T-shirts, billboards, the London tube twitter, facebook and is also on the home page of the Vodafone online shop. Sure Signal is the new avatar of the Access Gateway which in some sense was a badly executed launch, with many customers complaining of ‘three day’ waiting times for their femtocell to get activated. Also, the Access Gateway felt like Vodafone were embarrassed to talk about their poor coverage in specific locations or blackspots.



Sure Signal points towards a changed attitude towards femtocells from Vodafone. They are not embarrassed to say that their coverage might be poor when indoors, or in rural areas where there are a limited number of cell phone masts. I think this is a huge leap of faith for any operator. This could be a significant turning point for the femtocell market with other operators following Vodafone by example.



However, there are some parts of the announcement that fall short of my expectations. I will be elaborating on these issues in my upcoming Analyst Insight on the topic. However the central theme is that Vodafone could have used this opportunity explain to ‘first-time’ customers the true value proposition of femtocells. As many of us in the industry know, this extends beyond voice and includes data coverage as well as new and exciting femtozone applications. Could this be seen as a missed opportunity wherein Vodafone could have really transformed how the average mobile consumer views femtocells?
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Kineto offers Smart WiFi Offload

Jan 13, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Kineto Wireless has announced the launch of a UMA-based solution called ‘Smart WiFi Offload’ which can be ported onto smartphones allowing them to offer carrier -grade voice and SMS services over WiFi. In simple terms it is a UMA client in application form, which runs in the background on the smartphone. They hope to offer it initially over Android phones and have prototypes for Iphone and Nokia devices.



The application however has certain smarts built into it like the ability to do smart service selection, wherein the user can select the kind of services like Voice/SMS, Mobile TV, MMS that can be obtained from the operator and/or general Internet services that are not operator related. One of the big advantages though is that once the smartphone is connected through Smart WiFi to the operator’s core network, the cellular radio shuts down automatically saving critical battery life on the handset. The advantage is that operators can continue offering their crucial revenue generating services like voice and SMS when the user is connected via Smart WiFi. This is the key differentiator of Smart WiFi compared to normal WiFi.



What Kineto hopes to do is to sell more of their gateways to support Smart WiFI devices. Kineto hopes this could be a big seller to operators who already have UMA services on offer and are losing revenue to services like Skype. More importantly they would like to convert non-UMA operators to UMA by installing their gateways, which conveniently can also support femtocells. The application will be available initially preloaded on some of the Android devices but there are plans for it to be sold through Application Stores like the Apple App Store for example.



Kineto’s timing for this might be slightly unfortunate as just last week T-Mobile decided to shut down their Hotspot@Home service which wasn’t earning any revenue for them. Offering low-price calling over WiFi has not really worked for operators till now and users seem far happier to use Skype or many of the other VoIP services to make calls through WiFi. How will Kineto’s Smart WiFi application help? Well, it has to be priced competitively to the VoIP services in the first place and the ability for users to continue using SMS and voice calls on their phone when connected to WiFi is definitely a big draw. Smart WiFi certainly is a new way of incentivizing smartphones users to switch to WiFi when indoors.



One teething issue that still remains is the inability to do handovers although the phone will switch to Smart WiFi once it spots a recognizable WiFi hotspot. Handover is a critical feature that needs to be solved fast, which Kineto says is complicated but will be solved soon. How soon remains to be seen.



While femtocells start to find their way into operator networks, Kineto hopes Smart WiFi will offload some of the capacity headaches that they face now. Utilizing a growing smartphone and WiFi hotspot user base, there is certainly something for Kineto to chew upon. The question is will this be only limited to the ‘UMA friendly’ operators like T-Mobile and Orange or will we see wider adoption from the likes of AT&T and O2 who are facing severe capacity crunches in their networks?
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ALU and Bell Labs push for efficient networks launching GreenTouch – will it be effective?

Jan 12, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Alcatel Lucent has announced an industry-wide initiative called GreenTouch, that calls for a 1,000 fold reduction in energy consumption in the telecom and Internet network. It has an impressive list of ‘founding members’ including operators like China Mobile and AT&T; research organizations like Bell Labs and IMEC; universities like MIT; and silicon vendors like Freescale. In all they have 15 members that make up the list of founding members, which reads more like a roll call aimed at showcasing the breadth and complexity of the effort.



At the impressive media event in London yesterday, they had their CEO Ben Verwayen and Bell Labs head Jeong Kim attending, apart from representatives from the 15 members. Together they tried to explain how scientists and engineers at Bell Labs had come up with a number that defines the minimum energy required for networks to operate. According to their calculations, in theoretical terms this is 10,000 times lower than what is achieved today.



Notwithstanding the fanfare, there were many sceptics amongst the audience including myself who were looking for a bit more of detail in this announcement, while trying to understand the true motivations for ALU who has been financially downbeat off late. Here are some of the points that stood out for me at the press conference:



- They used the old argument of the amount of CO2 emitted due to ICT, which we have heard many times, but failed to mention about the rising costs of energy - which in my view is the core problem that green networks solve.



- There was no differentiation between fixed or mobile networks or how much energy is being consumed or lost in each, or how their effort will tackle different elements of the fixed/mobile networks. During the question & answer session they did mention that wireless makes up majority of the 10,000-fold inefficiency. A bit more detail on this would have been useful.



- My main cause for concern: what is GreenTouch doing differently from the myriad of industry and academia efforts in the same or related fields like MobileVCE, Smart2020, GSMA Green Power for Mobile, EARTH (Energy Aware Radio and Network Technologies) etc? GreenTouch says that it will start with a clean slate, however isn’t there a danger that it might be reinventing the wheel to some extent? Do they plan on collaborating with all or some of the various green telecom efforts that have looked at the issue of inefficient telecom networks?



- They say that it is an open initiative inviting industry and academia to join. However, as someone pointed out during the press conference, ALU is the only telecom vendor on the list. Will the NSNs and Ericsson’s of the world join this effort? The fact that ALU is the face of GreenTouch might be a key hurdle in making this a ‘true’ industry-wide effort. I wonder if this was backed by the GSMA, whether it would have been more effective?



- Currently there are no standard bodies amongst the members, who would be critical in making this a success and implementing the system level architecture. If not, how does the new reference architecture get implemented into future networks? No sign of IEEE, ETSI or 3GPP? Again, this would help give it more credibility.



- There was an incorrect suggestion by ALU made during the press conference that current networks are built for performance and not efficiency. This is not completely true. If you compare mobile technologies through the years from First Generation AMPS down to Fourth Generation LTE there has been a 10-fold reduction in the amount of CO2 per subscriber. A large part of this CO2 reduction has been because of improved efficiencies in the protocols, spectrum efficiency, hardware and software processing etc. Each iteration of mobile technologies are more efficient than their previous generation. What I am interested in seeing is the difference between what ALU is proposing and what has been achieved until now? Why is the focus not on making incremental changes but on starting from a clean slate? Have the current approaches got us nowhere?



- They clearly tried to avoid any questions on how much this will cost for ALU or the consortium. They hope to get funding from governments worldwide and the members themselves. However no approximate value was mentioned the announcement. Maybe its early days and they will get their heads together to figure out how much it will cost.



- Lastly, on the question of IP (Intellectual Property) they said that they hope that it will be shared and be open. They should know that there are no easy answers or assumptions when it comes to IP. I hope they have a clear understanding amongst the members on the question of IP.



It remains to be seen how ‘open’ the effort is, how many new members join in, more importantly who joins in. On a positive and personal note I think it is commendable for ALU and Bell Labs to take up this challenge and dream of a cleaner future where networks are smarter and highly efficient. I sincerely wish that they are successful and can ‘truly’ work up collaboration within the industry. I only hope that their heart is in the right place and this is not just another ‘green’ campaign that only improves shareholder value.
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Is Android evolving too fast?

Jan 6, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Google announced the latest Android device the Nexus One today only two months after the release of the Droid device from Motorola. It appears that with every announcement, Android devices get a little better; the problem is that these devices are getting better every quarter instead of every year. Since its debut on the market over a year ago, there have been multiple OS versions and over 15 handsets released.

Unless you are a highly tech savvy consumer, you may not be aware of all the changes that are occurring in the Android OS. Consumers are aware of the new devices being released due to large marketing campaigns funded by operators and handset vendors, but not many can tell the difference between a 1GHz snapdragon implementation and a 500MHz one. Add to this the changes in OS capabilities and which carriers offer which OS version on which device and suddenly consumers can’t see the forest through the trees. The vast majority of consumers are still learning that Android is Google’s mobile OS and have yet to determine what the Android experience is.

A personal example: it took me longer than it should have to explain to a friend who had recently purchased a Droid Eris that her phone was not the new Droid from Motorola and what that meant. This conversation was quickly followed by a G1 owner also not understanding the difference between his device and the Eris (beyond the basic form factor differences). To date neither understands how these differences affect them and how they use their devices.

To be fair, Android is a relatively new mobile OS and application processors are in the midst of a switch to the next technology tier of multi-core and 1GHz speeds. Putting these two factors together, it can be expected that there will be many incremental improvements to Android handsets running on improved hardware. Add into this the fact that Android development cycles and hardware development cycles are currently out of sync, and it becomes apparent that the Android world needs some guidance to reduce the confusion and fragmentation.

The Nexus One announced today by Google may help to steer the Android handset market back towards true north and help consumers to understand what an Android handset should be…at least according to Google. With the Nexus One, Google is offering a handset where the software and the hardware are in developmental synch. This device can act as the bar for handset manufacturers to measure their Android implementations against. That is not to say that handset OEMs must make a device with all the latest bells and whistles to compete with Google, but that this device can be the statistical mean from which their offerings will vary. The release of the Nexus One will help consumers and handset OEMs tangibly understand what Google wants its software to do for the mobile handset. From this point, handset OEMs can set to the task of showing consumers what their handsets can do with Android.

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Ford and Kia to Steal Consumer Telematics Headlines at CES 2010

Dec 31, 2009 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Leading up to the CES 2010 show Ford has been in the news repeatedly with a range of planned extensions on its SYNC solution:



  • In-car Wi-Fi based on a cellular USB modem on SYNC 2.0


  • Mobile Applications Sync store and open APIs for trusted developer partners

  • iTunes Music tagging for later purchase on a factory-installedHD radio receiver

  • SyncMyPhone to synchronize address books and contact lists residing on a home computer


Unconfirmed rumors also hint at a partnership with Pandora for music streaming. All these innovations follow the same successful SYNC principle: allow users leveraging devices they already own at no additional cost. Ford increasingly looks like becoming the Apple of the automotive OEMs. This all contributes to a much-anticipated CES keynote from Fords Mulally.


At CES Microsoft will announce the long rumored UVO telematics service on Kia vehicles, its second OEM customer in the US. Like Fords Sync it will be based on the Windows Embedded Auto software platform. This was made possible by the exclusivity granted to Ford in the US to use Microsoft software expiring in 2008. Hyundai is expected to be the next brand to launch Microsoft-based telematics.


And telematics news is not just limited to the US. The first GM vehicle equipped with Onstar telematics featuring 14 different services shipped in China on December 20th, allowing GM to keep to its end of 2009 deadline. Ford has announced hybrid mobile navigation in Europe combining handset-based navigation and an embedded screen. And Microsoft recently referred to India as on of the next developing regions to see a SYNC-like offering in the coming years.
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Intel announces next-gen Atom processors. Do they have a lock on the 2010 netbook market?

Dec 21, 2009 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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In advance of the 2010 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Intel has announced the 2010 silicon line-up for its Atom family of processors and related system architectures. Intel and VIA Technologies x86-based processors have powered nearly all of first generation netbook computers. By 2011, ABI Research estimates that nearly 200 million cumulative netbook computers will have shipped worldwide. However, as the popular disclaimer for trading stock goes, past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance.


The x86-based netbooks have only started to receive competition in the last ninety days. Netbooks using processors based on ARM cores (from licensing partners including TI, Freescale, Qualcomm, NVIDIA and others) are launching with a vengeance in early 2010. These second-generation netbooks (both ARM-based and x86-based) tout longer battery life, high-definition multimedia playback and lower weight form-factors. A plethora of system announcements is expected during CES from both camps. All of this innovation spells C-H-O-I-C-E for consumers.


Business users will also find new netbook models specified to their liking. Qualcomm recently showed off a Lenovo device prototype that matches current netbook specifications, but uses Qualcomms Snapdragon processor. What does that mean for business users? Popular business PC brands, such as Lenovo, see an opportunity to address the low-cost computing market. The introduction sometime perhaps in the first half of 2010 will also test enterprise use of a non-Windows computer. ARM-based processors are only able to run Windows CE; not XP or the recently introduced Windows 7 OS. Will other PC OEMs race to follow Lenovos lead or watch from the sidelines? The development will be interesting to see unfold.

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The Next Step for Augmented Reality?

Dec 17, 2009 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Move over touch screen displays. Theres a potential new way of interacting with the digital world that could make waves over the next two years. Its called Sixth Sense, and is developed by MIT students.


The terms Internet of Objects and Augmented Reality have been buzz-words for a while. Pranav Mistry, a graduate student at MIT, Sixth Sense project may be a contribution towards making it real.


The Sixth Sense device is both simple in how it allows us to interact with the world, and versatile in the depth of interactive interactions that it promises to deliver. Through the use of a wearable web-camera, projector and smart-phone; it allows users to interact with real objects as they would with the digital world. Simulations of the technology have Mistry looking at flight boarding pass and have the projector beam Delayed or Boarding on to it. Other simulations have him take a photo by framing a scene with his hand; and then later view those photos, with multi-touch gestures usually found on the iPhone on the nearest wall, or table; or being able to dial a number by projecting a keypad on to the palm of his hand.


The Sixth Sense technology allows everyday objects, and practically anything in the world around us to be turned into an interactive, internet connected display. Complementary technologies such as Google Goggles, Googles new visual search and Microsofts Project Natal, a camera based immersive gaming experience can only serve to add to the possible experiences that Sixth Sense promises.


This is one scenario that "Augmented Reality" could be. If Augmented Reality reachescommercial reality; touchscreen displays and input technologies, for some, could become as archaic as the traditional T9 handset keyboard seems to smartphone users.

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Alcatel-Lucents Application Aggregation Play Will Developers Bite?

Dec 7, 2009 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Last week, Alcatel-Lucent made a bold move announcing they would help bridge the gap between MNOs and application developers with the introduction of their Application Exposure Suite.The suite is essentially an application aggregation play offering developers a one-stop shop to as many MNOs as A-L can sign on. Its bold for two reasons:

1) While it is a bit afield from A-Ls core network infrastructure HW business, A-L needs to find new revenue streams. Network infrastructure players are not exactly in an enviable position these days (see Nortel, Nokia-Siemens)

2) Aggregators will be essential to the growth of mobile applications, and there are no major players in the space right now. A-L was shrewd to jump in and contend in the space which to date has seen MNOs fending for themselveswith application developers (see Vodafone, Orange, AT&T, Sprint, Verizon)


While A-L has correctly identified a significant need and barrier to mobile application growth, the company faces several challenges to becoming successful with their offering:

1) Aggregator business cases are classic chicken-egg challenges does A-L need to convince a significant MNO to sign on as a customer to attract application developers, or do they need to secure a certain amount of compelling app developers to sign on an MNO?Most likely the latter.

2) Developer business case. How do developersreach subscribers withnon A-L customers?Lets say A-L fictitiously signs with SFR in France, but not with Orange or Bouygues.An application developer must determineif SFRs subscriber base represents enough addressable market to support a French business case.If it does not, then the developer must determine how to reach other mobile subscribers in France and how much it will cost them to do so.

3) Standardized development within A-L platform. Will A-Ls platform offer standardized APIs and capabilities to an app developer across A-L's MNOs? Is it realistic to think each A-L MNO will agree to A-Ls standardized APIs? Most likely not.That meansthe product, pricing and customer experience could be vastly different by MNO, making it difficult for the developer to market it.


Other initiatives are underway that might lead to a better situation for both MNOs and application developers. GSM Associations One API initiative, mobile web standards within the W3C and the BONDI project are pursuing standards for mobile web development. Aggregators who can leverage standards coming out of these initiatives might find acceptance from both MNOs and application developers.


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