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ABI Research Blog (113)

Chinese Ministry of Commerce Holds up Motorola Sale

Mar 9, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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It seems the Chinese Ministry of Commerce is flexing its anti-trust muscles. Nokia-Siemens Networks, since July 2010, has been weaving through the legal intricacies of getting various national and pan-regional approvals in place for its acquisition of Motorola’s cellular infrastructure business. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has today refused to give its approval, requesting more clarification.

It is a little curious. China’s domestic infrastructure vendors capture the lion’s share of infrastructure contracts awarded in China. So where is the anti-competition element?

It is possible that a certain amount of “national interest” is at play here. And it looks like Chinese Ministry of Commerce is using the rule book set out by the US Department of Justice/CFIUS.

Just written an insight on the topic.

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Vodafone and Bosch Team Up on M2M

Mar 3, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The Vodafone/Bosch Announcement

On March 1st 2011 Vodafone and The Bosch Group announced a partnership to provide customers with an integrated M2M application platform. The partnership is targeted at providers of industrial monitoring applications, such as elevator/escalator or air conditioning unit monitoring. The partnership combines Vodafone’s “Global Data Service Delivery Platform” (GDSP) with The Bosch Group’s “Multi-Service Platform” (MSP). Together, the integrated offering will make it easier for customers to develop and deploy industrial monitoring applications incorporating cellular network connectivity.

Partnerships Are Becoming Plentiful in the M2M Market
The Vodafone/Bosch announcement is the latest in a string of partnership announcements over the past year in the field of cellular M2M platform offerings. For example, AT&T announced partnerships with Axeda, SensorLogic, and Sierra Wireless (for the AirVantage SDP) at Mobile World Congress in February 2011. Likewise, Axeda announced a partnership with Sprint in March 2010.
While many partnership announcements have involved mobile operators partnering with multiple SDP vendors, the Vodafone/Bosch announcement involves the integration of M2M service delivery platform (SDP) functionality with M2M application platform (MAP) functionality. The GDSP is an SDP that serves to optimize cellular network connectivity for the needs of M2M applications. For example, the GDSP enables customers to self-provision and manage remote devices on the cellular network in a largely automated fashion. Meanwhile, The Bosch Group’s MSP is a MAP that enables customers to develop automated workflow applications incorporating remote sensors in industrial and commercial applications.
The integration of these two platforms solves both the “connection problem” – how to connect remote M2M devices over a cellular network – and the “application problem” – how to model the application and define logic, rules, and alerts.
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Apple Unveils iPad 2: Is It Enough to Stay Ahead of the Competition?

Mar 2, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Apple Inc. unveiled the long-anticipated iPad 2, the follow-on to the company’s successful media tablet introduction of 2010. The new iPad includes a lot of “2’s”, including a dual-core processor, two video cameras, dual UMTS or CDMA 3G protocol support, a pair of new Apple accessories, and two enclosure colors.

The iPad 2 incorporates an updated applications processor, dubbed “A5”, using a dual-core ARM Cortex A9 architecture. The use of multiple processor cores improves overall compute and graphics performance, and the Cortex A9 implementation is expected to offer battery lifespan similar to the first generation media tablet.

A pair of accessories – an HDMI output cable to connect an HDTV at resolutions up to 1080p and a new magnetic screen cover that doubles as a micro fiber cleaner – showed some of the greatest innovation this round. A new iOS release, version 4.3, introduces home media sharing and improved browser JavaScript performance, but left some features – namely Wi-Fi AP mode for mobile hotspots – exclusive to the iPhone 4 smartphone.

Pricing for the new iPad 2 models – three that offer only Wi-Fi connectivity and three more than offer Wi-Fi plus 3G cellular – remains unchanged. The iPad 2 models will support UMTS or CDMA air interface protocols, making it compatible with a wider range of mobile network operators. However, buyers must select which protocol/carrier they prefer at the time of purchase; 3G models will not be capable of changing carriers or roaming to different protocol networks after purchase.

The iPad 2 will be available for US buyers on March 11th, while additional countries (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Ireland, Hungary, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK) will commence shipment on March 25th.

With no price changes and only evolutionary additions to the original iPad’s capabilities, ABI Research expects the original iPad to be phased out quickly. Competitively, the addition of video cameras, a dual-core processor, and HDMI video output keeps iPad 2 in the running with other media tablets. Apple’s content ecosystem and integration with other Apple products remains a point of differentiation for the company.”

In 2010, Apple shipped nearly 14.8 million iPads over the trailing nine months of the year, approximately 85% of all media tablets shipped during the year and a significant increase from the 100,000 units shipped by all vendors during 2009.

With an influx of branded competitors from the PC and mobile handset markets (including ASUS, Dell, HTC, LG, Motorola, RIM, and Samsung), we do not expect Apple to maintain its 2010 share going forward. More than 40 million media tablets are expected to be shipped during 2011. The user experience quality remains a concern as hundreds of low-cost tablet launch this year.

Several questions remain: How will the new iPad attract incremental customers in an increasingly competitive media tablet market? What features has Apple left out that give others a competitive advantage? Is Apple missing the “prosumer” and business professional market with its renewedemphasis on consumer features and style?​

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DT and Orange Wi-Fi Services Cooperation - Traffic, Traffic, Traffic

Mar 1, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Whenever two operators (or any two companies for that matter) decide to partner, the benefits are always presented as good for the customer. The partnership message should be presented in this way.

However, the competitive viewpoint needs mention since competitors don't simply partner for customer value alone. DT and Orange are considering cooperationto share Wi-Fi assets. The question is why? Review of their mobile footprints show that they have fairly complementary mobile network footprints so they are not necessarily trying to avoid a customer acquisition war. Both are in the Freemove Alliance - are data roaming rates in the alliance simply unprofitable?Or have EU imposed data roaming rates pushed the alliance?

While these factors are likely contributors, the underlying reality for all operators is the rapid growth of mobile data traffic. ABI's own analysis shows mobile data traffic estimates continue to increase. The press release notes that "the international traveller of tomorrow will want to be able to download large amounts of data, for private or business reasons, without having to be burdened with the choice between WiFi access and 3G mobile access." This is an important statement as a few high bandwidth users will lower the threshold for overutilization if their use is during peak traffic times.

The reality is that even with data caps and overage fees, data traffic trends indicate that new networks and spectrum will be needed to handle increasing traffic. But operators need to use their capital efficiently because competition is limiting any margin gains through pricing mechanisms. The DT-Orange cooperation announcement demonstrates a new reality - operator tools for addressing the traffictsunami now include more than just optimization of their own network assets, but "openly"announcing the need to leverage others network assets as well.

The second half of this story remains to be seen -if the operator eases connectivity, can they reap some of the potentialrevenuebenefits?​

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Motorola Xoom "Free" Upgrade to 4G LTE Requires Shipping the Device via FedEx

Feb 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Buyers of the recently launched Motorola Xoom media tablet could be lured by marketing copy that states the device is "LTE ready". Since its unveiling at International CES 2011 in January, Motorola remained tight-lipped about the specifics for upgrading the 3G slate to 4G LTE service.

Could it be done via a software upgrade? Would an LTE modem module be sent to the Xoom owner for a field upgrade? It ends up that none of these scenarios will occur.

The Motorola Xoom has to be sent back to Motorola by the end-user for a module replacement, according to a Verizon Wireless "Getting Ready" for 4G LTE webpage.

The recommended process includes creating a backup of Xoom data on a Windows or Mac PC, wiping (erasing) sensitive data or encrypting it, and packaging the Xoom in a specially-made box and FedEx envelope.

Verizon Wireless and Motorola expect the LTE module upgrade and return shipping process should take no more than six business days to occur.​

The "return to factory" upgrade process is not expected to cost the Xoom owner any additional money, but it does cause an inconvenience - for those who are not able to use the device, the risk that one's tablet gets lost or damaged in transit, and those looking to use the media tablet outside of the Verizon Wireless network on a different LTE network or ownership outside of the US.

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Strong Nintendo 3DS sales in Japan and Possibility of ACCESS’ NetFront Browser…Proof the Portable Game Market can Coexist with Mobile?

Feb 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Early reports suggest retailers experienced stockouts of the Nintendo 3DS within 24 hours following the recent launch in Japan (selling nearly 400K units). While Nintendo has a strong following in its native country the launches in Europe and North America could very well have similar outcomes – this in light of a relatively weak launch title list and questions about the real value the glasses-free technology will add to the 3DS platform. But perhaps more importantly this comes at a time when some have questioned the long term prospects of a dedicated portable game player as mobile gaming continues to grow.
Coexistence of Portable and Mobile Gaming
While we have espoused in the past the likely continued demand for portable game players (e.g. from younger demographics and those who do not have a smartphone) it is also hard to argue the transition to mobile is not real and happening as we speak; Sony’s recent Xperia Play and PlayStation Suite announcements being just two such leading indicators of how this market is shifting. Although, at the same time the disparate strategies taken by Nintendo and Sony may also speak to those market segments where dedicated portable devices could have continued success, namely the young and casual gamers and the high-end.
In other words mobile gaming could fill in the “middle” ground with portable gaming satisfying the boundaries. Assuming this is the modus operandi for Sony and Nintendo for the coming years, Nintendo, perhaps more so than Sony due to its young and casual demographic will likely remain sheltered longer than Sony; hence Sony’s mixed product strategy (Xperia Play, PlayStation Suite, and mobile antenna built into some NGP models). With the rapid advancements (and shorter product cycles) in mobile hardware the Sony NGP’s hardware lead will also be contested sooner than what would have been true in the past. The future of these portable devices is also contingent upon extending the feature sets beyond gaming, which up until recently has been a mixed bag.
Media and Browsing
News leaked from Japan (although nothing official from ACCESS or Nintendo yet) suggesting the 3DS might get ACCESS’ NetFront browser sometime in 2011 – current Nintendo DS handhelds use Opera. The Sony PSP (and PS3) currently uses a version of ACCESS’ NetFront browser and more importantly is Flash-enabled (the Nintendo DS does not support Flash) – although the PSP is currently limited to Flash 6 (PS3 supports Flash 9). By reading a number of user forums it is clear that to some these limitations (either no Flash or older versions) are troublesome and detract from the browser. In addition experiences using both the current versions of the Opera browser (Nintendo DS) and ACCESS NetFront browser (PSP/PS3) on today’s portable game platforms have had mixed reviews and while it is easy to excuse these short comings as casualties of hardware constraints (in other words not necessarily the fault of ACCESS or Opera), the newer generation of portables will need to stand on equal (if not better) ground than some of the mobile device contemporaries for browsing to be deemed a valuable feature. The NGP is perhaps the best example where this next generation might stand toe-to-toe as it were, but we won’t know for sure until its launch draws closer and more details are released. In any event media sharing and browsing will be essential elements to a future portable gaming platform in order to keep pace with the rapidly evolving mobile/tablet markets.
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AT&T Retail Stores to Offer Amazon Kindle 3G

Feb 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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AT&T announced it will begin direct sales of the Amazon Kindle 3G eBook Reader device starting March 6th, 2011through its retail stores.

Since the introduction of the "international Kindle" device in 2009, AT&T and its roaming partners have been the 3G wireless connectivity provider ​for Amazon's devices.

Through the agreement, Kindle 3G will be sold at AT&T retail stores alongside the Apple iPhone, iPad, and Samsung Galaxy Tab devices for $189. However, it will not be available online via ATT.com

A recent ABI Research report, eBook Reader Evolution, found the majority of devices continue to be sold in the United States with Amazon seen as the largest device supplier.

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What does a Nokisoft smartphone look like before it is born?

Feb 23, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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With the official alliance announcements out of the way, Nokia and Microsoft can now set to work on bringing their first Nokisoft handsets to market. Thinking about the players and the smartphone market as it is today, I would like to begin speculation on what Nokia will be delivering to the world with its first set of Windows Phone handsets.

The first thing that needs to be considered is the absolute need for Nokia to be successful with Window Phone. Nokia does not have a plan B. To me, this implies a few things that Nokia must do to maximize its chances of success:

1. Get these devices on the shelf ASAP, and start building momentum to counter the inevitable decline of Symbian handset sales.

2. Not excellent, but flawless device execution. Nokia cannot afford to sacrifice device quality at a time when they are reestablishing the Nokia brand.
3. Like any big budget film, Nokia needs to open big and open wide. The first cadre of handsets have to provide solid eye candy and be available at every location a Symbian handset can be found.
Because things need to happen both perfectly and quickly (a terrible combination of requirements), Nokia cannot afford to be tinkering with experimental technologies, business models or avant-guarde handset design. Because Nokia will only have the time and resources to bring a few (I suspect 2 or 3) models to market, these handsets will have to address the broadest possible market segments, regions and price points.
In short, Nokia needs to deliver at least 1 mass market mid-priced handset and 1 high end (but still with broad appeal) device. Ideally, Nokia would also deliver a low-cost handset, but unless Microsoft is willing to give Nokia special hardware freedoms, I do not believe Nokia’s production scale will be able to push device costs below $250 until late 2012. I also do not believe Microsoft intends to give Nokia special hardware freedoms. Microsoft believes it allowed too much freedom with Windows Mobile and that has hardened Microsoft’s resolve to keep its new platform neat and tidy.
With little time and even less design freedom, Nokia will be forced to focus on the most popular features and handset forms that it has direct and successful experience with. I believe that Nokia’s situation will initially produce handsets with the following key characteristics:
1. Simple monolith touch screen form factors that comply with all of Microsoft’s hardware mandates. It is these hardware mandate that will lock Nokia into the mid and high range segments initially. This simple but popular from factor is still desirable today (when the design is occurring) although Nokia will have to quickly follow up with a slide out QWERTY option.
2. The higher end device will differentiate through a best in class camera and video experience. Nokia has had historic success with cameras and will need to carry this over to the new platform. The higher end device will likely incorporate aluminum and glass to convey it premium quality.
3. To retain its shelf presence while minimizing hardware SKU bloat, Nokia will rely on its old habit of one device with many color options. It is a cheap, simple solution to maximize retail shelf presence, and Nokia already knows how to do this.
4. Outside of a little silk screened Nokia logo, Windows Phone will own the majority of branding presence through its mandated UI.
I an effort to show progress, Nokia demonstrated some of its initial design concepts below. I believe that these are not just conceptual designs, but the only design options available to Nokia at the moment. I would not be surprised if the only new things Nokia could add to this picture is two additional colors (I suspect green and red). When it comes down to it, Nokia does not have the time mess around with anything else if they plan to release anything in 2011.

Nokia Mock ups.png
Source: http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadget.com/media/2011/02/11x0211nokiaconcept.jpg

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Understanding Technology Through Travel - Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia

Feb 23, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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My (Sam Rosen) Executive MBA Class at Arizona State University’s WP Carey School of Business recently took our international trip to Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. While I was unable to load the agenda with as many media and technology visits as I would have liked to, I was able to reach some conclusions about technology penetration in developing economies:

The GDP of Thailand (forecast 2011) is $4647, Vietnam $1296 and Cambodia less than $1000. While Vietnam’s productivity is lower, its higher energy, neon electronic signs, and more apparent use of technology give it the aura of a more advanced nation (this may have been skewed slightly by the fact more of my time was spent in Ho Chi Minh City with less rural exposure in Vietnam).

Higher GDP leads to higher discretionary income which leads to more adoption of pay TV (and advanced TV) platforms. However, nothing drives this home, and allows you to make judgments about “wealth” like seeing terrestrial TV antennas raised from the roofs of “poor” boat homes on Tonle Sap lake near Siem Reap ( http://yfrog.com/h6buyhj ), Cambodia while a home on a barge moving slowly down the Chao Phra Ya river in Bangkok features a True satellite dish ( http://yfrog.com/h0pq3bbj ).
We most likely underestimate the impact on second hand electronics in developing markets. In Bangkok I walked through an electronics marketplace with cheap used remote controls, console TVs, and cable / satellite boxes ( http://yfrog.com/h4e3p3j ). Our Cambodian hotel built around 2007 featured early-2000 era console TVs with about 15-inch screens and gigantic bezels (although it had more than 50 channels from India, Asia and the West).
The streets of Vietnam are littered with “black noodles” ( http://yfrog.com/h3wwwcj ) – gigantic messy bundles of telephone wires resulting from constantly stringing new wires without planning or organization. I’m told there is a 5 year plan to bury telephone wires – presumably with fiber – which is underway but under-funded. The cable infrastructure is apparently underground and not so messy.

I’ll be taking these experiences together with interviews on other parts of Asia (China, India, Japan, Korea) to create a “Technology in Asia” report for our Digital Living Service to be published in Q2.
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Uh Oh, No More New IPv4 Addresses...What's The Impact On The "Internet of Things (IoT)"?

Feb 12, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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On February 4, 2011, the last IPv4 addresses were allocated, according to the Internet Corporation For Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), the organization that oversees addressing for the Internet. There’s been much commentary about the impact this will have on Internet communications in general and the “Internet of Things (IoT)” in particular. The prevailing sentiment in the blogosphere seems to be that we are under-prepared for the transition from IPv4 to IPv6. With some estimates for the total potential number of connected machines and devices ranging up to 50 billion by the end of this decade (e.g. Ericsson’s “50 Billion Things” initiative) the fear is that the IoT could be seriously crippled before it even comes to full fruition.

ABI Research is more sanguine about the continuing addressability of IP-connected devices over both the short- and long-term. The issue is really comprised of two parts: first, the continuing availability of IP-based addresses, and, second, the practical requirement for IP-based addresses for IoT applications.

In the first instance, several “fixes” – such as dynamic IP and network address translation (NAT) – serve now to increase the number of devices addressable by the same IP address. Likewise, IPv6 is already becoming deeply embedded in Wireless Sensor Networking (WSN) standards, by way of IPv6 over Low power Wireless Personal Area Networks (6LoWPAN).
In the second case, the need for IP addressing in many IoT applications is, currently, limited. For example, in an RFID application, only the local RFID reader would be IP-addressable, and would serve as a gateway for data collected from its co-located RFID-tagged items.
The Internet of Things is going to be just fine.
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