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ABI Research Blog (110)

Lower Wii price and PSN troubles…should Sony worry?

May 5, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Yesterday Nintendo announced a lower price for the Nintendo Wii, USD 149.99, and while the package is different (includes Mario Kart and wheel attachment) the price drop could boost sales - respondents to ABI Research surveys have time and again placed price high among the critical elements used when evaluating CE purchases. But the Wii also finds itself in a precarious situation. As the most common platform (installed base) amongst current generation consoles there is less room for growth, but this limitation is not tied to penetration alone. Considering the lack of HD and less robust hardware the console is also lacking the necessary tools to adequately compete with the PS3 and 360 amongst many “hardcore” gamers – gamers who are more likely to purchase updated units and games/peripherals. While the next generation Wii is expected to address these issues (expected after March 2012) Nintendo has to weather the weaker market for what appears to be at least a full year more.
Recently, however, there have been a number of large scale data breaches or interruptions in cloud based services with Sony’s PlayStation Network as one such example – the service has been offline since April 20, 2011, following the “external intrusion” (offline as of May 5). With the potential for over 70+ million PSN user data (and possibly account data from Sony Online Entertainment MMO services) stolen the repercussions could extend further than service downtime alone, particularly if credit card data was lost as well.

Will consumers feel safe storing their personal content online? We can question Sony’s online security but in the recent past other companies like Epsilon have fallen victim to breaches of security and data. Some might wonder what actions Sony will take to better safeguard private data – in other words if Sony is able to “beef up” security then why wasn’t more done initially to protect this data? Sony may have also compounded the problem by taking an inordinate amount of time informing their customers that the potential exists their personal data might have been stolen; for reference Sony shut down PSN and Qriocity services on April 20 th, news broke on the 25 th that personal information was potentially stolen, and some PSN users did not receive emails until the 27 th.
Sony will likely face some backlash, although in the long run the effects will likely prove minimal as many consumers will return once services are reinstated; although some might choose to refrain from giving Sony their credit card information again, which could hurt the platform’s appeal as a central hub for digital content. Nintendo’s lower price could pull in additional customers, but at this juncture in the lifecycle of the current generation of game consoles these sales probably won’t have a significant impact on PS3 demand. In the end, even with a relatively significant number of PSN subscribers threatening to defect for Microsoft’s Xbox Live, with most of the PSN services free to consumers simply turning services back on could very well be the only apology Sony needs to appease these customers – free is almost always compelling.
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Bluetooth SIG AHM 2011

May 5, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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I attended the Bluetooth SIG "All Hands Meeting" in April, held in Budapest. Looked like an interesting city to visit (from my hotel room) but as usual with these trips it was a flying visit and the view from the hotel room is all I got, but I digress….

The event seemed to be very well attended and the recently re-organization and new focus on the SIG gave lots of scope for presentations and a lively debate.
My overall impression was that, although it can sometimes take a little longer than member companies would like to finalize a new specification (and it can be frustrating), it is worth the delay to get it right. Bluetooth Low Energy will bring about an exciting new era for Bluetooth, pushing it into new markets that would otherwise have remained out of reach. Cellular handsets will continue to be the main market and the enabler for others such as wireless sensors.
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How will Sony's mis-adventure affect the future development of the cloud?

May 3, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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It was onlyat the start of Aprilwhen I wrote the following words ​in relation to Amazon's launch of two new cloud-based services:

"In the meantime, as service providers push to open this market and gain competitive advantage by being first to market, it is highly probable that a high profile lapse will occur. Any such instance could easily set the market back a number of years, damaging the trust that is necessary to enable cloud services to take off. Service providers must not neglect cloud security and allow this to happen."

Unfortunately this now seems rather prophetic with myself being one of 105 million potential victims. How will I, and all of the others,react in the future when asked to enter my credit card details into a supposedly reputable web-site? It will surely make us all think twice in the future, particularly if there is any use of member's credit card details.

My focus then was around the need for cloud security, and how thiswill evolve in the future. Without further development and consideration I would expect the uptake of new services to be impacted following some high profile names, including Play.com and TripAdvisor as well as Sony, having fallen victim to hackers.

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China's Huawei and ZTE initiate legal spat over intellectual property

May 2, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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On Thursday, Huawei announced it had filed lawsuits against fellow Chinese company ZTE in three European countries for patent and trademark infringement.

Lawsuits filed in France, Germany, and Hungary claim ZTE has infringed on a series ofHuawei patents relating to data cards (such as USB dongle modems), LTE technologies, and illegal use of a Huawei trademark.ZTE returned the volleyon Friday, suing Huawei with claims of patent infringement relating to LTE air interface protocol technology.

China-based companies suing each other is not a headline one hears everyday. Have the rules of the game changed?

Both Huawei and ZTE have grown respective mobile telecommunications businesses by leaps and bounds in the past few years. The pair have also been under the political microscope as market reach introduced each to becoming global leaders.

Along with the growth come new challenges. Huawei and ZTE are leading the modem data card market and both have seen early success in LTE infrastructure and device deployments. Traditionally fast-followers, the manufacturers are now in the running alongside traditional end-to-end telecom suppliers.

Litigation and IPR protection appear to be tactics that each company will now consider as part of the necessary mix to lead and defend market positions, even if the other party has its roots in China.

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Guess what FT, Telefonica -- The Revolution WILL be Televised

Apr 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Yesterday, France Telecom and Telefonica executives said they will seek to change their peering agreements and will look to charge content providers, particularly those who provide video streaming for passing that traffic over their mobile networks to their consumer customers.
So essentially what these executives are saying is, we are afraid consumers will not pay any more for in terms of the mobile access fees than they are paying today for mobile data services.
This is a complete cop out. They are asking over the top service providers to bear a cost, which they will most likely need to pass on to their consumer customers. These service providers will then be forced to change their business models to fund this cost, depending on whether the consumer accesses those services via mobile network or fixed ones. That is certainly problematic logistically and also in terms of consumer perception.
It is up to the mobile network carrier to monetize their services, which in this case is mobile data access. They provide the mobile network, so don’t sell those services to consumers at a loss. If all you can eat plans are unprofitable, change it. Now is the time for more innovative service offerings from mobile operators – metered billing, QOS triggered services, pricing based on underutilized or overtaxed cell sites, all based on real time billing, policy management and other advanced technologies that mobile operators have at their disposal.

Push these heavyweight service providers at your peril. Solve your own problems.
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US Spectrum Crunch or Hoax?

Apr 28, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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There has been a lot of debate lately around whether the spectrum crunch is real or not. Mobile operators say they need more spectrum. Spectrum is a major reason for AT&T's potential acquisition of T-Mobile USA as well. On the other hand, some say this is nonsense; that some mobile operators and cable companies are sitting on spectrum, and that they do not need more spectrum. What is the truth?

The truth is lies somewhere in between. It's a matter of engineering versus dollars. Mobile operators can use technology and engineering to easily meet their growing capacity needs. They can divide cells as much as they need to by multiplying macrocells and microcells, putting up more picocells and outdoor femtocells, and using more indoor DAS and femtocells.​ No problem . . . until you consider the costs and other issues involved.

This is why spectrum is so desirable. The cost of nationwide spectrum is a fraction - even a tiny fraction of what a mobile operator could spend on additional base stations nationwide, which inlcudes costs for towers, base stations, backhaul to these separate sites, etc. There are problems with getting new sites aside from the costs - the same people who complain about dead spots and calls dropping are sometimes the same people fighting a new cellular base station or tower being put up. When you take this into account, a mobile operator would much rather spend less on acquiring more spectrum than invest more heavily in the network.

In addition, the US is undergoing 4G (WiMAX and LTE) buildouts that are new technologies (OFDMA, hence the next 'generation') that are naturally built out on separate spectrum from that used for existing 2G and 3G technologies. Of course, that spectrum will be refarmed later once the 4G networks are more established.

Because of the financial aspect of subdividing cells, this can only be one of the ways mobile operators will add more capacity. The subdivision of cells will increasingly happen to meet traffic needs, but mobile operators will naturally go for the spectrum option first for the various reasons cited previously. As ABI stated as early as 2007, there will be a capacity crunch cause by the proliferation of WWAN-enabled devices and thier increasing power and capabilities, and mobile operators will use all options at their disposal to meet capacity needs. This includes the use of more spectrum, smaller macro/microcells, the use of small cells, offloading to wireline broadband networks via Wi-Fi and femtocells, changes in pricing including usage-based pricing, compression and video optimization techniques, and more.

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N-Screen Encoding specialist Envivio files IPO paperwork

Apr 26, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Envivio recently filed its S-1 statement for an IPO, revealing fiscal year 2011 profits (ending 1/31/11) of $30M, up from $16M in 2010. In our recent report, Worldwide Pay TV Encoders and Transcoders, we wrote about Envivio:

Envivio is a privately held company headquartered in South San Francisco, with R&D offices just outside Rennes, France. It is funded by a combination of private equity (Atlantic Bridge, Credit Agricole, etc.), venture capital (Crescendor Ventures), and strategic investors (Intel Capital, NTT finance, and Samsung Ventures). Envivio, historically, was strong in serving IPTV markets. About 2 years ago, the company began serving mobile markets and is now seeing a dramatic increase in N-Screen deployments.

Envivio’s 4Caster platform supports live and offline encoding and transcoding to both traditional broadcasters (cable, satellite, and telco) as well as Internet companies. While the company has, in the past, developed encoders using ASICs, FPGAs, and DSPs, its current product line is based on COTS Intel architecture processors. Envivio supports the major (Adobe, Apple, and Microsoft) adaptive streaming formats. Envivio has customer deployments with large European operators including France Telecom and Orange.

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This just in – Elvis is still dead, mass exodus from AT&T doesn’t materialize

Apr 20, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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AT&T released their first quarter results this morning http://www.att.com/gen/landing-pages?pid=6080 and to no one but cranky bloggers (not me) and doomsday rumorists (business talk show commentators) surprise, the company has reported no change in their churn rate year over year, clocking in at 1.36% for the quarter, and actually signed a record number of 1Q net subscriber adds. In addition, the company sold 3.6 million iPhones and revenues up $700 million compared to 1Q 2010.
So where are all of the whiners that have carped incessantly about the AT&T network issues? They must have all left as part of the 1.3 million subscribers who churned off AT&T in Q1. In my opinion, unless you are an AT&T subscriber with first-hand experience or you can point to hard evidence (independent consumer survey, real churn, etc.), you shouldn’t be commenting on a presumed network issue.

What is the bigger story here?
1. Time to consider debunking the AT&T network flaw. Unless AT&T churn steadily increases over the next two quarters, a sufficient enough time for a large percentage of those AT&T subscribers that are the most unhappy to get out of their contracts, the network issue a) must not be big enough to matter to a significant number of subscribers, or b) is basically a lot of hooie.
2. Apple is happy. Congratulations Steve – you have just proven that the market for iPhone won’t cannibalize itself.
3. Verizon is not necessarily unhappy. From all indications, Verizon doesn’t appear to have expected a significant number of AT&T defectors, at least in the short term. While we wait for Verizon to report their earnings officially, the early indicators are that their iPhones were largely sold to existing Verizon subscribers, which will make those subscribers pretty happy.
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Microsoft and Toyota Bringing the Cloud to the Car

Apr 14, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Microsoft and Toyota recently announced a new strategic partnership to build a global next-generation telematics services platform based on the Windows Azure cloud technology with both companies investing 1 billion yen ($12 million) in Toyota Media Service Co., a Toyota subsidiary offering digital information services. The technology will first be implemented in Toyota’s electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2012 followed by the availability of a global cloud platform by 2015 providing affordable and advanced telematics services to customers in the 170 countries where Toyota is present. Applications will include battery charging status tracking, control of charging schedules in order to benefit from the lowest rates, control of heating and air conditioning systems while the vehicle is plugged into the grid, dynamically monitoring range and miles until the next charging station, music streaming, and information services.
This partnership highlights an important shift in the telematics industry with (cloud-based) software technology vendors playing an increasingly important role. Cloud-based solutions offer many benefits in terms of hardware and operating system independence, costs and scalability, and always up-to-date information but also represent challenges in terms of the dependence on the continuous availability of a wireless connection.
Toyota has partnered with a large number of telematics vendors in the past including Denso, Harman, Aisin, and ATX often working with different suppliers in different regions. With globalization being embraced by the automotive industry, it is no surprise Toyota is looking for partners which can support its products on a global level and at acceptable costs. These are exactly the benefits Microsoft is touting of its enterprise-grade, scalable Windows Azure platform. Obviously, this is not a trend traditional telematics vendors will be welcoming.
Cloud-based platforms aren’t entirely new to Toyota, having announced the Entune infotainment solution at CES earlier this year, and which was referred to by Toyota’s Toyoda as likely to benefit from the Microsoft deal in terms of new applications. Having lagged other car OEMs in introducing connected car technology for many years, Toyota is now firmly embracing the global connected car concept as a key differentiator in its fight against its competitors.
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Intel shares road ahead for Atom processor platforms

Apr 13, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Processor stalwart Intel took the wraps off two additional application platforms this week – Oak Trail and Cedar Trail.

The project originally known as Oak Trail is a next-generation Intel Atom processor platform (formally the Intel Atom Processor Z670 and the companion Intel SM35 Express Chipset) intended for media tablet and so-called “hybrid” device designs. The platform is the company’s first official foray into the Tablet PC market, which has been losing mindshare to consumer-driven Media Tablets dominated by competing ARM processor platforms. Intel claims 35 design wins for Oak Trail.
Intel also provided a glimpse into the company’s next-generation netbook platform code-named Cedar Trail. Several of the features found in the higher-end Core i-series processor families, including Wireless Display and improved graphics and power consumption, will be included in the upcoming release. A relatively new capability, called Intel Wireless Music, reuses the Wireless Display functionality to stream audio to specially-designed 3rd party speaker systems without any cables.
Intel Atom architecture currently supports a trio of commercially available operating systems: Microsoft Windows, MeeGo, and Google Android along with the forthcoming Google Chrome OS.
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