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ABI Research Blog (109)

China's (3G) Great Expectations

May 20, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has just made it official. At the end of 2010, China's 3G notched up 5.5% penetration. That may seem pretty puny but when you take the population of China into consideration, that equates to 47 million 3G users. That is a good sized medium European country.... all of them using 3G.

TD-SCDMA is starting to get some traction and is getting noticed. 42% of those 3G subs were TD-SCDMA users. The original MIIT forecasts for TD-SCDMA adoption may have been a little messianic, but there is a sporting chance that China might just eclipse 100 million 3G before the end of 2011.

MIIT will be watching the numbers. It is unlkely that any 4G licenses will be issued until 3G, and in particular TD-SCDMA is seen to be a proper success. If TD-SCDMA were to hit that 100m threshold in short order? Even better. ​

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NFC On A Roll – But Not For Mobile Payments

May 20, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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There sure have been a lot of people getting excited about NFC, with Google, Research In Motion (RIM), Samsung and others stating they would be supporting it.
But most people have misread this as momentum for mobile payments. It is not. The primary NFC use case right now has nothing to do with mobile payments. Interestingly, those seen as the primary players have up to this point said nothing to debunk NFC mobile payments. Until last week.
Last week, Near Field Communications World posted an interesting piece based on a session from Google I/O called “How To NFC” (NFC World article http://bit.ly/lwcSUP Google NFC session http://bit.ly/lOPyGl ) .
The session revealed the most significant NFC mobile payment news of 2011. And nobody realized it.
According to Google NFC team members Nick Pelly and Jeff Hamilton, while the Android Gingerbread release does supply third party APIs to NFC capabilities, it does NOT support NFC APIs for card emulation (mobile payments). Neither will the “Ice Cream Sandwich” release which is slated to launch at the end of 2011. That means no Google third party APIs for mobile payments are likely until sometime in 2013.
While NFC mobile payment APIs for third party developers are not really even the use case for NFC mobile payments, it doesn’t change the fact that Google sees issues with NFC mobile payments right now. Pelly and Hamilton cited a lack of standards for card emulation as the reason Google won’t support an NFC mobile payments API yet. We have heard this before – from Apple, as to why iPhone 5 (now 4S) won’t support NFC. Research In Motion (RIM) has not said specifically they will support NFC mobile payments either.
What has got Google and RIM excited about NFC technology is how it can explode the possibilities for third party app developers, where standards and authentication are not a factor. Google demoed a variety of use cases for P2P sharing of content, including apps, contacts, photos and more. RIM has done so as well, and I have heard similar stories from representatives from France Telecom’s Orange.
There is evidence that NFC protocol interoperability or standardization will have to take place before handset manufacturers will be willing to produce NFC phones that support card emulation in significant numbers. That thought is certainly supported by the merchants, who will either require a standardized solution for POS or a vendor who can normalize different NFC technologies at POS. Result – no significant uptake of NFC mobile payments until maybe 2013.
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LTE Lessons to be Learnt from the Russians

May 19, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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4G services are just around the corner. A number of operators are doing trials. Some are moving towards commercial launches. “Many” are thinking how do we make LTE profitable?

There is perhaps a thing or two to be learnt from the Russians. Russia’s Big 4, (Beeline, Megafon, MTS, and Rostelkom) have signed a deal with Yota whereby the latter will wholesale its LTE network to these operators, enabling their 4G services. The major network operators will be MVNOs of Yota with an option to become part owners of Yota’s 4G network; as a part-owner of Yota they would be entitled to a reduced wholesale rate.
The consortium has until July 1 to prepare proposals for the Russian government for the use of frequencies currently used by the military.

It is quite a practical solution:
stronger bargaining power when they are dealing with the network equipment providers;
lower capital expenditures required to set up and maintain existing networks;

avoid costly duplication of infrastructure. Why have two base-stations in the same location?
For more information read our insight at:

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Get Ready: VZW Expected to Shift From Unlimited to Multi-Device Data Sharing Plans

May 19, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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As we've been expecting,Verizon Wirelesswillbegin phasing out'unlimited' mobile data plans this summer,paving the way for the eventual shiftto multi-device data sharing plans, according toa top executive quoted in aReuters story.

The idea: instead of payinga flat fee per device for mobile data (roughly $30 per month), you would pay for a bundle of datathat couldbe used across several devices, and within a family plan. Those devices could includesmartphones and tablets.

The move makes sense, and could help lessen the blowas tiered-data pricing becomes the norm.For many usersthis will probably turn out OK, andcouldevenbring a lower monthly bill if the new data bundle turns out to cost less than the combined cost of several per-deviceplans. Verizon must price these right, or there will be a backlash.

However,I expect a rough patch when multi-device plans enter the market, as users who have grown accustom to 'unlimited' data try to figure out what their data limits really are.Discussions around the family table couldget interesting ("Johnny, you're hogging all the data with that newiPad 2.")

Nonetheless,new pricing schemes areto be expected as operatorstry to figure out how to monetizeamidst an explosion ofmobile data demand.

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Asia-Pacific Smartphone Dragon Awakes

May 12, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The Asia-Pacific smartphone market is really starting to fire on all cylinders.

Despite notching up US$ 26 billion in sales in 2010, the Asia-Pacific smartphone market still lagged behind Europe and North America. However by 2012, Asia-Pac is expected to eclipse them both. Asia smartphone shipments in 2011 could well deliver 35% growth, perhaps higher. While iPhone, Android and BlackBerry are on strong growth trajectories, there are question-marks as to whether Nokia-Microsoft can ramp up Window Mobile 7 smartphone sales to compensate for the possible decline in Nokia’s Symbian smartphones shipments.
Asia has long been a bastion of support for Nokia sales support but Apple’s, Samsung’s, RIM’s, HTC’s, smartphones have been undermining purchasing interest in Nokia’s smartphone from Asia’s customers. Nokia will have to take pro-active steps to maintain its momentum in the Asia market. Asia, Europe and Emerging Market sales have always helped to compensate for Nokia's weaker presence in North America.
(Based, in part, on commentary from a Channel News Asia Interview, 12-May-2011)

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InMobi Partners with Amobee, Gains Access to Leading Brands

May 11, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Mobile ad network InMobi has just closed a three-year, multi-million deal with mobile ad solution provider Amobee that will enhance InMobi's standing among top brands. Amobee counts a sizeablenumber ofFortune 500 brands among its clients.

Few other details were disclosed, but this move shows how the mobile ad business is coalescing around companies with global reach(InMobi reaches 200 million people in 125 countries) and proven solutions (Amobee).

InMobi may not be well known in the U.S. or European markets, since it got its start in Asia (originalheadquarters werein Bangalore, India, and it was previously known as mKhoj). However, the company has moved aggressively in the past year to establish itself in the U.S. market, and with this new partnership it hasraised its visibility amongadvertiserswithlarger budgets, whichshould help it continue its growth curve.

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Arris Digeo Acquisition Bears Fruit

May 11, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Arris recently announced that it had started shipping its Arris Whole Home Gateway solution to Shaw in Canada (starting in Calgary). This solution includes a Gateway with Six HD tuners, a DOCSIS 3.0 modem, Ethernet Port, 500 GB Hard Drive, MoCA 1.1+ networking and DLNA. It uses Digeo’s Moxi interface which Arris acquired in September 2009 for about $20 million. The solution includes two boxes – the Whole Home DVR (branded as Shaw’s Gateway) for the first screen and Moxi Mate (branded as Shaw’s Total Home Portal) for each additional screen. While Arris provides an 802.11n WiFi option, Shaw did not include this.

Prior to the Digeo acquisition, Arris provided many infrastructure products, such as Cable Modem Termination Systems (CMTS) and Encoders (from the EGT acquisition) which were competitive with those provided by Cisco and Motorola. Arris also excelled at data-oriented customer premise equipment (CPE), including Cable Modems and E-MTA’s (Embedded Multimedia Terminal Adaptors) used to connect phones to a cable system. However, Arris lacked some credibility because they could not offer an end-to-end video solution because of a lack of an internal set-top box (STB) solution.

It is always good to see a strong company like Arris deliver on an acquisition with a strong design win like this one with Shaw, with 2.3 million cable customers (including 1.7 million digital customers and 1.8 million broadband customers).

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First thoughts on Microsoft's Skype call

May 10, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​It’s official now: Microsoft buys Skype for $8.5 billion in cash. That’s a lot of money for a firm whose business has yet to become profitable, especially if compared to the $2.8 billion that the selling side – Silver Lake et al – paid eBay for it in 2009. Here are some varyingly loose thoughts to start with:

  • Product-wise, this could be a nice fit. Microsoft has severalareas in both consumer and enterprise sectors that will benefit from a top-notch VoIP,video and sharing solution. All of the synergies may never realize, but even the promise of them goes a long way explaining why the price may not seem that right.
  • Whatever happens, Skype is still multiple times a better fit for Microsoft than it was for eBay, whose own purchase in 2005 was based on the assumption that it would boost its auction business. Who wouldn’t enjoy calling to strangers, eh?
  • A preinstalled, well integrated Skype client could be a potent differentiator for Windows Phone devices vs. Androids, iPhone and BlackBerry. Thus far there aren’t many, at least in the positive sense of the word.
  • As a third-party app, Skype has worked well on Windows Phone’s rivals. So one interesting issue will be to see whether Microsoft will make it exclusive for WP handsets. That would probably unnecessarily hinder Skype’s push into the mobile domain, and erode its brand and user base, so a likelier option will be that Nokia and other manufacturers using WP will insteadgain some premium features. Video calling mightwell be one.
  • Telcos won’t be happy to seeanother over-the-top front opening, but they have surely seen it coming. Just witness Telefonica’s (Jajah) and Deutsche Telekom’s (Bobsled) moves in this space – they’re trying hard to make VoIP working for them rather than only against them. But having said that, if they wished that the Nokisoft tie-up would result in a leading yet still operator-friendlier ecosystem they will be disappointed.

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Nvidia to Acquire Icera

May 9, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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It was announced today that Nvidia are to acquire baseband supplier Icera.


At $367 million in cash it isn't as large a purchase as some other recent semiconductor company acquisitions e.g. Qualcomm/Atheros, TI/National but it does have the promise to be a very interesting deal.


With the acquisition it pushes Nvidia into the relatively small group of companies able to supply integrated platform solutions for the smartphone market. It can join the likes of Qualcomm, ST-Ericsson and Intel, amongst others.


Although it probably won't have Qualcomm quaking in its boots quite yet, it will certainly be on their radar, especially as Nvidia has seen significant traction for its Tegra 2 processors in smartphones over the last 12 months.


More details to follow .........

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Warner Bros.’ acquisition of Flixster and Rotten Tomatoes is further evidence media is moving to digital services, but is there trouble in the cloud or are recent events just isolated lightning strike

May 5, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Warner Bros. recently announced the acquisition of Flixster/Rotten Tomatoes in an effort to further expand the company’s presence in the digital space. If you recall, Flixster acquired Rotten Tomatoes in early 2010 from IGN Entertainment (property of News Corporation). This acquisition, coupled with the trials of Facebook and iOS sales further suggests Warner Bros is seeking to forge more direct relationships with consumers. All of these new elements in the content landscape, be it “TV Everywhere” initiatives, HbbTV, Ultraviolet, or content to connected CE devices rely on remote access to some extent. ABI Research explored this developing market further in an over the top report.

Recently, however, there have been a number of large scale data breaches or interruptions in cloud based services. Amazon Web Services had an outage (leaving some B2B customers without service), Yahoo! Mail and Flickr was down to some users, and Sony’s PlayStation Network has been offline since April 20, 2011, following the “external intrusion” (offline as of May 4).

In Sony’s case the potential repercussions could extend further as personal data from the 70+ million PSN users (and possibly account data from Sony Online Entertainment MMO services) was potentially stolen. In addition, while Sony has not confirmed nor officially denied the loss of credit card information there has been reports of hackers trying to sell this data online and some potential victims of identity theft/credit card fraud have surfaced as well (possibly linked to this PSN intrusion).
While these incidents do not necessarily reflect poorly on the efficacy of cloud based services it does perhaps call into question its ultimate scope or reach. Something other ABI Analysts are pondering as well, as evidenced by John Devlin’s recent post “ How will Sony’s mis-adventure affect the future development of the cloud?
The shift however is perhaps already evident with media, where more consumers and services are migrating from physical copies to digital, which engenders a greater reliance on the cloud. Supporting this trend is the expansion of mobile broadband, hotspots, and fixed broadband services, but is this enough to overlook potential hurdles/drawbacks?
It is true that many consumers already rely on email or social networking services over more traditional forms of communication, but as we move more of our daily activities online the importance of the connection to the Internet (and availability of services) likewise grows in kind. Take movies/TV for instance. Many consumers are quick to complain if the cable or satellite feed is interrupted or lost, would this standard not hold true for cord cutters who rely on online content as well? This is not limited to the on/off metric alone, but also the quality of service. Physical media may be cumbersome (e.g. storing discs), but in most cases it can still be enjoyed without relying on an external service or broadband connection.
It is, however, hard to imagine consumers making a significant shift away from broadband services/content, even with the threat of stolen data. In fact many consumers hold a rather low valuation for their personal information; no this does not mean consumers would care little if their personal information were to be stolen, but if we consider how much information about our private lives is made public (or given to third parties) the breach at Sony starts to feel less severe.
Take for instance “loyalty cards.” Many consumers are perfectly willing to give these retailers copious amounts of data about their shopping habits (or gambling, as the case may be) for rather basic rewards, be it discounts (or cash back) or contests. How about home addresses? Some social networkers have no problem posting personal information online and lest we forget about sites like Spokeo.com, where addresses for many individuals are readily available. Yes credit card information is different (and so is large collections of personal data), but much of our lives are no longer private and certainly not immune from identity theft.
In the end change will continue and whether the infrastructure and cloud is ready, more consumers and services will undoubtedly come to rely on it. As for security and personal information, the breach at Sony and Epsilon will certainly not be the last, but if companies learn from these cases then the end might justify these bumps in the road, as it were. And perhaps consumers will start to think more consciously about the choices they make with their identity and the value assigned to their data.
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