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ABI Research Blog (104)

3G Blooming in China

Aug 24, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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At the end of second quarter of 2011, we continue to see another promising result from the mobile telecommunications sector in China: the total number of 2G and 3G subscriptions surpassed 906 million (920 million if including PHS). This figure alone is larger than any other regional market as a whole, and helped to push the Asia-Pacific market to a total of close to 3 billion mobile subscriptions to-date. Despite this amazing feat, the real value behind this massive figure actually lies on the market potential of the mobile users. Especially with India recently reported 30% of its subscribers are inactive; we need to know the actual market value of these 906 million subscribers.

We forecasts the size of the China market to hit 1 billion within a year time, this figure includes the diminishing numbers of PHS. However, we expect more than half of China’s mobile subscriptions are prepaid, and this group of users are able to hold on to their SIM card from 90-180 days and even up to 360 days depending on the value of top-up, which could probably mean a handful of inactive users. The main strategy now operators should consider targeting the acquisition of 3G customers actively, rather than pursuing the overall customers gain and market share.

After more than 2 years of launch, China’s overall 3G subscribers are still less than nine percent of the entire 906 million. Some may wonder if the government’s decision to go ahead with three different standards of 3G technology is one of the factor, after all every upgrade of mobile line service requires a different handset. However, a mobile plan with monthly ARPU which is triple that of 2G may well be deemed as luxury item to the general pool of the average salary drawing employee with lower purchasing power.

The Chinese mobile operators should probably do more to target the growing pool of youths who have strong interests in smartphones and connectivity on the go, especially coupled with the low PC penetration in the region. After all, it’s the 78% increase in 3G mobile data usage that helps to lifts China Telecom’s mobile revenue by 50%.

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Groupon's Business Model Is Dangerously Immature

Aug 17, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​Did anyone notice that Groupon took a big step towards more traditional financial reporting last week? Myself I didn’t until today, when LinkedIn’s news digest pointed me to this worthy blog post on Harvard Business Review. In essence, Groupon’s change of metrics means that now it’s easier for every potential investor to see that the IPO-prepping company is still far from becoming profitable.

I personally belong to the camp which argues that Groupon’s business model has attracted far more hype than it would genuinely deserve. Granted, the firm has expanded phenomenally fast, but at the same time it has managed to add awfully little depth to its business model in the past year. And I mean sort of depth that would make it a better deal for its real clients (participating merchants) than it is now. Consider the following:

About 90% of Groupon’s daily emails border on outright spam. They tend to be hugely irrelevant in terms of what they offer and where they offer it. And as long as my experience here in London indicates anything there seem to be nowadays more rather than less of them: I used to receive two (bearable), but since maybe July I’ve received three (a nuisance). By now Groupon should have really learnt a trick or two from my click-through and purchase record, and stop spamming me.

This sort of shotgun approach means that Groupon most likely remains a raw deal for most of the merchants. Groupon is just another form of marketing, and its lack of deal personalization makes it a very badly targeted one. Better specified, more relevant mailing lists would for example allow Groupon to provide merchants with more suitable timeslots and audiences that are likelier to come back after the discount. The shotgun mailing lists must havelong waiting times, so I’d imagine that merchants don’t have any say in when their deals go out. And because targeted audiences are too diverse the whole act resembles a suckers’ rally to the biggest discount.

The main reason why Groupon hasn’t focused more on making itself better instead of simply bigger is probably that suchwould have required money and attention, and thus slowed down the company’s expansion. And a slower expansion would have meant that regional replicas (like CityDeals Groupon acquired in 2010) would have got bigger, possibly better, and certainly more expensive for Groupon to buy out – running advertising mailing lists isn’t that difficult a model to emulate, after all.

The daily-deal businesses do have a future - in offers that are mobile, highly targeted, and oftenreal-time - but until we start seeing signs of it I'd very much avoid investing any money in them.

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Google, Motorola and the Impact for Google Wallet

Aug 16, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Interesting news from Google on the acquisition of Motorola Mobility. How will the news impact Google Wallet?

Don’t assume it will mean a massive number of Google/Motorola phones shipped ready for Google Wallet. Instead, in the short term, it accelerates the race between different mobile payment business models and will force both MNOs and Google into some interesting decisions over 2012-13.

In my mind, there are two emerging models for NFC mobile payments –
1) the MNO JV model, epitomized by the UK MNO JV, ISIS, the French MNO JV, etc., in which the MNO controls the secure element, allowing access by payment players, merchants and others to use the hardware on the phone to enable payments; and

2) the Google/Apple Wallet, in which Google or Apple control the secure element (though in my conversations with Google they will not confirm to me that they do so). In the Google/Apple Wallet model, the MNO is certainly a partner, but not the lead partner.

In most markets, MNOs order or specify most of the handsets sold (even when they aren’t sold through direct MNO channels). There are very few NFC mobile payment enabled handsets on the market today because MNOs haven’t quite gotten their arms around their business case for mobile payments, so they aren’t ordering phones.

I’m going to assume that most if not all of Google/Moto’s mobile handset products will eventually become Google phones, which means Google can pre-load applications (including Google Wallet) on the device and continue to set the standard for their vision of the pure Android OS.
But they can only do this carte blanc with unlocked phones. Any phones they want to sell through or for MNOs, they will have to negotiate what applications and hardware go on, and what stays off.
Which brings us back to my point about Google Wallet. Will many MNOs want to play the Google Wallet option? Can the Google Wallet option exist within the MNO JV model? This was already a question before Google/Moto, and I think the answer is yes, given the MNO alignment in most of the world behind Single Wire Protocol on SIM. Google would be shut out if it wasn’t ready to negotiate with MNOs. However, I don’t think the Google/MOTO phones will impact the announced JVs efforts in 2012, simply because the Google/Moto deal doesn’t finalize until year end 2011-early 2012.
For JVs who are struggling to form their business case, Google Wallet cooperation with Google/Moto devices as the lead might become an interesting proposal – if MNOs are willing to cede some control to Google, who must also make it worth the MNO’s time. I think Google/Moto will initially concentrate Google Wallet pushes to individual MNOs in key markets where MNO JVs don’t exist yet, such as Brazil, Germany, Italy and others, prove the concept, and then come back to the MNO JVs if Google Wallet proves successful.
The bottom line is that by the end of 2012, Google will be launching mobile handsets with Google Wallet pre-loaded in markets where they can compromise with MNOs.

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RIM and Sprint Cancel WiMAX PlayBook Launch

Aug 15, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Considered to be the first media tablet paired with a 4G mobile broadband network earlier this year, news comes today that RIM and mobile carrier Sprint have agreed to drop plans for a BlackBerry PlayBook tablet incorporating WiMAX.

The balance of 3G/4G-enabled PlayBook launches expected during the second half of 2011 -- including HSPA andHSPA+ 3G models -- are still considered to be "on track" for carrier introductions. RIM says it is focused on bringing an LTE model to market as well.

WiMAX hasn't fared well in the slate form-factor to date. Remember the Nokia N810 WiMAX Edition or Samsung's Mondi? The sole media tablet left standing with WiMAX is the HTC View 4G, also on the Sprint network in the US.

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Why Google Bought Motorola Mobility and What It Means

Aug 15, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Google has just announced that (subject to usual regulatory approvals)it will acquire Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billions in cash. Here's my first take on the news:
  • ​Intellectual property. As has been widely reported, Google’s IP assets are currently pretty weak. Continuing to develop Android without shoring up the patent portfolio might well have meant that the “Android tax” on every device using the operating system would have got dangerously steep. With Motorola’s IP clout on its side Google can actually fight back rather than just paying out more and more, time after time. Just check out what Motorola Mobility’s CEO commented last week. A coincidence?
  • Hardware/software integration. I don’t personally think that the lack of in-house hardware has so far been a huge drag on Android, but now Google will naturally have full control over the HW/SW integration. Add to those two dimensions the social one (Google+) and Google an edge. Apple lacks its own social network; Facebook lacks its own OS and handsets. Google does the whole triangle. That will go down well with social app developers, and it’s apps that will make or break Google+.
  • Microsoft. The Windows Phone vendor is the odd one out now, as it doesn’t do hardware – yet. I’d assume that Google’s takeover of Motorola Mobility will heat up the M&A rumors around MS and Nokia/RIM.
  • ​Mobile operators vs. OTT. In-house hardware will add to Google’s over-the-top capabilities in voice and messaging – consider this yet another blow to the operator industry. The day when the world’s first Soft SIM hits the market is drawing closer.

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What Does New Investment Mean For Oberthur?

Aug 12, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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It was announced aweek ago​ that Advent International, a private equity group, had entered into exclusive negotiations with Oberthur Group. The negotiations are focused on Advent investing to take a majority stake in Oberthur Card Systems - the part of Oberthur's business which focuses on smart cards for mobile/SIM, payment and banking, transportation, digital TV and contactless applications.

With a suggested investment of €1.15 billion, it is a question of what the strategy of Oberthur Card Systems businessnew owners will be. It is currently the second biggest manufacturer of smart cards, some way behind market leader Gemalto and slightly ahead of third placed Giesecke & Devrient. As a result, there are unlikely to be wholesale changes. And by splitting this part of the business from its traditional banknote printing business(which now has funds for acquisitions - De La Rue in the UK being a previous target) it presents two main options for the smart card unit.

Given the initial outlay, it is unlikely that there will be further significant acquisitions (at least in the short term). Perhaps the most likely route will be to develop more emphasis on software and services, something that Gemalto has successfully started to do over the past few years. This will give Oberthur the opportunity to build on its core expertise and to grow beyond the relatively commoditised pure smart card play, where price pressure has impacted significant volume growth over the past few years. Some of the building blocks are already there: Oberthur has a TSM capability for the nascent NFC/mobile market and it has good services and innovation in the payment card personalisation space. However, Oberthur has not always beenas proactive as it might inpromotingits capabilities in this respect. These are there to be built on and it will be interesting to watch if, how and when this push starts to grow the unit as a standalone business.

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The new owners of Hypercom USA, UK and Spain...

Aug 10, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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It's taken approximatelyeight months, but Verifone has concluded its acquisition of rival POS terminal manufacturer, Hypercom, after finallysatisfying the antitrust concerns of the US Department of Justice. Whilst much has been made of the divestiture ofHypercom'sUS arm to anas-yet unknowncompany sponsored by the private equityfirm Gores Group, there has been comparativelylittle commentary on the new owners of the UK and Spanish divisions -Spire Payments.

Sojustwhoisthisnew kidon the block?

Essentially,Spire Payments is the new name for Hypercom UK and Hypercom Spain, and is backed by the private equity firm Klein Partners Capital Group. According to the company's website, the new entity "leads a business with an estimated base of 650,000 payment terminals" and "has the exclusive sale rights to Hypercom's range of Optimum and Artema Modular products in the UK and Spain".Kazem Aminae, the former President of HypercomEMEAhas been appointed President ofthe new company.

Although the US market is no moreconcentrated than it was before as a result of these agreements (with three players stillaccounting for the vastmajority of POS terminal shipments in the country), the same can't now be said of the European market. In fact, the so-called "bigthree" has effectivelybecome the "big two" and so it remains to be seen whetherSpire Payments will, in time, expand its offering in other regional markets to try and erodethe now enhanced collective dominance of Ingenico and Verifone.

ABI Research's recently published report on the integration of cellular connectivity in the payments industry provides a more thoroughoverview of the POS terminal market and its competitive landscape. For more details, please click here.

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Rovi sues Hulu...

Aug 9, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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No sooner had I written about the importance of intellectual property in interactive TV services than I realized that I missed Rovi having sued Hulu relating to Electronic Program Guide (EPG) patents:

http://www.fierceiptv.com/story/rovi-hulu-infringed-program-guide-patent/2011-08-01

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An Arbitrage Opportunity in the M2M Connectivity Services Market?

Aug 8, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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An ABI Research colleague recently asked about arbitrage opportunities in the provisioning of cellular M2M connectivity services. He asked whether MVNOs in the M2M market could simply buy data from MNOs at an equivalent rate to what the mobile operators charge smartphone users, and mark that up for sale to M2M customers at a rate less than what MNOs would charge for M2M data. This becomes a very valid question because, as has increasingly been mentioned by analysts and the media, M2M data connectivity services can actually be a fairly high margin business. This is counter-intuitive and paradoxical, given the very low ARPU (average revenue per user) typical for most M2M applications, relative to traditional smartphone and notebook PC cellular connectivity.

So, is there an arbitrage opportunity to be had, and if so, why aren’t MVNOs taking advantage of it?
The short answer is: yes – there would be an arbitrage opportunity, if the MNOs weren’t pressing into the M2M market directly themselves.
Unfortunately for the MVNOs, the MNOs are invested heavily in developing their M2M market operations. It took many of the MNOs a number of years to realize the full extent of the opportunity in M2M – in terms of both scale and margin. Part of this was figuring out how best to organize and deploy resources to offer M2M connectivity services efficiently, and cost-effectively, and in a manner that optimally matched the needs of the market. Now, however, MNOs are fully committed to M2M, many having formed M2M business units, deployed M2M-specific platforms and core network infrastructure, and some have even established M2M development centers and formed partnerships with cellular embedded module vendors to reduce the costs of modules.
Consequently, the MVNOs face a competitor – who is also their supplier – who will always be able to undercut them on price. This point was driven home to us recently in a discussion with two different CSPs – one an MNO, and another an MVNO. The MNO quoted a price for smart meter connectivity at around $0.40 per meter per month, for a smart meter connected directly to the cellular network. In contrast, the MVNO quoted a price roughly 150% higher, and about $1.00 per meter per month.
Consequently, both MNOs and MVNOs have figured out that charging a premium for M2M connectivity – along with cost reduction measures – can make M2M a very attractive business proposition. In practical terms, however, this is not an arbitrage opportunity for the MVNOs, because not only do both MNOs and MVNOs want to avoid a cost war, it is a war the MVNOs would lose.
For more research on the cellular M2M market, please see ABI Research’s M2M Research Service .

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Should We Say Farewell to the “Early Adopter?”

Aug 8, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​In the tech industry the “early adopters” have usually been viewed as bleeding edge technophiles, who just happen to have the discretionary income and/or drive/passion to purchase products at or near launch. In addition to those enamored by the technology there are others who enjoy having (and being seen with) the greatest and newest gadget (often from Apple). But recent events might give some of these “early adopters” pause when purchasing that new-fangled (or “next gen”) device – in fact one could argue consumers are being conditioned to avoid new product launches all together.

While early adopters have always accepted declining prices as an inevitability and the potential for technologies/devices/services they purchase to one day become nonexistent (e.g. DivX from Circuit City – both of which are effectively defunct), the recent actions by several companies could change this dynamic. In other words the value early adopters glean from being among the first to buy a product might soon “fade away.” So what are these events/actions?

The most recent is the HP TouchPad. I will admit I am one of the relative few who purchased a Palm Pre (from Sprint, not long after the phone’s launch) and who happens to still have the device - I’m telling you this because it plays an important role in this discussion. As a “loyal” WebOS consumer I was offered a $50 discount on the 32GB HP TouchPad just prior to the official launch (July 1, 2011). Step forward just over one month and much to the chagrin of early adopters HP offered a $100 discount on both TouchPad models (originally priced at $500 16GB and $600 32GB) over the past weekend and made the price $449.99 for the 16GB and $549.99 for the 32GB – note that Amazon.com still lists the TouchPads for 100 less than the original launch prices. So HP offered a mea culpa to their most ardent supporters and offered these consumers a $50 credit to the application marketplace – as a Palm Pre owner I’m willing to assume the $50 credit is not as valuable as some (those who have not had to deal with WebOS application inadequacies) might presume. WebOS/HP/Palm is but one example.

Nintendo also reduced the price of their 3DS handheld game player in less than 6 months ($80 off the original $250) – not surprisingly this drew the ire of the early adopters as well, to which Nintendo offered an apology and 20 free downloadable games (10 NES and 10 Gameboy Advance games – yes these are old games). Oh, and labeled these Nintendo loyalists “Ambassadors.” Aside from bestowing a title on these early adopters HP followed a very similar tactic – maybe they were taking notes.

Another product that succumbed to the price cutting ax is Logitech’s Revue Internet set-top box. While it has been on the market longer than the previously mentioned devices the price drop was quite substantial ($150 drop from $250) – in addition Google TV had difficulties securing content deals. While this brings the Revue (Google STB) on price parity with the Apple TV STB (and others like Roku) it too might give some early adopters pause in the future when a new product arrives.

With all of these price cuts early adopters might start to think twice before pulling the trigger on their purchases. While price is almost universally important consumers have become particularly price sensitive – likely in response to the economic environment. Add in the rapid price drops, potential problems with services (e.g. Google TV not securing content deals) and the widespread availability of information about new products and the term “early adopter” could come to mean careless, lacking insight, and possibly overly extravagant instead of tech savvy – for most the antithesis of what it means to be an early adopter (for some the last one might be intended).

Apple has largely remained unscathed in this process; in fact the company likely draws in the largest number of early adopters. But if Apple releases a new iPad this year (even a “pro” line), might the company risk perpetuating these potential issues with being an early adopter? Time will tell. In the end this might not be so much a matter of the death of early adopters but rather the need for companies to better assess pricing models and consumer demand/expectations. And if all else fails maybe giving early adopters cool names like “Ambassadors” will help ease the pain when others ask why you purchased the product at launch.

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