Author: Mark Lydon, Senior Content Marketing Manager
ABI Research’s Digital Security team recently published its Government and Healthcare ID Cards market data. The forecast includes 132 datasets, providing a deep, data-driven analysis of where digital ID technology vendors need to allocate product development and marketing resources. The study breaks down the market opportunity by application and interface across dozens of notable countries and regions.
I caught up with Research Director Phil Sealy to ask him four key questions about the citizen digital identity market based on these latest findings.
Q: What is the market outlook for smart cards within the government ID space?
A: ABI Research forecasts smart government ID card shipments to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.5% between 2026 and 2030, increasing from 676 million credentials to 717 million credentials. National IDs account for 52% of total shipments in 2026, and 53% by 2030. Passports are the second-largest segment, maintaining a 24% to 27% shipment share throughout ABI Research’s market forecast. Driver’s licenses and healthcare cards make up roughly 18% of global smart government card shipments.
Q: What do semiconductors targeting government IDs need to know about the smart card market?
A: Well, semiconductor providers like NXP, Infineon, and STMicroelectronics dominate in this area. They provide specialized chipsets (Microcontroller Units (MCUs)) that store, manage, and secure sensitive citizen data. These companies are expected to see more than 3 billion MCUs sold over the next 4 years. Annual demand will grow 1.2% annually throughout our forecast window, peaking at 797 million in 2029. In 2030, an overall market reduction is expected as the weakened passport activity during the COVID-19 period is repeated 10 years later.
Q: How is the market broken down by smart card interface?
A: Pure contactless remains the predominant interface for government ID cards leveraging smart credentials, forecast to ship 1.9 billion total units through 2030. This is the most convenient and secure way to verify a citizen's ID. Meanwhile, contact-only interfaces are expected to see 1.3 billion units shipped. Vendors should also recognize that dual-interface cards are set for the most rapid growth rate (3.7% CAGR), as demand for versatile digital ID solutions proliferates worldwide.
Q: Which populations have the highest smart government ID card penetration rates?
A: Europe leads the way here by a comfortable margin, with a 57% penetration rate in 2026 and a 61% penetration rate by 2030. This is driven by significant market maturity in the region with over 49% of the European population having a smart national ID card and 40% an e-Passport. Europe is also the home base for many of the global digital ID technology vendors, such as Thales, IDEMIA, and Veridos, as well as several semiconductor leaders. Asia closely trails, with smart credentials being supported in 46% of total government IDs today and 49% by 2030. The rest of the world lags behind, each region sustaining a roughly 30% to 35% penetration rate through our forecast.
How ABI Research Defines a Smart Government ID Card
ABI Research defines a smart card as a digital credential that has a form of Integrated Circuit (IC) in the document. Within the government and healthcare citizen ID market, smart card credentials are split into memory and microcontroller, and into three chip types:
- Contact
- Pure contactless
- Dual interface
Inclusion of ICs in government citizen ID documentation is not a new phenomenon and has been active in the marketplace for over a decade. Governments can take advantage of the technology, allowing a higher level of security and information storage space. Chips can carry more than one application, providing opportunities for governments to streamline costs by consolidating and merging applications within a single credential.
Market forecasts for government smart cards are split in the same way as legacy, but will have an extra split breaking the figures down into one of the three dedicated IC types. Our government citizen ID forecast will provide a better understanding of trends in the installed base and shipments of each chip.
Get the full market forecast: Download ABI Research’s Government and Healthcare ID Cards market data to identify the highest growth opportunities for citizen digital identity technology providers.
Explore more of ABI Research's coverage across the smart card market:
- Government and Healthcare ID IC Technologies
- Quantum Readiness in the Government Documentation and National ID Card Market
- Turbulence for U.K. Digital ID as It Faces the Usual Dilemma: Voluntary, "Voluntary," or Mandatory?
Phil Sealy