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ABI Research Blog (92)

Putting a 4.8-inch Screen Size Into Perspective

May 4, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​There are a lot of blogs and articles making a big deal about the screen sizes of new phones. There is a continuous trend of screen sizes getting bigger because generally it is a case of bigger is better. The only problem is with how the phone fits into smaller hands. But is 4.8" all that much larger? Many people are wrongly comparing it to 4.3" screens. 4.3" screens are mostly aligned with Android 2.3 and silk-screened buttons. Phones designed for Android 4.0 have screens that extend into where the silk-screened buttons used to be. This was first seen with the Galaxy Nexus (4.65") which is not all that different in size from an older device with a 4.3" screen.

So a 4.8" screen should really be compared to a 4.65" screen (which maintained the same general size as the older 4.3" screens + silk screened area). The 4.8" screen is just a little bit larger than the 4.65" screen. It's not drastic.

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E.ON and British Gas Boost UK Smart Meter Numbers

May 1, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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At present, Europe leads the world in terms of the number of smart meters deployed (ABI Research estimates that almost 46 million units had been deployed across the region by the end of 2011). However, the vast potential of the market is still nowhere near close to being fully exploited. In fact, if you take Italy and the Scandinavian countries out of the equation, the combined installed base of the remainder of the continent is only around 5 million units. That said, activity is beginning to ramp up in some of the major markets such as Spain and the UK.Let's take a quick look at how UK-based utilities are shaping up to meet the government’s ambitious plans to have all business and residential electricity and gas meters converted to smart meters by 2020.

At last week’s M2M World Congress in London,itemerged that British Gas has so far installed around 400,000 smart meters across the UK.Around half of these were located at its small and medium-sized enterprise sites, with the other half located in customer's homes. By the end of 2012,the companyaims tohaveincreasedthe total number of smart meters deployed to around 2 million.Deployment partners include: Vodafone, which is providing GPRS connectivity to metersthat log readings on a half-hourly basis and transmit information back to the utility every 24 hours;Trilliant, which has developed the communications hub and management software for the solution; as well as Landis+Gyr and Elster – both of whom have been selected as preferred providers of smart meters.

E.ON UKis another utility that ismoving past the pilot phase and starting to deploy smart meters in larger numbers. The company recently announced that it will roll out up to 100,000 units in 2012, followed by a further 200,000 in 2013 on top of the 100,000 it already has in the field. By 2014, it plans to have installed 1 million smart meters nationwide. Like British Gas,E.ON has chosen Elster asthe provider of its smart meters.

The other utilities comprising the UK’s so-called “big six energy companies” – EDF Energy, Scottish Power, RWE Npower and Scottish and Southern Energy are all believed to be testing a variety of different solutions in anticipation of a fully-mandated rollout. This is expected to start in 2014 when the Smart Meter Regulation Group (SMRG) is fully in place.
All in all, we estimate that there are around 750,000 smart meters installed and in operation across the UK and Northern Ireland at present. However, the UK government wants to see some 47 million smart electricity and gas meters (or 53 million depending on which source you read) deployed by 2020 thus illustrating that there is still a massive amount of work to do in order for the country to meet its objectives. Nevertheless, this long and arduous task is underway in earnest and in the next few years, the UK will account for a much greater chunk of the European installed base than it currently does.

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Google, PayPal Not Aggressors To Project Oscar

May 1, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Late Sunday The Financial Times ran a story headlined “Google Warns Over Mobile Payments” http://on.ft.com/JaMG1D . The lead paragraph reads “Google and PayPal have sounded the alarm in Brussels over a proposed joint venture between Britain’s biggest mobile phone operators, warning it could choke the fast-developing mobile payments market.” The media will be sure to make a big stink over this apparent aggression.

While I have no doubts that Google or PayPal would say these things about the joint venture in the U.K., it is important to note that at least Google did not offer any comment unsolicited. This is a very important point – Google was asked by the EC to comment, according to the report. In a paragraph halfway through the article, it states that Google “submitted comments after receiving a non-binding Commission request.The report did not say whether PayPal’s comments were solicited, but I bet you they were.
It’s not in Google, PayPal or any other mobile wallet player’s best interest to attack a carrier JV. For a long list of reasons I won’t bore you with here, I believe that mobile wallets will never become a mass market accepted consumer choice unless mobile operator JVs like Project Oscar are allowed to move forward. Put another way, neither Google nor PayPal will succeed without mobile carrier-branded mobile wallets in the marketplace. I think all mobile wallet options will eventually be made available to consumers, but it won’t be because players were regulated to do so.
Watch for some clarifying statements from Google over the next few days, and don’t expect Google or PayPal to become aggressive objectors to other mobile wallet joint ventures.

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Huzzah! National Retail Federation Urges FTC To Stay Out of Mobile Payments. Are You Listening European Commission?

Apr 27, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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On April 26th the National Retail Federation told the Federal Trade Commission to stay out of mobile payments http://bit.ly/JxG0uv . They gave several lucid reasons for doing so:

Any regulations adopted “should parallel those for the underlying form of payment and not be specific to the technology”
Mobile technology and practices are just emerging and “the government should not impose regulations that would forestall yet-to-be-imagined advances and innovation in order to avoid potential harm based largely on speculation”
Mobile phones are “just a device, not a payment” and that “actual payment could take place via a credit or debit card, directly from a bank account, be processed through the user’s phone bill”

The National Retail Federation is the largest retail trade association in the world, and here they are telling the U.S. government and the rest of us to let mobile payments emerge and happen the way the market will have it. To me, that is an encouraging message to any would be player in the mobile payments ecosystem both NFC-based or cloud-based. Retailers want the market to slug it out.

Regulation is the enemy of innovation. For mobile payments to have any chance, they must evolve as dictated by the marketplace. The NRF is right – there are plenty of regulations in place for the payment industry as it stands and no need at this point to make any distinction about what device is used to make payments. We stand a chance of mobile payments succeeding in the U.S. if the FTC stays on the sideline.

So does that mean the European Commission isn’t interested in letting the free market create innovation in the mobile payments space with their probe of Project Oscar? Will consumers be harmed in these early days? It will be interesting to see if the FTC stays out of it. I hope they do, or we can kiss mobile payments goodbye.

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Samsung Galaxy S3 News, Rumors, and a Release Date

Apr 27, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The hotly anticipated Samsung Galaxy S3 will be launched on May 3 at Earls Court (exhibition center) in London. The new smartphone has generated quite a stir in the mobile industry after the great success of Samsung's last model, the Galaxy S2. Many people believe the S3 will only have a few minor adjustments and upgrades from S2; however, opinions differ greatly. In this ABI Insight, let's looks at some of the news and rumors about this new smartphone.

Speculation about the latest Samsung Galaxy 3 has spread far and wide. Let's run through a few bits of the juicy gossip:
  • The screen size is anticipated to increase from the SII's 4.3-inch screen to between 4.6 and 4.8 inches and using HD in 1080p. Additionally, the screen's pixel density is projected to increase from the S2's 217 pixels per inch (PPI) to 312 PPI.
  • People in the 4.6 inch-screen camp believe that the overall device size may not increase. Instead, they assume that Samsung will introduce an "edgeless" design.
  • The new smartphone will have a ceramic or metal case (possibly a brushed blue metal) instead of a plastic case.
  • It's generally anticipated the primary camera will increase from 8 megapixels to 12 or 16 megapixels. Not so clear is whether the front facing camera will increase from 1.3 megapixels to 2 megapixels.
  • Speculation about wireless charging and a stylus for sketching and handwriting similar to the one on the Samsung Galaxy Note has been bounced around, but I am unsure on these features. I think Samsung may want to try and keep some differentiating features between the Note and the latest Galaxy.
  • Delving into the hardware specifications, speculation is that the new smartphone will contain a quad-core processor. The HTC One X, LG Optimus 4X HD, and Huawei Ascend D1 all have quad-core processors and Samsung will receive significant criticism if its new S3 doesn't have the same processing performance.
  • Afrequently mentioned feature is contactless payment technology (NFC). The Samsung Galaxy S3 will be the official London Olympic phone and the company will be making phones for the Olympics. Visa, another partner for the London games, has been seriously pushing contactless payment on consumers. Could this also be an opportunity to highlight NFC's ability to link and log into locations and tags?

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HTC Q1 2012 Results

Apr 26, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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HTC’s total revenues for Q1 2012 were $2.3 billion (67.8 billion New Taiwan Dollars), dropping by 33.2% from the previous quarter, and declining 34.9% from Q1 2011. The Taiwanese company’s gross margin was 25.03% and operating margin 7.53%; again, both financial ratios declined from the previous quarters by 2.09% and 5.18%, respectively. Additionally, HTC’s market share in the US has suffered greatly at the hands of Apple’s iPhone 4S and HTC’s CEO, Peter Chou, believes it will be impossible for HTC to dominate the US market in the near-term future.

HTC have stated several reasons for its revenue declines. First, the company is transitioning between different product cycles. Second, it has changed its strategy focus from Q1 2011 due to the rapidly changing competitive environment and this has also affected it operations and thus revenues. Chou also mentioned a number of errors in HTC’s strategic leadership, however, he declined to clarify during the Q1 2012 financial quarter call, where and who were making these mistakes. A major concern for HTC is its profit margins, although revenues fell by 35% from last year’s previous quarter, the company’s net income after tax dropped by 70%. HTC is projecting to generate $3.5 billion (105 billion New Taiwan Dollars) in the next quarter and its gross margin and operating margin should be approximately 27% and 11%, respectively.

HTC released its new One series in February atMobile World Congress, and so far, the new smartphone has received a number of positive reviews. The new model follows on from the HTC Sensation services. The HTC One X has a 4.7 inch touch screen display and contains quite a lot of impressive kit, including a 1.5 GHz quad processor. ABI Research recently included it in a recent reporton hybrid smartphones/tablets and super smartphones. The HTC One series will be released in China this week and the firm also released the HTC J in Japan via the Japanese network carrier, KDDI.

Interestingly, HTC declared, during its financial Q1 2012 call, that it would still place equal focus and effort on Google’s Android and Microsoft’s Windows Phone operating system. Peter Chou believes HTC has had a long and special relationship with Microsoft and the new Windows Phone 8 is going to present a very good opportunity for HTC. This may sound very strange considering the increasing popularity of Google’s mobile operating systems globally; however, I suppose these are the types of statements CEOs need to make to keep both firms happy.

Examining HTC’s revenues by region, the Americas, EMEA, and Asia each accounted for a third of the company’s revenues. HTC doesn’t expect to gain much traction back in the North America market which is heavily dominated by Apple’s iPhone. EMEA holds a little bit of growth potential but not too much. HTC expects to see the majority of its growth generated from Asia, or more specifically China. One of the major beliefs within HTC is that its brand is well understood in China. Also, Chinese consumers appreciate the designs and craftsmanship of HTC phones. Nevertheless, Mr. Chou was quick to emphasize all HTC’s regional markets were of equal importance.
My conclusion for HTC is that 2012 will be tough and challenging year. As HTC have seen in the past year, the smartphone competitive environment is very dynamic and tough. HTC’s budget for marketing and sales has been abnormally high compared to its revenues; however, I believe this will be the norm for HTC in the future. Additionally, HTC is placing enormous faith in the China smartphone market. I believe a major obstacle could be its pricing. HTC’s lowest price smartphone in China is $1,999 RB ($317). Apple has now released the iPhone 4 for $99.

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T-Mobile, Galaxy S, Ice Cream Sandwich and Upgrades

Apr 26, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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I’ve been a happy user of a Samsung Galaxy S phone since 10/19/12 (or so T-Mobile tells me). I’m a heavy and regular user of productivity apps, including Gmail, Outlook, Google Reader, the web browser, and Google Maps. I’ve had my share of fun with some games, including Angry Birds, Doodle Jump, Plants vs. Zombies and even Drag Racing (why, I don’t know). My kids (3 & 5) love to pry it from my hands to watch the Cat in the Hat, color with Zebra Paint, do puzzles, play Chuzzle, etc. As a TV & Video analyst, I’ve tested and/or used a number of video applications on my phone, including Netflix, HBO Go (far and away the best UI and experience), Cox Connect to program my mom’s DVR (ugh! In so many ways) as well as sideloaded some movies from DVD and/or Digital Copy onto it – not to mention watching the pre-installed Avatar on it while stuck in the car for too long.

I just read that Ice Cream Sandwich won’t be supported on my phone . While I understand the need to have more recent specs to get a more recent OS, and the device fragmentation that exists within the ecosystem, it seems that if operators are trying to decrease the financial impact of phone subsidies on their business, they should be upgrading as many phones as possible.

Now, there is absolutely nothing I need about Ice Cream Sandwich. Sure, some of the improved UI might take a few less keystrokes to do some common things. But all in all, the biggest thing I’d want out of a new phone is a faster processor (my phone gets laggy in processing keypresses if I’ve been doing too much on it and/or haven’t rebooted it in a few days) as well as 4G speeds (for tethering and responsiveness when loading up the news). So -- T-Mobile tells me that I’ll soon (4 months) be eligible for the “lowest upgrade price” on new phones – having had my phone for 22 months. The only thing more frustrating that a 2 year wait for a new phone with all the whiz-bang features is waiting for a refresh on your Cable DVR – that’s totally out of your control!

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Datawind unveils Ubislate7+ and Ubislate7C tablets

Apr 26, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Datawind, popularly known for its association with the Indian government’s Aakash project, unveiled two new tablets Ubislate7+ and Ubislate7C in New Delhi yesterday for open market sale, competing against several other low cost tablets available in the Indian market. These tablets are upgraded versions of the previously offered “Aakash” (Ubislate 7) tablet. The two new tablets have almost similar specifications and differ only in terms of display type and internal storage capacity. Key specifications include 7” display, Android 2.3 Operating system, Cortex A8 800 MHz processor, 256 MB RAM, Wi-Fi and GPRS connectivity, micro-SD card slot and USB port. The 3200 mAh battery is a big improvement from the 2100 mAh battery in its earlier offering. The devices also support voice calls and 3G connectivity can be supported via external dongles.

Ubislate7+ comes with a resistive display and 2GB internal storage, expandable to 32 GB and has been priced at INR 2999 ($60), whereas Ubislate7C has a capacitive screen and 4GB internal storage and is priced at INR 3999($80). With under $80 price point for these tablets, Datawind has maintained its differentiating factor of being one of the lowest priced tablets in the market. For internet access, Datawind has partnered with Aircel to offer a GPRS based internet plan, priced at INR 98($2) per month for 2GB. Currently, only Ubislate7+ is available for pre-order with Ubislate7C being available towards May-end.

The previous version of Ubislate (Aakash) was reported to have performance and quality related issues, so it remains to be seen if Datawind has been able to tackle those successfully in this version. Also, given the unprecedented pre-orders (about3 million as per Datawind) for these tablets and Datawind’s on-going issues with its supplier, it would be a challenge to fulfil these orders within the stipulated time and there might be unwanted delays before the devices get into the hands of consumers.

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HTC One S Includes Industry First, 28 nm S4 Chipset from Qualcomm

Apr 23, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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As part of their new "One Series" line of smartphones, the HTC One X is getting a lot of publicity since its recent launch. The latest release in this series, the HTC One S should gain much more attention for what's under the hood. The One X has components we have seen in prior phones but the One S sports the very first 28nm S4 chipset from Qualcomm, the MSM8260A. The MSM8260A comes in33% smaller than its older sibling, the MSM8260, but it contains more power in that smaller size. The One X will not be forgotten though. ABI Research expects that when it hits the USA shortly, it will also contain a 28nm chip from Qualcomm. This chip has the same application processor capability but adds LTE compatibility to the modem.

See an initial photo of the new chip – taken direct from our teardown – below. Clients can access some information on the myABI client site now, with additional information expected in the next day or so.

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ST-Ericsson's New Strategy - Part ??

Apr 23, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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As I type this a presentation is about to begin covering STE's announcement today regarding its new focus - Platform ICs.
A logical step no doubt, STE is one of few companies that has the product portfolio to be a platform IC supplier. It has struggled of late, that is well documented. I have followed this in previous insights:

It is building its new strategy on 4 key points:
1. Focus of integrated platforms for smartphones and media tablets
There have been signs of growth in STE’s platform ICs, it announced over 5 design wins at MWC for its Nova Thor platform. The design wins at Samsung, HTC, Motorola, Sharp, Nokia and Sony show that its new products are desired by OEMs, ST-Ericsson success will now hinge on these handsets (and any future design wins) seeing strong units sales.

2. Partnership with STMircroelectronics for apps processors
STM will develop the AP engine and make it available to STE under license for its platform ICs.

3. Accelerate time to market
4. Lower break-even point
Points 2-4 are very much linked. STM will take all apps processor personnel and the overall number of R&D centers will be reduced, workforce reduction of around 1700 employees, streamlining of general and administration activities - thus helping to accelerate time to market and lower break-even point.

A formal ABI insight will follow…..
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