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ABI Research Blog (87)

Telecom Regulation: Spectrum Cap

Oct 8, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) of Thailand has trimmed down the maximum amount of frequency a carrier can purchase in the upcoming 3G auction from 20 MHz to 15 MHz.

With 45 MHz to go around, the tightened limit implies that the big three – namely Advanced Info Service (AIS), Total Access Communication (DTAC), and True – can now secure an equal share of the pie quite easily. The NBTC hopes that reduced competition will translate into lower spectrum acquisition costs for carriers and hence more affordable 3G services for consumers.

However, the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) describes the wireless industry as "a profit-maximizing monopoly dominated by three operators" and contends that the 3G service tariff will therefore probably be steep anyway. Meanwhile, the government will not earn as much as it could from the auction.

The NBTC counters that competition for the scarce resource will still be healthy, because the 45 MHz is split into nine slots that are not homogenous. Operators will therefore be fighting for optimal slots with the least interference. In addition, the Chief Executive Officer of AIS has indicated that slots adjacent to those currently occupied by the Telecom of Thailand (TOT) are more desirable due to the possibility of future strategic business partnerships.

So who is right? Our recently published Insight​ takes a look at the impact of this policy revision.

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Stepping up security efforts in mobile health and medical devices

Oct 5, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Until recently, security issues in the mobile health space have remained fairly narrow in scope. Primary considerations have focused on potentially defective software and firmware, battery life or interference caused by electromagnetic signals. However, mobile health is evolving from a niche market to a more mainstream one, alongside the snowballing adoption of smart devices. This growth has popularized mobile health apps and boosted the development of consumer-oriented health sensors and peripherals for smart devices. Governments have started paying more attention to the security context of mobile health, both from a network and software perspective.

The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) just released a report on medical devices, encouraging the Federal Drug Administration (FDA) to expand information security considerations for certain types of medical devices. The report acknowledges the FDA’s past efforts in addressing risks from unintentional threats, but now stresses that the FDA must start to seriously consider intentional threats as well. The report highlights three key intentional threats to active implantable medical devices (such as pacemakers and insulin pumps): unauthorized access, malware and denial of service attacks. The report emphasizes that as technology evolves and devices become more complex, the risk potential is likely to increase. The GAO concludes by setting down some basic starting recommendations for the FDA, including actively investigating information security problems. The full report available here.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the European Commission Director General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology recently endorsed a European Directory of Health Apps. Produced in cooperation with the European Health Forum, the directory is a result of an extensive consumer and patient group survey of 200+ mobile health applications across 62 specialties and in 32 different European languages. Although not strictly focused on security aspects, the Directory certainly goes a long way in providing a resource for tested and authenticated apps. Sifting through the innumerable health apps on app stores and validating their reliability is not always evident for the individual end user. The Directory can provide a trust-worthy source of information on a number of health-related apps, paving the way to further efforts on authentication and validation in the mobile health space. The Directory can be accessed here.

These two separate efforts clearly show that mobile health is a maturing space, and therefore one that is likely to attract malfeasors. Considerations in terms of device/network security and app authentication are critical in the context of health, and there’s no doubt that there is significant potential for targeted security solutions in this area. ​

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Could Operators be Considering Deploying LTE FDD and LTE TDD at the Same Time?

Oct 2, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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LTE TDD, or the “Time Division Duplex” variant of 4G LTE, has been steadily gaining momentum over the past year or so. The number of commercial deployments has surpassed 10, and 36 more are either in commercial roll-out or trials. There are signs that not only are a number of greenfield LTE operators considering LTE TDD, but also by a number of incumbent mobile cellular operators.

One of the reasons for the interest in LTE TDD has been the commitment to support both LTE TDD and FDD on the same chipset for mobile devices. It should help to drive economies of scales for mobile device production for both operator deployments. But there is an additional dimension: LTE operators may even secure blocks of spectrum for FDD and TDD LTE operation within their own market. Why? Because a mobile operator can use LTE TDD, and FDD, to expand coverage and/or capacity within their own network.

SK Telecom, in conjunction with Ericsson and Altair Semiconductor, has developed handover technology that confirms handover between FDD LTE and TD-LTE can be as seamless as handover on single FDD mode between different bands. LTE TDD, instead of being a bit-part player on the 4G stage may be rapidly evolving into playing a major supporting role.
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FCC's Incentive Auction - Freeing Up Spectrum

Oct 2, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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On the 28th September 2012, the USA’s FCC announced it would be conducting a rather unique auction in 2014 to help alleviate an impeding spectrum crunch that is looming from the burgeoning adoption of 3G- and 4G-enabled smartphones, tablets, automotive vehicles, machine-to-machine modules, and other enterprise and consumer electronics.

The USA has been on the forefront of innovative regulatory policy. In the 1990s, the FCC applied Game Theory to ensure optimal price setting for PCS and AWS spectrum licenses. Now the FCC intends to set up an Incentive Auction that allows broadcast television spectrum to be repurposed for mobile broadband by offering the broadcasters financial incentives to relinquish some, or all, of their spectrum assets.

While the date for the FCC’s Incentive Auction is set for 2014, the FCC is still in the process of soliciting consultations from interested parties. It is certainly an innovative procedure and one that may well be emulated by a number of state spectrum regulators as a mechanism to arbitrate between incumbent and prospective spectrum stake-holders – not just in the mobile cellular industry but also potentially other industries that occupy wireless spectrum.
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Cybercrime's New Playground: Mobile

Sep 25, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Mobile has become the new playground for cybercrime, and so far, malware is having a field day. The migration of traditional PC-based threats, such as Trojans, spyware and spam, to the mobile platform is not surprising. The popularization of mobile operating systems such as Android, and the general lack of public awareness, has enabled malware to multiply exponentially over the past year.

Cybercriminals view mobile as another lucrative platform to exploit. And they are not the only ones. Mobile is attracting shady and unscrupulous parties employing any number of dubious practices: intrusive advertising, unauthorized data collection, government surveillance and corporate espionage.

The problem is that end-users do not view smartphones and tablets as posing any serious security risks. At best, they see the loss or theft of a device as an inconvenience or financial set-back. Organizations are slightly more conscious of the dangers but mostly think in terms of protecting corporate information and avoiding serious data breach.

Mobile devices however, need to be considered in a much broader light. Capable of a great number of functions, they are susceptible to similar threats as their desktop counterparts: phishing scams, ID theft, financial fraud, takeover by a botnet and infection by other crimeware. As mobile devices evolve and become more sophisticated, so will mobile threats. End-users need to start paying more attention now to how they use their phones and what they are installing on them.

There are a ton of mobile security solutions on the market, from simple anti-theft and antivirus apps to more inclusive mobile management services. The mobile security market has become serious business, and competition is set to heat up in the coming year. These issues are discussed in further detail in our recently published Analysis on mobile application security. Further discussion on whether organizations need mobile security can be read in our Insight. ​

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Initial Apple Maps Reaction

Sep 21, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​A few points on the blowout following the launch of Apple Maps:

There have been rumors for months that the beta version wasn’t up to scratch so Apple must have known there would be issues. There is another side to this story and it may well be that Google has intelligently forced Apple to play its hand a little earlier than it would have wanted.

Questions have to be asked about the effort Apple has placed on developing a complete solution. Google continued to utilize TeleAtlas maps (up until last year in Europe) to buy itself time to develop a solution. Apple has been acquiring in this space since 2009, giving it ample time to do the same. Instead it has had to rely on third parties to fill the major gaps in its offering.

Don’t blame the partners: Multiplication of sources is essential in building geodata now, its how this data is aggregated and analyzed that defines the services. Look at Google - it combines a variety of sources such as Census data, geographical survey data, Map maker, user data, street view cars, etc. However, Google (and Nokia) have a huge advantage in that much of its data is sourced internally, making it much easier to build from the ground up.

Maps are not about TBT navigation anymore: As the use and value of maps is now moving to local search it is the ability to accurately source, georeference, index and aggregate dynamic data (often duplicate) in a searchable way that will define the winners and losers.

Errors are an inevitable and ongoing part of building maps/geodata: This is why services like TomTom’s MapShare and Google’s Map Maker exist. People forget that Google had similar problems and it has taken time for it to get to where it is today. It hasn’t helped Apple that there have never been so many people to catch so many mistakes in such a short space of time, with so many mediums on which to broadcast them.

Apple is a master of public relations, but it can’t hide the fact that this is a service that has taken others years to optimize. To catalyze the process, it may need to reassess its current geodata aggregation strategy and the resources assigned to this area, which may lead to a round of high profile hiring and acquisition. It’s also vital that it starts incorporating the millions of users of Apple products in a way that will sharpen the data quickly as well as enabling businesses to submit/correct their data.

Longer term, Apple doesn’t have the same resources as Google, and it will continue to rely on acquisitions and 3rd parties. If Apple can get its house in order and build a successful geodata engine, it may find over time that sourcing 3rd party data also has its advantages. Google isn’t the best at everything and with social and indoor becoming important parts of the pie, there may be benefits.

Anyone who doesn’t believe the importance of maps as a tightly integrated part of the overall mobile phone experience just got confirmation.​

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Telecom Regulation: Tax

Sep 11, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​After surveying the impacts of spectrum mortgage as proposed in India, we cast our eyes on Brazil for another policy matter: tax.

Essentially, the Communications Minister of Brazil is concerned with the following:

“Excessive” taxes that amount to “38% of mobile phone bills”

“Distortion” as a result of higher taxes on prepaid services (52% of phone bills) than postpaid (21%)

By reducing taxes, the government aims to promote spending, thereby stimulating the economy. Of course, it is well aware of the trade-off involved between macroeconomic goals – growth and fiscal balance in this case. However, the minister believes that tax receipts do not have to fall given the rising revenue earned by the telecom industry – 10% year-on-year higher in 2011, he estimates.

There are other policy considerations, including the potential implications onthe goal of equity,digital divide andwelfare cost. Theseunexamined issues are explored in our recently published ABI Insight. We also looked at thefiscal prospect from another perspectivein the context of falling prepaid subscription ratio, as well asthe dynamic between a new tax regime and other measures to boost smartphone penetration.

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Sole Branded Citigroup Cards Coming To China

Sep 10, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Citigroup announced in August that it was to become the first U.S bank to issue Citigroup branded payment cards into the Chinese market, without the co-branding of CUP (China Union Pay), although CUP will be processing the transactions on behalf of Citigroup the drop in co-branding indicates a growing openness in its payment and banking regulations.

I recently complete a study into China’s migration into second generation microcontrollers and one of my main findings was that the Chinese markets as a whole are becoming more open, relaxing its restrictions and allowing non-local vendors the opportunity to compete in markets that traditionally were locked to local vendor participation only.
China’s relaxing regulations is primary driven by two main reasons:
China desire to adopt and migrate to high end technologies, means that outsourcing to non-local vendors is sometimes a necessity with local vendors currently unable to produce a comparable solution
There has been much lobbying about China’s “unfair” regulations, closing off external competition or making it extremely difficult and challenging to enter the market. One example saw both MasterCard and Visa take such a case to the World Trade Organisation to which it won partial support
Pair the relaxing regulations with a dramatically growing market and the recipe is created for banks, financial institutions, smart card and IC vendors to increase their interests and focus within China. The banking population in the region is growing at a substantial rate. As well as a growing market, China is embarking on card migration to its PBOC 2.0 standard alongside a new social security/payments card, to which the government plans to deploy around 800 million by 2015. Overall ABI Research forecasts that the installed base of payment cards within China will increase by 360 million units between now and 2017, at which point China will account for 26% of all smart payment cards in circulation worldwide.
I think although Citigroup have become the first US bank to deploy a sole-branded card, it also needs to be noted that CUP participation is still active with it processing the transactions. I do not believe that this scenario will change in the near or mid-term future. Although China may be softening its stance with its regulations on foreign vendor participation, I believe that partnerships with local vendors will always be a requirement in some shape or form to maintain a slice of the pie for Chinese stakeholders.
More in depth analyses and detailed forecasted data on China’s payment cards market can be located within ABI Research’s Security & ID practice, under the Payment and Banking Cards & Contactless Technologies service.

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Varyingly Coherent HTML5 Musings

Sep 4, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​We’ve been doing quite a bit of research on HTML5 lately, especially when it comes to quantifying its impact on mobile app development. I’ve personally grown slightly concerned by the width of generalizations that you tend to see in the discourse over this subject. There are a lot of predictions (many of them, admittedly, very insightful) flying around, but with preciously few numbers backing them up. For that reason, we have as part of our Mobile Application Enabling Technologies service conducted forecasts that include tons of data on how we estimate the 25 most important HTML5 features to be adopted in the coming years. Naturally, we’ve got also forecasts on the installed base of HTML5-capable mobile devices.

On top of that, there’s also a new study that among other things includes an assessment of how feasibly apps from different categories could be built by using the web code. To do this, we reviewed close to 600 individual iOS apps one by one and rated their “HTML5 feasibility” on a four-point scale. With a score of 1 implying a “negligible” feasibility and 4 implying a “strong feasibility”, the mean score for all sampled apps was 2.6 – but there’s obviously a large degree of variance between the categories.

But I digress. Instead of being diverted to a thinly veiled marketing pitch, I actually wanted to talk about browsers. My expectations of the mobile web probably count as (for the lack of a better word) mildly bullish, and that is mainly because I’m also expecting a lot of innovation out of the mobile browsers. HTML5 will be factoring into developer strategies certainly also in the form of hybrid apps, which are distributed via native storefronts, but in the actual open web it’s namely the browsers that either unleash or smother its potential.

Given Android’s share of the device market, Google is understandably a key player here. The regular Android browser did a remarkably poor job as an enabler of HTML5 features, but with hindsight I’d assume that this was down to the behind-the-scene work Google was doing on Chrome. And now that Chrome has been successfully migrated to the mobile environment, it really does beat the latest Android built-in browsers hands down. If you haven’t tried them for yourself, you can get a goo​d idea of the progress from the always-interesting HTML5 Test site.

And then there’s always the current frontrunner, Dolphin, which in August became the first browser to pass the Ring 1 on Facebook’s Ringmark test. It’s also the first mobile browser to try its luck with two nascent but long-term crucial APIs: camera access, and push notifications. I don’t expect developers, let alone mobile web users, jumping to adopt such features en masse before they become more widely enabled (i.e. enabled by native browsers), but it’s with moves like this how we’ll get the ball rolling.​​

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Gesture Recognition Enabled Mobile Devices

Aug 30, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​Gestures are ingrained in human communication and it is virtually impossible to communicate with someone without moving your hands or gesticulating with your fingers while in conversation. Gesture recognition technology adds another dimension to our interactions with machines, devices, or computers. It is projected that over 600 million smartphones will be shipped with vision-based gesture recognition features in 2017.

Camera-based tracking for gesture recognition has actually been in use for some time. Leading game consoles Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation both have gesture recognition equipment - Kinect and PlayStation Eye respectively. These devices are in their seventh and eighth generation. Several challenges remain for gesture recognition technology for mobile devices, including effectiveness of the technology in adverse light conditions, variations in the background, and high power consumption. However, it is believed these problems can be overcome with different tracking solutions and new technologies.

Currently, only a small number of the smartphones shipped have gesture recognition. Pantech, a Korean smartphone OEM, began selling its Vega LTE handset in Korea during November, 2011, with gesture recognition technology using camera-based tracking.
Finally, in our latest gesture recognition report we estimate that 27 million mobile devices shipped in 2012 will have gesture recognition technology. Currently, the only large volume device type being shipped using gesture recognition technology is the game console. By 2014, we expect to see mass adoption of the technology in the market, driven by personal mobile devices - smartphones and media tablets.
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