One of the leading M2M/IoT verticals, Smart Home is a field that we at ABI Research are covering extensively under our dedicated research service. My colleagues who specialize in the subject matter are currently working hard to analyze what Google’s acquisition of Nest, for no less than US$3.2 billion, will mean for the sector’s market dynamics. Meanwhile, I’ll give in the following my take on what it may mean for Google itself, as well as its IoT strategy.

Much is written about Softbank/Sprint acquiring T-Mobile.  The scale economies suggested by the Rule of Three and Four support this move, but there are a lot of obstacles in the way.  Ignoring the serious political implications of a telcom merger like this, we can look at one of the measures the DoJ uses to assess these proposals, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).  The failed AT&T acquisition of T-Mobile meant an HHI = 3208.  For this proposal, HHI = 3162, is also troubling.  Previously, AT&T/T-Mobile meant a super-sized firm, while the Sprint/T-Mobile speculation presents the market with a third and strong competitor. 

I didn’t attend the show myself this year, but for what I’ve followed the media coverage and observations from my fellow ABIers who have been at the event, it would seem that the Internet of Things has indeed been at the epicentre of CES 2014. This isn't too surprising. A quick glimpse of Google Trends, for example, confirms that the IoT reached such a level of buzz in 2013 that it’s evidently starting to show up also in the consumer space.

One of the ending year's most interesting IoT news came toward the very end of it, with PTC announcing in the evening of the 30th that it would acquire ThingWorx for approx. US$112 million. That is a hefty price tag for an early-stage start-up that over the next 12 months is expected to bring in to PTC about $10m in new revenues. As such, it's a strong endorsement of, on one hand, the long-term potential of ThingWorx's technology and, on the other hand, the growth trajectory of the overall IoT space. The physical world is being connected at a dramatic speed, and that is creating massive opportunities for companies that can make themselves needed - or even critical - in the emerging value chain. 

On December 22, 2013, China Mobile finally inked contract with Apple to sell iPhone handset devices in China. As part of the agreement, iphone 5s and 5c will be available from China Mobile's retail stores as well as Apple retail stores across mainland China from January 17, 2014. 

Cybercrime will increasingly merge with the cyberwarfare landscape. As nation states and other legitimate organizations continue to engage in political espionage and offensive security, the boundaries between criminal activities and national security prerogatives will gradually blur. Many state-sponsored groups make use of commercial-off-the-shelf malware in their espionage campaigns. In China, there is an explosive black market in hacking and surveillance tools selling directly to the government. The US NSA uses a similar methodology to high level cybercrime operations. In particular, it’s Foxacid Exploit Kit has been readily compared to the Blackhole EK.    Such activities indicate the use of popular hacking techniques commonly employed by cybercriminals and amateur hackers.

The arrival of Apple’s iBeacon* and Paypal’s BLE Beacon has stolen the headlines but there are a host of companies that have been active in this space for some time. As well as long term start-ups like WirelessWerx, ABI Research observed about a year ago a clear shift in Wi-Fi based companies towards Bluetooth on the back of Apple’s decision not to open Wi-Fi APIs as well as growing speculation that it would in fact back BLE. Companies like Estimote, Wifarer, Insiteo and Walkbase were some of the first to make the jump, but now we are seeing big names like Qualcomm, Shopkick and ShopperTrak also getting in on this, (again, as forecast by ABI Research) and they will by no means be the last. We are fast approaching a stage where if you don’t have BLE support, you better have a very good reason for it, hence a number of announcements ahead of CES and NRF (which ABI will be attending).

There are several rumors regarding the issuance date of 4G licenses being November 28, December 18, or the end of December. November 28 has already passed without issuing licenses, so it is speculated that licenses might be issued to coincide with the date of China Mobile's introduction of the 4G brand. Finally, China has issued TD-LTE licenses on December 4, 2013 after a year of speculation. Why is the allocation of 4G spectrum so mysterious? What is the concern behind the 4G licenses?