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ABI Research Blog (124)

AT&T Adds OpenPeak’s OpenTablet to 2010 Media Tablet Lineup

Mar 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Close on the heels of January’s Apple iPad announcement, AT&T is doubling consumer choice by offering the OpenTablet media tablet from OpenPeak. The 7” tablet will feature AT&T wireless connectivity via the HSPA 3G network, as well as 802.11b/g/n Wi-Fi and Bluetooth connectivity. In addition to the home-based usage scenarios (social networking, downloading books, navigation, email and instant messaging, music, video and photo sharing) envisioned for the fledgling media tablet market, OpenTablet also explores home security and energy consumption monitoring applications.

While all of the media tablets announced in 2009 and early 2010 have been designed around an ARM-based processor architecture, the OpenTablet device will incorporate Intel’s next-gen Atom “Moorestown” x86 platform. The OpenTablet device is planned for commercial availability on the AT&T 3G network in late 2010.

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CTIA Report: OK Labs Pushes Mobile Virtualization

Mar 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Assuming that we are nearing a new movement in how mobile phones are developed, what will be the main reason mobile virtualization takes off for mobile handsets? Open Kernal Labs, which has been championing the concept of mobile virtualization, made a number of announcements at CTIA and the months leading up to the show that have some wondering just how far it will go.

Virtualization in a smartphone has the potential to deliver a number of benefits that can include the running of dual operating systems which is interesting to enterprises that have standardized on a platform but allow their users to choose their own mobile phones. Its also has the interest of operators that want the higher ARPU that smartphones produce, but still want to migrate their legacy applications. However, none of that will be the draw that lower costs will be. The ability to consolidate hardware including CPUs, reduce the phone’s memory requirements, allow smaller batteries to be used because fewer individual CPUs and components are supported, all lead to a lower overall BOM cost.



As retail prices continue to decline on smartphones, pressure will mount on the wholesale prices and OEMs willstart to get creative in how to lower BOM costs. Could virtualization be the way? Undoubtedly a number of OEM will give it a try. Motorola already has with its Evoke, which runs a propriety Linux OS and Brew.

At CTIA, OK Labs announced a new virtualization product called Android One Core, which helps OEMs streamline the development of low-cost Android-based smartphones for the mass market. It achieves this by consolidating application, multimedia, and baseband radio processing onto a single CPU which may allow Android phones to be built at the average cost of a basic phone. Android was always intended to scale from the most capable of smartphone down to the lowest-end of the smartphone scale. That low-end, however, just got lower.

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CTIA Report: Samsung's Moment

Mar 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Samsung introduced the Moment smartphone at CTIA. The significance of the announcement is less about it being Samsung’s first Android handheld device, as the Moment has been available at Sprint since aurumn 2009. It is more about it being the first cellular handset to feature “true” mobile TV connectivity in the United States via the emerging ATSC Mobile DTV technology. ATSC Mobile DTV enables “free-to-air” (FTA) mobile DTV services from local broadcasters and cable TV operators. Live and linear DTV programming will soon be simulcast from most local broadcast stations throughout the US, such as KVVU Channel 5 in Las Vegas, to a proliferation of mobile devices, such as mobile Internet devices (MIDs), automotive rear seat infotainment systems and multimedia cellular handsets.

FTA mobile DTV services have been widely available in Japan and South Korea for years and have driven a high rate of adoption of mobile DTV services in those regional markets, due to the desire of most mobile consumers to enjoy their local TV channels while away from their living rooms. Not only has it supported consumer awareness of the value-add of mobile DTV services, but it has also driven the potentially lucrative adoption of premium “TV 2.0” services over cellular unicast networks, such as SprintTV. TV 2.0 is the convergence of delayed, recorded and syndicated DTV programs with popular Web 2.0 applications, such as Facebook social networking and Twitter multimedia blogging, and enhanced with personalization, location, presence and community features.

Mobile DTV services in the US will be widely available by next year’s CTIA as they are currently being showcased in the Washington D.C. and Baltimore local regions. There are some understandable kinks to be smoothed out over the year, such as integrated mobile DTV and TV 2.0 electronic programming guides that can be accessed on the mobile device by one mobile widget and embedded antennas, but it is a relief to finally witness a true mobile DTV device and service. And, of course, the availability of more mobile DTV-enabled devices and the monetization of the services through advertisement, as that is the traditional terrestrial DTV business model.

But, for now we should just enjoy the Moment and stay tuned…

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AT&T’s rather phased Nationwide Femtocell Launch

Mar 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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While AT&T announced its plans for nationwide femtocell launch in 2010 yesterday, it was slightly disappointing to see lack of detail on which markets will go live in mid-April. Apart from the trial markets of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, San Diego and Las Vegas, it might be useful to know where else AT&T expects to deploy femtocells next.



The reason is that there are plenty of Iphone customers out there who are really hurting and would like to see a femtocell service in their area. This includes capacity crunch hotspots like New York, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston and other big cities. Although no specific Iphone bundles for the AT&T Microcell have been announced, AT&T hasn’t ruled them out. It’s likely that such bundles might become available for specific target markets like San Francisco (one of the rumored next markets) or New York on an ad-hoc basis.



While the Verizon ‘There’s a Map for That’ controversy is still fresh in people's minds, one would think that femtocells would allow AT&T to efficiently counter the Verizon onslaught, and do it on the cheap. However, AT&T plans to play it slow, not make too much of a noise about the 3G Microcell. One probable reason could be that AT&T is afraid that some sections of the market might react negatively with consumers having to pay $150 from their own pocket to have AT&T match Verizon’s 3G coverage. However this is less likely to be the case.



If one looks at Vodafone’s Sure Signal big-budget media campaign in the UK it only came six months after its initial launch date. Vodafone only pulled the trigger after they were completely sure that their operations, marketing and sales were completely aligned. Operators need time to sort out critical back-end integration and provisioning issues before they can really go mass-market with femtocells. It might just be that AT&T changes their tactic in 6-9 months time, really going ballistic with a media campaign. There are already suggestions that AT&T is looking for a second supplier apart from Cisco to ramp up their femto rollout.



Apart from that there are some other key differentiators in AT&Ts femtocell rollout, some of which haven't been really been brought out in their press release. Studying those differentiators, it probably suggests that they have carefully thought through their femtocell strategy and could have a bigger plan up their sleeve.



For more on what those differentiators are, there is a separate Analyst Insight which digs deeper into understanding the implications of the AT&T femto rollout. This insight is available to subscribers of ABI Research’s Femtocell Service.





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CTIA Report: Hesse Hints at Mobile Plan Price Shift

Mar 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Sprint CEO Dan Hesse said at CTIA that in about two years, monthly cell phone bills will focus on how much data is used instead of how many voice minutes are used.Voice plans have gotten cheaper and at the same time there is a shift to smartphones with data plans.At some point voice becomes just another application over data.But until then we at ABI Researchthink this type of change will take much more than two years across the industry.More people have to move to smartphones, and voice needs to shift to VoIP.There is an increasing use of Skype, Line 2, and other VoIP services available to use on smartphones, but mobile operators also need to offer their own robust VoIP service as a replacement to cellular voice.Then mobile phone service plans will certainly move from voice minutes to buckets of data.Dan Hesse seems to be referring to metered plans, but beyond that, this could also mean shared buckets of data across multiple devices.
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CTIA Report: App Dilemma – Who’s Going To Tell Me What I Want?

Mar 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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I won’t claim that I completely scoured the exhibit floor at CTIA over the past two days, but in my relatively pointed search there seemed to be a remarkable absence of vendors hawking app discovery tools/engines. I think the lack of these tools is a BIG problem.ABI Research will publish our latest report on Mobile Application Storefronts next week.In it, I discuss in detail the fly in the ointment for unchecked growth of the mobile app juggernaut – discoverability.

As inventory in app stores grow, the challenge of discoverability becomes a problem for both app developer and consumers.App developers have no way to differentiate, and consumers don’t know what to look for.Sure, there are top ten lists and categories within the app stores.There are online websites dedicated to reviews.There are a couple of apps in iTunes – RAVE! and Chorus -- that will connect you to your social network for recommendations (both of which I found to be cumbersome).But really, none of these tools works very well.The mobile app is peculiar in the sense that by and large, consumers have no idea what they want in the form of apps, and the analogy I like to use would be this – You are hungry, so you decide to go to the grocery store and walk down every aisle looking at each shelf until you find all the food you want today.Nobody does that, and you wouldn’t expect app discoverability to work the same way either.

Truly what’s needed for mobile apps to survive and thrive in the long run are recommendation engines, like we see from hmmm… Apple (Genius) or Amazon.I would think that might be a challenge though.What do you do for newbies?Or how do you predict future behavior on past actions, particularly for something so broad as software?I will give you an example.On my iPhone, here are some of the apps I have – Shazam, ESPN Score Center, Mint, Grocery List, Southwest Airlines, a Guitar Tuner, PayPal.What do I want next?How the hell should I know?Oh, and as I side note, CTIA created an app for the show, and it was totally useless.

I will tell you this – most of what I personally use in terms of apps are brand extensions – apps that I knew of because they are promoted OUTSIDE of the app store.I think this trend will grow and eventually dominate app discoverability.

Yet, there may be hope.Yesterday, I spoke with OpenMarket, the venerable premium content aggregator.I found that OpenMarket does have an interesting recommendation engine – one that becomes a potential leverage point for MNOs.Openmarket’s engine taps into demographic and data usage pattern data, particularly web traffic patterns, on individual subscribers to develop app recommendations.That is very interesting.There may be some challenges to the idea – MNOs would need to obtain opt-in permission from each subscriber, but the precedent for opt-in is there.This could become a potential competitive edge for MNO app stores, or, it would be interesting if MNOs would seek to peddle that data to platform app stores.

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CTIA News -- Tuesday

Mar 24, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The big news Tuesday at CTIA was Sprint’s event at which CEO Dan Hesse and HTC CEO Peter Chou announced the HTC Evo 4G.This is the US’s first 4G smartphone.It’s an Android 2.1 device with a very large, vivid 4.3 inch display, an 8.0 megapixel camera, an additional 1.3 megapixel front-facing camera, and other typical features of cutting-edge smartphones such as Qualcomm’s 1 GHz Snapdragon processor/platform.Its Wi-Fi can also act as a bridge to allow up to 8 Wi-Fi devices to connect to the Evo 4G and use it as a broadband modem, a feature also previously introduced by the Palm Pre Plus.



Even without WiMAX, this is a great smartphone – probably one of the best if not the best on the market today. Having WiMAX makes it that much more cutting edge.It was inevitable that smartphones with WiMAX would hit the market, but what’s special about this announcement is the timing of availability.Last year, it was widely assumed that a 2010 WiMAX smartphone would likely hit the market at the very end of 2010, but this phone is in fact expected to be available this summer.This will be a key device that is highly likely to not only stem defections from Sprint, but also cause subscribers to other mobile operators to consider switching to Sprint.


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CTIA: It's All Bits and Dollars

Mar 24, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Here at CTIA a common theme expounded in most meetings is the need to drive bandwidth-hungry mobile services. Whether this is motivated by the desire to supress device price erosion orby the notion of connecting more bandwidth-hungry services with higher ARPUs, this is flawed.



What the industry really needs to focus on is lowering the cost per bit per hertz. This can only be serviced by a rapid transition in core network and backhual architectures coupled with innovative content caching and routing solutions. A failure to sort backhual and core network dimensioning will cripple 4G. We will have smart, capable devices running on archaic underprovisioned networks. Most importantly - a correct dimensioning of the network will be crucial in reducing the cost of 4G services of the future.
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CTIA: A Mixed Bag

Mar 24, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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After yesterday's huge amount of excitement over the Evo 4G from HTC and Sprint, Day Two sees the big news items dropping off. The sole exception to this is the AT&T announcement of its 3G voice-and-data femtocell for nationwide launch.

Summing up the show: C+. Footfall ok, but the content is poor in comparison to Mobile World Congress. Themes were Snapdragon-based Android phones and the growing importance of data traffic.
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CTIA: Crowded House – Verizon Enters Mobile Payments Space

Mar 23, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Yesterday at CTIA, Verizon announced a new partnership with BilltoMobile, the US arm of Korean mobile payments platform Danal.With the new service, consumers will be able to purchase digital goods online and the charges will be placed on the subscriber's mobile bill.Virtual goods have become something of an overnight phenomenon, thanks to the growth of social games like Farmville, offered via Facebook.In our recently published report Mobile Commerce,ABI Research forecasts that the virtual goods market will grow from $8.1 billion worldwide in 2009 to $26.2 billion by year's end 2015.Mobile payments for virtual goods will make up a substantial portion of consumers' payment options over that time period in many parts of the world.

What is interesting about Verizon’s move is that Verizon subscribers can already purchase virtual goods and pay through their mobile bill. Two established payment platforms – Zong and Boku – enable these payments today.Most of the online game providers do not work exclusively with payment platforms, meaning a consumer can choose, in the case of Farmville for example, to pay by mobile through Zong or Boku (Paymo), and that payment ultimately ends up on their carrier bill.So Verizon has opened up a third payment option to itself.In opening this direct option and bypassing Zong or Boku, Verizon avoids paying the percentage those platforms would take in revenue share.However, the main question becomes: what are the compelling factors for a consumer to choose a particular mobile payment option.How are they different? Today it’s just kind of confusing.

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