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ABI Research Blog (124)

CTIA News -- Tuesday

Mar 24, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The big news Tuesday at CTIA was Sprint’s event at which CEO Dan Hesse and HTC CEO Peter Chou announced the HTC Evo 4G.This is the US’s first 4G smartphone.It’s an Android 2.1 device with a very large, vivid 4.3 inch display, an 8.0 megapixel camera, an additional 1.3 megapixel front-facing camera, and other typical features of cutting-edge smartphones such as Qualcomm’s 1 GHz Snapdragon processor/platform.Its Wi-Fi can also act as a bridge to allow up to 8 Wi-Fi devices to connect to the Evo 4G and use it as a broadband modem, a feature also previously introduced by the Palm Pre Plus.



Even without WiMAX, this is a great smartphone – probably one of the best if not the best on the market today. Having WiMAX makes it that much more cutting edge.It was inevitable that smartphones with WiMAX would hit the market, but what’s special about this announcement is the timing of availability.Last year, it was widely assumed that a 2010 WiMAX smartphone would likely hit the market at the very end of 2010, but this phone is in fact expected to be available this summer.This will be a key device that is highly likely to not only stem defections from Sprint, but also cause subscribers to other mobile operators to consider switching to Sprint.


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CTIA: It's All Bits and Dollars

Mar 24, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Here at CTIA a common theme expounded in most meetings is the need to drive bandwidth-hungry mobile services. Whether this is motivated by the desire to supress device price erosion orby the notion of connecting more bandwidth-hungry services with higher ARPUs, this is flawed.



What the industry really needs to focus on is lowering the cost per bit per hertz. This can only be serviced by a rapid transition in core network and backhual architectures coupled with innovative content caching and routing solutions. A failure to sort backhual and core network dimensioning will cripple 4G. We will have smart, capable devices running on archaic underprovisioned networks. Most importantly - a correct dimensioning of the network will be crucial in reducing the cost of 4G services of the future.
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CTIA: A Mixed Bag

Mar 24, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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After yesterday's huge amount of excitement over the Evo 4G from HTC and Sprint, Day Two sees the big news items dropping off. The sole exception to this is the AT&T announcement of its 3G voice-and-data femtocell for nationwide launch.

Summing up the show: C+. Footfall ok, but the content is poor in comparison to Mobile World Congress. Themes were Snapdragon-based Android phones and the growing importance of data traffic.
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CTIA: Crowded House – Verizon Enters Mobile Payments Space

Mar 23, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Yesterday at CTIA, Verizon announced a new partnership with BilltoMobile, the US arm of Korean mobile payments platform Danal.With the new service, consumers will be able to purchase digital goods online and the charges will be placed on the subscriber's mobile bill.Virtual goods have become something of an overnight phenomenon, thanks to the growth of social games like Farmville, offered via Facebook.In our recently published report Mobile Commerce,ABI Research forecasts that the virtual goods market will grow from $8.1 billion worldwide in 2009 to $26.2 billion by year's end 2015.Mobile payments for virtual goods will make up a substantial portion of consumers' payment options over that time period in many parts of the world.

What is interesting about Verizon’s move is that Verizon subscribers can already purchase virtual goods and pay through their mobile bill. Two established payment platforms – Zong and Boku – enable these payments today.Most of the online game providers do not work exclusively with payment platforms, meaning a consumer can choose, in the case of Farmville for example, to pay by mobile through Zong or Boku (Paymo), and that payment ultimately ends up on their carrier bill.So Verizon has opened up a third payment option to itself.In opening this direct option and bypassing Zong or Boku, Verizon avoids paying the percentage those platforms would take in revenue share.However, the main question becomes: what are the compelling factors for a consumer to choose a particular mobile payment option.How are they different? Today it’s just kind of confusing.

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Cisco Exiting the WiMAX Base Station Market

Mar 5, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Let me get my umbrella out first . . . the media will be cloudy with a high chance of impending-doom-for-WiMAX stories.

OK. Is this really a bad thing for the WiMAX ecosystem? No. This is good for the WiMAX ecosystem and good for Cisco.

This is good for the WiMAX ecosystem because:


  • Cisco was not aggressive in marketing its WiMAX base stations that it acquired from Navini

  • There is one less WiMAX base station vendor - more opportunity for Alvarion, Huawei, Motorola, Samsung, ZTE, nd other smaller players


This good for Cisco because:


  • WWAN RAN was outside of Cisco's core competency

  • Cisco was not getting any significant business - likely because Cisco is not known for WWAN RAN

  • Staying outside of the WiMAX/LTE political game (however unreasonable it all is, it still does exist) is the smart thing to do


On the last point, it's not that Cisco ever chose sides, but rather simply the possible perception that could exist since they did not have any LTE base station products, and it would not have made sense to go up against the giant WWAN RAN vendors in that area.


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Apple sues HTC – it’s not an Android thing

Mar 3, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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First and foremost, I would like to state that I am not a patent lawyer, nor do I intend to become one…EVER.



The Nexus One, Touch Pro, Touch Diamond, Touch Pro 2, Tilt II, Pure, Imagio, Dream, myTouch, Hero, HD2, Droid Eris are the models that Apple has decided are in violation of illegally using Apple Inc. IP.



Listed below are the devices and the operating systems that they run. Touch Pro – WinMo 6 Touch Pro 2 – WinMo 6.1 Touch Diamond - WinMo 6.1 Tilt II - WinMo 6 Pure – Winmo 6.5 Imagio – Winmo 6.5 Dream - Android (1.6 donut) myTouch - Android (1.6 donut) Hero – Android 1.5 (cupcake) HD2 – WinMo 6.5 Eris – 1.5 (cupcake) Nexus One – 2.1 (clair)



The first thing to note is that on the surface this law suit does not appear solely to attack HTC’s use of Android specifically. In fact the patents in the federal part of the filings (non ITC part) seem to focus on attacking HTC’s user interface and how it is implemented over Android.

Through a reading of the non-technical descriptions of the patents, the ITC related claims question the way that one object (say a button on the home screen, or a object in the OS) requests information or action from another object (say a piece of information, system status, or starting a program) and how that process is managed. It is important to note that it is only in the ITC complaint that Window Mobile phones are referenced, and only on one of the patents in this complaint. This particular patent is also being brought up a against Nokia, although that case has been temporarily put on hold for the moment. The real confusing part here, is why is Apple bringing this type of complaint to HTC when most of these patents address core OS functionality.

In regards to the Windows devices and operating system, I believe that this argument becomes a moot point going forward for handset OEMs. With Windows 7, Microsoft has pretty much stated that they own the home screen and the OS now and that alterations are not openly welcome. As such handset OEMs will not be tinkering as much with the UI and exposing themselves to direct litigation.



In regard to Android devices, the future is a little more complicated. One of Google’s key value propositions was that handset OEMs could do whatever they like to the UI, and thereby establish their own brand over the Android OS. Now one of the top handset OEMs is in the line of fire for their UI technology that runs over Android. It can be expected that OHA (Open Handset Alliance) members, particularly the handset OEMs are going to pay careful attention to how Google manages this situation. In the short history of the OHA Google has been accused of being too powerful and having full control, not doing enough to help its alliance partners bring devices market, or suddenly becoming their competitor when they released the Nexus One device. Google has been very cautious in trying to strike the right balance of heavy hand and velvet glove, seeking to direct the ecosystem but not control it.



In this particular case, Apple is the financial heavyweight that has thrown the first punch, and HTC is the blindsided underdog struggling to develop its global brand awareness on the back of Android. Should Google offer to help support HTC’s legal defense and perhaps use them as a sheild to keep Apple from wining any groud towards the core Android OS; and if they do what type of precedent will this set for the OHA if Apple goes after every other OHA member for their custom designed UIs?

I would have to believe that Google does not want to defend the coding practices of every single Android licensee on the planet, but they do not want to alienate their partners or put Android itself at risk either. I believe that in practice, Google may attempt to make a few tweaks to Android in an attempt to minimize the potential for OEMs getting sued, but when it comes to paying legal fees, their stance will have to be ‘it’s not an Android thing’.

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Scribd Unveils Mobile Strategy for Online Document Viewing

Feb 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Known for being an online repository of electronic documents -- self-published books, marketing presentations and brochures, and clippings from other Internet sources -- Scribd claims more than 10 million online documents on its servers. The company recently unveiled a campaign to address mobile users that want to access Scribd documents on these handheld browsers along with emerging eBook Reader devices. Can the company pose a challenge to electronic booksellers Amazon or aggregators like Apple to view electronic content on a broader range of mobile devices?



There is no shortage of content available via the Internet – both good and bad quality. And there are as equally many ways to consume this content today – via web browser, proprietary document viewers, and even dedicated devices. One aspect that has remained elusive is how to organize and present this content in a meaningful way to each user. The opportunity for content delivery networks – whether an online bookstore, a document repository, or user-generated video clips – is to create some stickiness for an audience that cares.


Apple is tackling the challenge with the launch of the iBook store, whichwill initially be available to future iPad owners. Perhaps their strategy will broaden at some point and expand to include the installed bases of iPhone and iPod touch users. In contrast, the Amazon store is useful to those who have a dedicated eBook reader device or a document viewer app for their PC, Mac or smartphone.



Scribd has a differentroadblock entering the mobile market because it is not tied to a specific hardware platform. One might argue that the lack of a tie should make it easier for Scribd, but it means the company has to market and build awareness to the millions (not 'billions' as the company's CEO is quoted as remarking) of PC and smartphone owners who are interested in consuming digital text. It's a formidable task to take on alone, but the company thinks it is up for the challenge.
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More WiMAX Products from Cellular Modem Vendors are a Sign of WiMAX Growth to Come

Feb 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Cellular modem vendors are typically the first companies to produce WWAN products based on the latest technologies. The newest WWAN air interfaces have always seen their introduction in external cellular modems first, followed by miniCards (mini-PCI in the past) for embeddeding into laptops (and now netbooks, MIDs, smartbooks, tablets, e-readers, etc. as well). Sierra Wireless launched its OverDrive 3G/4G Mobile Hotspot on Sprint's network last month. Novatel Wireless announced its MiFi Intelligent Mobile Hotspot with WiMAX, which should be shipping in the second half of 2010.



The fact that the large cellular modem vendors are entering the market is a sign - among other signs and proof - that the WiMAX market is starting to take off. This year, Clearwire will build out its network to the point where its network will expand its population coverage from about 36 million (by ABI Research's estimates) to 120 million people. That is a nice market to sell to into within the United States while they wait for LTE networks to launch.
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Clearwire is Doing Well Based on 4Q09 Report

Feb 24, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Clearwire had its 4Q09 earnings call today, Wednesday 2/24/2010. I won't focus on the financials - I'll leave that to Wall Street. Here is a snapshot of the information relevant to the way ABI Research tracks the market:



Clearwire now has 688,000 total subsribers - both proprietary and mobile WiMAX. In the world of WiMAX and 4G, the relevant number is the number of mobile WiMAX susbscribers, which was 438,000 subscribers.



There are 250k proprietary subscribers. As Clearwire builds converts its proprietary markets over to mobile WiMAX, it leaves up the old network for about six to nine months as it coverts the exixsting susbscribers. The ratio of mobile WiMAX subscribers to proprietary subscribers has now shifted in favor of mobile WiMAX. There are nearly twice the number of mobile WiMAX than proprietary subscribers as of the end of 2009. It's probably more than twice at this point in time.



Clearwire has surpassed Russia's Yota as the largest mobile WiMAX service provider in the world now.


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Wholesale Applications Community – MNOs Can Change the Game With Web-based Apps

Feb 15, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today at the Mobile World Congress, some of the world’s largest MNOs got clever about mobile applications.


The Wholesale Applications Community initiative, backed by 24 MNOs from across the globe have unified themselves behind the idea of a single platform where mobile application developers can come and access a broad range of mobile subscribers, theoretically the largest addressable market for mobile applications on the planet.While this initiative is a long ways from becoming a reality, if the MNOs get it right, by 2011 we might see mobile application developers flock to the platform.


The announcement focused on standardized APIs across the participating MNOs, leveraging OMTP BONDI requirements.What wasn’t as apparent but perhaps the most important element of the announcement is the fact that these mobile applications will be web-based. That means mobile application developers can develop their applications one time, in HTML standards such as JavaScript HTML 5 and avoid specific and therefore costly development for Mobile OS, such as iPhone, Android, Symbian, RIM and more.Since July of 2009 ABI Research has been promoting the idea that a migration away from native applications to web-based applications can solve a great deal of fragmentation issues for mobile application developers and potentially open the floodgates on mobile apps for a very broad range of consumers.


But the group will have to get it right.Browsers in most phones will have to significantly improve. MNOs are notorious for talking about standards but then adding minor alterations by network which can defeat the intent of the standards.It will most likely take some time for the group to agree to standards they all can live with for PIM, LBS and particularly billing. It will also be difficult for MNOs to not get greedy.The announcement mentioned revenue sharing, alluding to a 70/30 split between app developers and MNOs.Competing app stores see mobile apps as a means to an end, and not the other way around, and this group will need to do the same.
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