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ABI Research Blog (122)

AT&T's Network Strategy Change Speaks Volumes About Its Thoughts on LTE's Readiness

May 14, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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AT&T had at one time intended to roll out HSPA+ across its network. Since they were going to eventually roll out LTE, I thought it didn't make sense to put more CAPEX behind the 3G network. In September 2009, AT&T did decide not to roll out HSPA+ and instead focus on LTE with initial commercial launches in 2011. In March, AT&T dropped hints that they actually would deploy HSPA+ in certain locations, indicating that its strategy might be to use HSPA+ in locations with the most severe capacity problems.



Today, AT&T announced that their 14.4 Mbps HSPA+ networks will cover about 250 million people by the end of this year. This means they are also expanding their 3G footprint. AT&T could have moved up its LTE plans, but it is sticking with its current plans. This demonstrates that they do not feel the LTE ecosystem is read at this point. AT&T will have 2 trial cities by the end of 2010, and launch LTE in a portion of its network at the end of 2011 - a schedule that seems a full year behind what Verizon Wireless is doing.
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Acer Rumored to be Polishing Chrome OS Demonstration for COMPUTEX 2010 in June

May 14, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Multiple news sources are reporting that Acer is planning to demonstrate its first computing systems running Google's Chrome operating system. The company will demonstrate several new product concepts at COMPUTEX 2010 in Taiwan.





Announced in September 2009, Chrome OS intends to offer a web-centric approach to computer operating systems. Google claims that the OS will be well-suited for mobile computing devices similar to currently available netbook computers. The recent surge in interest for home-based media tablets would also fit within scope. The first computers offered commercially with Chrome OS are still expected during the second half of 2010.



Perfect storm of converging trends (Source: Google and ABI Research)

COMPUTEX is the annual computer festival in Taipei where original design manufacturers (ODMs) show off the latest ideas for handsets and computers in hopes of landing deals with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), also known as branded handset and PC vendors. In 2009, the hot mobile computing topics at COMPUTEX were netbooks with Android OS and a new device form-factor called media tablets. Could Chrome OS become this year'sbuzz?



UPDATE: After the rumor spread far and wide, Acer uncharacteristically issued a media alert that they had no plans to demonstrate Chrome OS at COMPUTEX. Perhaps the news --while a let-down for those hoping to see the hardware software pairing from a PC OEM --gives opportunity for one or more ODM/OEM vendors to step up and show what a cloud-based operating system on an affordable computing platform looks like.
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More HTC Evo 4G Details - Premium Pricing

May 13, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The HTC Evo 4G is an exciting device because it has a lot of "firsts." It is the first handset with WiMAX in the United States and the first handset with any 4G air interface in the United States. It is not the first with WiMAX or first with 4G in the world though, since there have been smartphones with WiMAX in South Korea and Russia already. In Russia in was a 2G/4G smartphone, and in South Korea they were 3G/4G smartphones.

HTC Evo 4G

I was at the HTC Evo 4G event in NYC last evening. Mundane details that were announced: The HTC Evo 4G will be available on June 4th for $199.99 with a 2-year contract. This is a great subsidized price for a phone that has top specifications. The more interesting new details are:


  • $10 per month premium for WiMAX: This is on top of whichever voice and data plan the user gets.

  • $30 per month for mobole hotspot service: The phone can be used as a mobile router and share connections over Wi-Fi with up to 8 devices at the same time.

  • Qik software included: This device has two cameras - an 8MP on the back and a 1.3MP camera on the front for video conferencing. It was revealed yesterday that the device will include Qik videoconferencing software. Additionally, Sprint will be providing developers with a guide so they may more easily develop applications that take advantage of the front-facing camera.

  • Simultaneous voice and data on 4G: EV-DO cannot handle simultaneous voice and data, but today's EV-DO smartphones can do this when transmitting data over Wi-Fi. With WiMAX in the smartphone, it can do simultanous voice and data over WiMAX as well - voice over CDMA 1x and data over WiMAX.


Out of these, the most interesting one related to business and strategy around 4G service pricing is the $10 premium for WiMAX. There were always questions as to how much Sprint would increase ARPU by increasing data plan pricing for WiMAX. Sprint chose to offer data plans for non-phone devices - USB modems, laptops, and netbooks at the same price, which to the end user looks like free 4G on top of the same price for 3G, but is split somehow in the back-end. Now that Sprint is introducing its first phone with WiMAX, it has chosen to price the data plan at a $10 premium. The WiMAX service includes truly unlimited data over WiMAX. It will be interesting to see how this pricing strategy differs from what Verizon Wireless and other mobile operators come up with for thier 4G devices.


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Mobile Commerce Goes Viral? Facebook and the Mobile Gift Card Mall

May 13, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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At CTIA in late March, I had a chance to talk with CEO Bruce Springer of mobile commerce start up Transaction Wireless.The company has been working on providing mobile gift card solutions to U.S. retailers, and have successfully launched an initiative with AMC movie theaters and a planned launch for Bass Pro Shops.


They have done some innovative work, but Bruce dropped a bomb at CTIA, a project that might break mobile gift cards into mainstream.The company is readying to launch a mobile gift card “mall” on Facebook.


The way this would work is like this – TW has been able to create a solution where you can buy an online gift card and send it to any recipient with a mobile device.TW automatically configures the “card” into a form factor appropriate for the device, including text messages for low end phones up to bar codes for smartphones.So in the gift card mall, a consumer simply selects the card, pays for it (today, through PayPal or credit card) and includes the recipient’s mobile number. In addition to the gift card mall,retailers can sell mobile gift cards from their own Facebook pages in the same manner.


From there it has the potential to become viral.When a consumer buys a gift card, it also becomes a post on their FB page.


The project has real potential to become a success, if it can pass a critical litmus test – will the mobile gift cards be easy for the recipient to redeem?Since so many retailers could potentially be involved and there is no one standard way to redeem the amount (read a code to the clerk, barcode if store can process, etc.), this could prove to slow momentum if not properly executed.
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WebOS to do HP’s bidding in the Enterprise

Apr 30, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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With recent news and opinion flying around HP’s acquisition of Palm, we at ABI Research thought it important to take a step back and look at what this event means for HP, Palm and WebOS. It is well known that Palm needed a buyer who could sweep them off their feet and hit the ground running with WebOS. HP, while somewhat of a surprise is shaping up to be the perfect suitor for Palm because:

• They have the cash on hand to buy Palm in a hurry, and Palm did not have much time to waste
• Many former Palm executives currently work at HP including Todd Bradley who was once CEO of Palm and oversaw the highly successful Treo line of products. This will serve nicely to mitigate the bane of most mergers & acquisitions….corporate culture clash.
• HP and Palm are right down the street from one another.
• HP needed a quick, competent revamp of their smartphone products and strategy, and Palm is essentially a smartphone business in a box for HP with tried and tested IP.
• HP needed a competitive answer to the smartphone plays being made by Dell, Lenovo and Asus
• The key factor keeping WebOS from gaining momentum in the smartphone market was a lack of big budget advertising that HP can afford to deliver.
• For once, HP now owns its own OS to do with as it pleases. This point will have the greatest effect on the future of WebOS.

With this deal in place, we can feel fairly confident that WebOS smartphones will continue to exist in the market place and that the schedule carrier roll out plans will continue as scheduled. However, with HP paying a 20% premium for Palm, it is likely that HP will need to do more than just support the carrier driven smartphone sales if it wants to extract the full value of its new OS.

Both HP and its competitors have been openly targeting UMD segments such as tablet computers and media tablets. Until now, HP has been dependent on licensing the OS for these ’ in -development ‘ devices. This has also left HP trapped by the vision or limitations of what Windows can deliver for this segment of devices. With WebOS now under its purvey, HP has the opportunity to mold WebOS to its needs and its key customer segment, the enterprise.
WebOS may become the “glue” that solidifies HP’s solutions for the mobile enterprise market—not just leveraging the loyalty from Palm's storied past, but building synergy with HP’s growing enterprise networking portfolio, as well as its wireless networking and even its services solutions.

Tailoring devices for the enterprise UMD (Ultra Mobile Device) market requires the flexibility and control to manage the user experience from end to end. Devices need to support the requirements of both the business and the network, including applications, connectivity, and security. In addition, the development environment must support applications that use standard technologies and can be run natively or deployed from the cloud. To date, it has been difficult for HP to address the needs of this market while relying a proprietary OS from another vendor. With ownership of webOS, HP has all the pieces in place to develop and support a solid play in the enterprise smartphone and UMD market.

As HP continues to mold WebOS to meet its needs, RIM and Microsoft partners will have to watch their backs in the smartphone and tablet arenas.

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Nokia flagship smartphone knows what it has to do

Apr 27, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today, Nokia showcased the new Symbian^3 operating system on the new N8 smartphone. The combination of the new device and the new UI appear to have created the potential for a best in class user experience. I will withhold final judgment until I have held one in my hands, but the Nokia N8 promises to deliver a hard to beat smartphone experience.

At first glance the UI reminds me of what Nokia was doing with their N900 device. Nokia would often refer to the N900 as a ‘mobile computer’ or ‘mobile internet device’. It is good to see that Nokia realizes that a smartphone is a ‘mobile computer’ and that user expectations have increased greatly over the past year. In the smartphone market at large, UI design has shifted towards the use of aggregation widgets that combine multiple user accounts into one accessible location on the home screen. Nokia did not miss this trend and offers aggregated calendars, social networking and email in a customizable home screen. This will be an important feature that will allow today’s hyper connected user to easily manage multiple communication streams and keep them satisfied with the Symbian OS. The UI also supports ‘flicking’ and ‘pinching’ gestures for list navigation and zooming.

In regards to the entertainment experience at large, the N8 boasts high definition video (720p) and Dolby digital sound. Backing up its HD chops is a HDMI input on the device and Broadcom video acceleration technology. Furthermore the N8 has a 12MP camera; with face recognition and motion blur reduction software. In terms of media input and output, this device has positioned itself at the bleeding front edge of the spectrum. That being said, I still feel there are some things that Nokia could have done better here, in particular a method for wireless streaming of HD video to the television and geo-tagging for the camera application. With the inclusion of Wi-Fi Direct (the N8 offers 802.11n) or the DLNA standard, Nokia could have made a stand to promote how future smartphones will interact with the home.

In terms of service access, Nokia has paid careful attention to keep the Ovi store well within reach no matter what the user is engaged in. The most notable example is the free global streaming television channels that are offered with the device, with local TV options available at the Ovi store. Nokia is also offering free navigation for life with the N8 which keeps the device competitive with the slew of Android devices being released.

The one key concern for me is the 680 MHz processor that Nokia has chosen for the device. With competing handsets touting 1 GHz snapdragon processors, Nokia could be taking a risk in going with the lower powered processor. In Nokia’s defense, the N8 is said to carry twice the RAM to better support multi-tasking without slowing down, and the UI is said to operate at a snappy 60 fps which would make the device appear as responsive as a 1 GHz based device. The interesting point to me is the battery life of this device appears to be highly competitive and may end up being a key differentiating factor between the N8 and the family of power hungry 1GHz devices coming to market.

Although this device does not support 4G, it still offers a full checklist of technologies and applications mixed with the right UI approach. In the end Nokia has shown me that Nokia understands what a smartphone has to do, to be relevant in today’s market.

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Microsoft, Sharp, Verizon Wireless and Vodafone spawn KIN: a pair of Windows Phone handsets for social networking fanatics

Apr 12, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Microsoft unveiled two handsets today – KINONE and KINTWO -- focused on addressing the social networking needs of young adults. Powered by the recently launched Windows Phone (aka Windows Mobile 7) operating system, the handsets were designed and manufactured in collaboration with Sharp Electronics. The devices will be exclusively available on the Verizon Wireless US network in May, and on the Vodafone network in Germany, Italy, Spain and UK later this year. Device and service pricing have yet to be announced.

“Quick messaging devices are evolving,” says Jeff Orr, mobile devices senior analyst for ABI Research. “Text -only communications environments are shifting to incorporate a rich, efficient multimedia experience. An intuitive user interface that encompasses voice, messaging, images, video, and browsing is essential.”

Designed to maximize efficiency and control in mobile social networking, the KIN slider phones feature high resolution cameras that automatically geo-tag and upload a user’s photos and videos for instant sharing and social network updates.The KIN devices also feature the company’s Zune music player and an FM radio tuner.

Another interesting feature, the KIN Studio, is a device-specific cloud account that will store and backup all the data generated through these handsets. “These devices offer everything a hyper social user needs to instantly document and broadcast every detail of their lives across popular social networks,” notes mobile device analyst Michael Morgan. “Having all of a user’s contacts and pertinent social data stored in a Microsoft vault creates the potential for a very sticky service.”

Questions about these new devices and priority audience remain. Is Windows Phone ready for primetime? Can social media be the centerpiece for the adoption of a mobile device?
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Coming Soon to Home Video…well, that depends on where you rent videos or better yet you can always buy a copy!

Apr 12, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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28 days later…no there is no need for quotes or capital letters, because I’m not referring to the horror film of the same name, but rather this is how long Netflix customers will wait to rent new releases from Warner Bros., Fox, and Universal – the latter two new additions to the list.When Netflix and Redbox signed a deal with Warner Bros. to delay the availability of new releases for 28 days one had the sense this was only the beginning, that more studios would follow suit.Which brings us to the new agreement between Netflix, Fox and Universal, which just happens to come at a seemingly inopportune time considering the imminent release of Avatar onto DVD and Blu-ray (April 22, 2010).


While Netflix is quick to point to the newly expanded streaming library afforded by the deal (and potentially more copies of the “newer” releases following the 28 day window) some customers will likely feel less than enthused by these changes.Netflix is also quick to add that less than 30% of the discs mailed to customers are new releases…but are their customers necessarily demanding older films?Probably not, instead this value is likely a product of the mail delivered video rental model.In other words when a consumer fills out their queue they likely include new releases, but due to limited supply these movies may be unavailable and in its place the company will send the subscriber a film lower on the list, which is often an older film.If this were a pay-per-play model we would certainly not expect 70% of rentals to be older films, at least not from a mainstream video rental company.


Does this mean Blockbuster is gaining an edge?Well if the advertising campaign put forth by Blockbuster for “Sherlock Holmes” was an indication then at the very least the company believes this is a strong differentiator.To this point, in the short term these moves might support Blockbuster’s physical stores and potentially the pay-TV operators who get the movies for their VOD platforms.Over time however Blockbuster will still need to work on converting hybrid pay-per-play Blockbuster/Netflix customers into full Blockbuster only subscribers.If new releases at large become pay-per-play only then Blockbuster could be well positioned to offer the most complete package, as it were – that is subscription (mail order and some in-store) and pay-per-play rentals.The one missing element is a streaming service like Netflix (not pay-per-play), which does a remarkable job accentuating the value of older content.


Another goal of the 28 day delay is to encourage more consumers to buy DVDs/Blu-ray discs at retail, although the efficacy of this plan is less certain.As a consumer if I had little intention of buying a movie for $15-$30 would the limited availability entice me to purchase rather than rent the movie?This analyst is a bit dubious of that connection, but you never know – does “instant” gratification merit the extra expense?Or perhaps consumers may simply see a release date and then tack on 28 additional days.Time will tell, but in the mean time if you are confused about when, where or how you can rent a video take solace in knowing that you are probably not alone and if all else fails you can always give that person a call who seems to know everything about technology, he or she just might know…maybe.
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My iPad Journey - Fully Connected Now

Apr 8, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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During the course of writing these blogs on my experience with the iPad, I said that one of my goals was to hopefully replace my laptop with the new Apple device. As I previously reported, I now have full Outlook capability for email, calendar and contacts on the iPad. I also have VPN connectivity into our company Intranet.



The missing piece of the puzzle was messaging. We are now using Microsoft Communicator and I needed to find an App for that purpose. A quick visit to the iTunes App store found one in a few minutes. It's called iDialog. Originally designed for the iPhone and iTouch, it works fine on the iPad although the appearence on the larger screen is reduced to "iPhone size". This is really not an issue since even with a desktop computer most people don't run mesaging full screen (myself included).



Installation was a snap and there are only three fields of information to enter in the iDialog set-up page.



So now I have a full suite of work related connectivity tools; corporate email, calendar, contacts, VPN and corporate messaging. My laptop can't do any better.



I'm closing in on my primary goal.
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World’s First Android Based TV will come from the People of Lava…Wait Who!?

Apr 7, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Yes the first Internet connected, Android-based TV will come from a Swedish company uniquely named People of Lava – which is also reportedly the first TV to be built in Sweden for several decades (presuming the units are ultimately built in Sweden).Not that other company names aren’t “unique” mind you, but I think in this particular case extra credit is due.The name, as the company explains “signifies the emphasis on the company’s greatest resource – its People, who live the spirit of drive and innovation of the company.”Going beyond the company name, the People of Lava may have also embraced an apropos phrase: “A Window to the World.”For obvious reasons this statement is fitting because, metaphorically speaking, it opens up a “window” to the (virtual) world through social networks, email, potentially voice/video calls, etc; these TVs however might also foreshadow a potential direction for connected TVs.


In most respects the market for connected TVs is just starting to develop (some countries like Japan aside).Many critical issues remain and numerous more wait just in the periphery; issues such as connectivity (Ethernet or Wi-Fi and if we look further down others like G.hn, HomePNA, MoCA, Powerline), system resources and hardware (e.g. CPUs, GPUs, bus speeds, memory, etc), and software (applications, media/web browsers, operating systems, etc).If we distill all of these issues down to a basic, elemental level, a common question begins to emerge: what will it mean to have a connected TV?


This question isn’t meant to have any philosophical undertones nor is it intended to elicit a “duh” response; rather it raises fundamental issues such as usage models, feature sets, and services.In other words will the connected TV begin taking on roles more closely associated with other devices such as computers, phones, game consoles, video players, etc or will it carve its own unique niche?As one might presume expectations indeed run the gamut – helping to explain this wide breadth of opinions one can point to existing models and traits more unique to the TV itself.As TV manufacturers and consumers alike begin to employ verbiage such as apps, widgets, social networking, email, streaming video, etc, in their dialogues comparisons to existing models and platforms are inevitable.While associations to the mobile market (as the case will be with Android) breeds familiarity it also potentially lends itself to unrealistic expectations. It is very likely that the number and variety of applications designed for the TV platform will pale in comparison to the mobile markets.Principally the user interface and functionality between the two platforms are disparate enough to warrant separate software pools – one is a communication device (small screen) first and the other is entertainment centric with a “lean back” approach (the computer often cited as “lean forward”).


Another consideration is the length of service life – TVs in general have a much longer lifespan in the home than mobile or computing devices.With this facet in mind the hardware in TVs will play a more significant role in the user experience a few years down the road.Consumers are generally unaccustomed to obsolescence when it comes to their TVs - even for terrestrial TV viewers converter boxes can support analog sets for analog shut offs.If applications for the TV start to engender generations of connected TVs, this could give rise to a fractionated installed base for a lengthy period of time given the longer lifecycles.This might lead to breakout boxes or greater reliance on other devices like game consoles, Blu-ray players, nettops, or other connected “boxes.”While this would allow consumers to more economically “upgrade” their televisions, the user experience might be less streamlined (e.g. have to switch inputs to access the box).Should this come to fruition the pay-TV operators might have an advantage as they begin adding many of these similar services/features through their STBs.


In any event, People of Lava has taken a significant, albeit relatively small (due to size of the company’s presence) step forward in the connected TV space.The inclusion of a wireless keyboard and pointer/mouse peripherals are also indicative of a forward looking thought process.While a great deal of uncertainty still surrounds the connected TV, in terms of what it will ultimately include or even how consumers will get connected; what is certain however is that connectivity will continue to grow and become an ever increasingly important feature.The People of Lava might very well provide customers a “Window to the (Virtual) World” per their tagline with their connected TV, but this step might also provide us a small glimpse through a “window” looking out towards the future of the connected television as well.
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