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ABI Research Blog (119)

eZuce Stakes Its Claim in the UC Market

Aug 17, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Yesterday, I was briefed by the open source unified communications (UC) solution provider, eZuce. Their openUC is a SIP-based solution that combines a number of key UC functionalities such as voice, video, conferencing, instant messaging, presence and mobility. What is unique about openUC is that all its components, including call control, can be hosted in a data center environment without the need for an on-premise PBX infrastructure, unlike certain comparable solutions out there in the market today. I can see the product’s potential in centralized, private enterprise clouds where it can be coupled with SIP trunking for delivering enterprise-wide UC functionality at significantly lower costs. The TCO model they shared with me showed up to 75 - 85 percent cost savings compared to legacy systems.



Though the product can scale from 200 to 10,000 users, their sweet-spot is really in the mid-market segment. EZuce opened its doors to business only last week, but it has its origins in the SIPfoundry project founded way back in 2004. Initially commercialized by Nortel in response to emerging competition from Microsoft OCS, eZuce already has $100 million in R&D investments and significant installations up and running. So, definitely we are not talking about a product in beta. eZuce is banking on select Nortel, Dell and IBM partners to sell its value proposition among their mid-tier customers.I guess the timing is just right. It is an exciting phase for the UC market, as it evolves from legacy hardware model to software-based architectures. OpenUC, with its promise of deep integration with enterprise business processes and substantial cost savings, does present a compelling business case.
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Qualcomm sets expectation for 1.5 GHz dual-core Snapdragon processor availability

Aug 17, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Qualcomm unveiled its initial dual-core chipset strategy during the COMPUTEX 2010 tradeshow in June. The company announced this week that OEM system customers are expected to receive production-ready shipments of its 1.5 GHz QSD8672 Snapdragon chipset before the end of the year.

The first dual-core chipsets rolling out to customers fall into the MSM8x60 family intended for high-end smartphone handsets. One model provides HSPA+ protocol support while the other enables multi-mode HSPA+/EV-DO Rev. B. Both smartphone chipsets feature two CPU cores running at up to 1.2 GHz.

The top-end mobile processor offers specifications rivaling CULV architectures for low-end laptops. Utilizing a 45nm production process, each of the cores is rated up to 1.5 GHz. The QSD8672 is expected to appear in commercially available devices starting in early 2011.

Mobile devices incorporating dual-core processors should provide enhanced performance for video capture or playback up to 1080p high-definition, along with support for contemporary mobile broadband air interface protocols such as HSPA+, LTE and WiMAX.

The capabilities of mobile chipsets have increased so greatly over the last couple years that system vendors have considered using them for larger form-factor devices. In fact, the smartbook concept emerged from this realization. While it does pose a potential cost savings over systems using the traditional x86 architecture, OS choices for non-handset devices have yet to be widely adopted outside the Windows desktop platform.

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NFC Mobile Commerce? Verizon-AT&T Led Mobile Payments Consortium Faces Challenges and The Potential of Software-based Solutions

Aug 4, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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It just goes to show you how much interest there is in mobile proximity payments (physical location mobile commerce, call it what you’d like) that the scoop Bloomberg had on the not-ready-for-primetime Verizon/AT&T/T-Mobile/Discover/Barclaycard initiative has set off so much media speculation. Yes, this initiative could be very big news for mobile commerce.

But as noted by Digital Transaction News, http://www.digitaltransactions.net/newsstory.cfm?newsid=2599 there are lots of hurdles facing the group, not the least of which is convincing merchants to participate. The biggest issues there – capital costs for point of sale terminals and lower card processing costs. The group does have a pressure point they can exploit if they are willing to charge less than Visa, Mastercard and American Express. In addition, the solution would most likely be a closed loop payment system, meaning consumers could only use the consortium’s “card” and not a debit card, general credit card or even a store credit card, such as Target’s or Best Buy’s. In addition, no NFC platform provider has been identified.

To be fair, the group will most likely address all of this speculation when they are ready to announce something concrete. But as we speculate and point out the barriers, it is also a good time to mention that some other types of proximity payment solutions are gaining ground – specifically software-based smartphone solutions.

Moonha/Quantexx/SAP in Germany, FaceCash in U.S.

Two separate mobile commerce initiatives are being trialed or rolled out that seek to enable consumers to use smartphone apps to make proximity payments that bypass NFC chips and hardware and mobile operators altogether. In both cases, merchants would require no capital outlay if they own a computer and use bar code scanners.

In the U.S., FaceCash/ThinkLink is live and ties a user’s bank account to a bar code. Android and iPhone users can download the FaceCash app. The user then goes online to FaceCash and enters their bank account number, social security number and a photo. They transfer funds into FaceCash and then the money is accessible via the barcode stored in the app. Participating merchants can the barcode to debit the account. Seems pretty easy for the consumer, and the allure for merchants is 50% less processing fee per transaction than the major credit card processors.

In Hamburg, Germany, Quantexx and SAP are readying a trial mobile wallet service called Moonha. Any consumer with a camera-equipped smartphone can download the Moonha app. It works similarly to FaceCash – the consumer creates a Moonha account and ties it to an e-money account. Company officials say they will eventually tie it to credit cards as well. The trial appealing because of the broad merchant availability, as it is with the city government of Hamburg, for everything from transit tickets to city-run venues and food vendors.

There are challenges to both FaceCash and Moonha. Smartphone only, signing on merchants, and maybe the biggest hurdle – convincing consumers why they should choose these mobile options. I think that is particularly important when neither at this point offer credit card as an option. Particularly in the U.S., consumers rely on credit card float. But any NFC option faces these same hurdles to a greater and more expensive degree and involve the mobile operators and mobile OEMs.

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Base Station Infrastructure vendor's 4G focus

Jul 28, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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There has been a lot of talk surrounding WiMAX and LTE lately. Especially around companies that have had network deployments and experience around WiMAX in the past years.



WiMAX vendors that have stuck through the whole thick of problems and issues that have been associated with commercially developing, deploying and expanding a 4G radio access network, are now able to leverage this experience. Infrastructure vendors have planned on supporting WiMAX and LTE. This way, they can keep their WiMAX customers and maintain this market and expand their LTE customers.



In essence, there is a lot of re-useable hardware in a WiMAX base station that can be used for manufacturing an LTE base stations. They are using the same OFDM underlying technology for most of the radio access network. Creating LTE base stations using this experience can quicken the learning curve and help LTE mature faster. A possible dual mode WiMAX/LTE base station is not out of the question either.



With the recent news of NSN acquiring Motorola's telecommunications network equipment business, and after listening to an interesting Q2 earnings conference call from Alvarion today, a couple of things come to mind.



Telecommunications vendors can already have a potential LTE upgrade customer base with their previous and current WiMAX customers. They could offer a smooth transition for those interested in this shift. Alvarion announced plans like this during their conference call. A valid point was made in saying that although not all of their customers will want to move towards LTE, they do have this possibility for them in the future if willing. Service providers would have to consider their customer's equipment if they were to do this change. Moving towards LTE would require changing WiMAX user's CPE, dongles, and/or devices into dual mode LTE/WiMAX or LTE compatible devices.



During the call, Alvarion mentioned letters of intent with a major Indian operator with three of their local partners. They also mentioned their plans on expanding, stocking up inventory and are ready for a major deployment. It was unkown what type of 4G network they were talking about, but not a lot of details were shed on this topic. In any case, whether it be for WiMAX or LTE, business in a high growth market like India would be good news for them.



WiMAX has gotten the short end of the stick in many aspects. From negative press, to deployment issues with country spectrum regulators, to having to trudge through a economic recession. It's good to see that infrastructure vendors, whom drive the market and have an important say in what happens with it, share their decisions and choices in leveraging what they know and have, and offering their customers both options when they decide to go towards 4G.
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Femtocells, Picocells, Small Cells or Compact Base Stations – Another round of taxonomy debates!

Jul 26, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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After our recent whitepaper on Compact base stations there have been a lot of questions on why we didn’t include femtocells within the coverage. The reason was because we see femtocells as low power access points, where the output power is typically 10mW-100mW for indoor residential grade femtocells, and 200-300mW for enterprise grade or metro femtocells. Rural femtocells (currently in development) are known to have output power between 200mW-1W. We would typically classify any femtocell between 200mW-1W as a super femtocell or greater femtocell. The self-configuring, self-provisioning characteristics of femtocells do change as we increase the output power and user capacity and become semi auto-configurable. Some would debate that greater femtocells are indeed picocells.



On the other hand we see compact base stations as a different breed of base stations, albeit cousins of femtocells. Compact base stations use femtocell silicon efficiencies and multi-core chipset platforms to build a base station on a SoC - but are meant to be higher output power base stations (1W and higher). Compact base stations are scalable platforms, which can fit into picocell, microcell or even macrocell form factors. The emergence of compact base station can be traced to the need for multifrequency, multimode, low power consumption, low-cost, pizza-box type base station platforms that can de deployed within different site classifications especially in metro metrozone overlays. The capacity crunch in networks is likely to drive operators to deploy compact base stations as in-fills initially with compact base stations being a part of future network blueprints. Current microcell or macrocell platforms are too bulky or costly to deploy in clusters and in large numbers. Compact base stations are also meant to take advantage of backhaul relay techniques making it easier to deploy in small clusters.



Small cells on the other hand could be the umbrella under which compact base stations (portion of), picocells, microcells, residential, enterprise, rural/metro femtocells exist. We are already seeing vendors like Alcatel Lucent change their marketing message from femtocells to ‘small cells’ covering a wider range of products and deployment types. They have also included features like SON and value-added applications into the small cell base category.



Chipset vendors are also positioning themselves to cater to various segments of the small cell market. picoChip, Percello, Qualcomm, DesignArt, Mindspeed, Texas Instruments, Freescale, Xilinx are all catering to the small cell market although they might be catering to different sub-segments within small cells. The vertical sub-segments include basic residential, SME, large enterprise, metro, rural environments which all have different requirements.



The marketing departments within the chipset vendors and OEMs that are linked to different sub-segments of the market will likely decide where this debate is headed. This reminds me of the debate we had a few years back on whether femtocells overlap with picocells or vice versa. It looks like there might be an added dimension to this debate with the inclusion of compact base stations and small cells.



There are still questions on what is included within small cells. Do Outdoor DAS systems count as small cells? Or are small cells only meant to include non-distributed systems?



Let the debates begin!



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Amazon’s $1 Billion Mobile Commerce Figure: Not Apples to Oranges

Jul 23, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Yesterday Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos said in their earnings call that “In the last 12 months customers around the world have ordered more than $1 billion of products from Amazon using a mobile device.”

This is not the breakthrough point you might think it is for mobile commerce.

There is no doubt that $1 billion in sales from a single company in mobile commerce is a significant number.eBay reported that in 2009, they had $660 million in sales attributed to mobile commerce, and they believe they will jump to $1.2 billion in 2010. These numbers reflect the sale of physical goods sold by eBay. But the Amazon number is a different story. The problem with the Amazon number is it includes sales of digital books purchased via the Kindle ereader.While this is technically mobile commerce in that a good or service was bought via a mobile device, it might need to be segmented out from other mobile commerce.Why?To give a clearer picture of mobile commerce.

The term mobile commerce is vague and can cover a lot of different areas.ABI Research sees mobile commerce as the broadest term for usingcertain mobile devices to facilitate the purchase of a physical or digital goods and services, requiring specialized software or hardware.

So first you have to define mobile devices requiring specialized software or hardware.Are laptops or netbooks with mobile connectivity (not Wi-Fi, but connectivity to WWAN –mobile networks) considered mobile devices in this context?What about media tablets like IPad, ereaders?Generally, I do not count commerce conducted with these devices as part of mobile commerce.The reason is because these devices have adequate processing power, memory, browser capability, screen size and resolution to conduct regular e-commerce. Consumers do not require any special software to make a purchase, nor do retailers need to develop any specialized capabilities.On the other hand, mobile handsets do not, and require specialized software for consumer s and a separate approach by retailers to enable purchases. Kindle and other ereaders do require specialized software and hardware to enable a purchase, so they should be counted.But let’s separate out ereader content sales from the other category – mobile online shopping – so we can have an accurate picture for the marketplace.
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Apple takes page from the Tiger Woods and Lindsay Lohan scandal playbook over iPhone 4 antenna woes

Jul 16, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Some will look at Apple’s response today to well-publicized concerns over antenna design in the new iPhone 4G as tempering an overblown non-issue. Others will see it as a company with a relatively unblemished track record in product launches taking the “rock star” approach and pointing fingers at the rest of the mobile device industry. Is the company still an innovator or has it become relegated to merely part of the flock now?


Apple chief Steve Jobs is quoted today as saying, “0.55% of all iPhone customers have called AppleCare with an antenna issue,” and, “So this doesn't really jive with what you read about this problem.” Is the concern about all iPhones? No. Only the iPhone 4. Should anyone expect 3+ million people with iPhone 4 worldwide to call AppleCare if virtually every media outlet is reporting a widespread trend? No. How many sticking accelerator pedals reports did it take Toyota to issue a voluntary recall on its Prius vehicle line in the US? Not very many for a similarly “rare” occurring issue!


Should Apple be treated like other mobile device vendors when the company prides itself on being different and unique? If antenna signal strength changes are a common industry issue when gripping a smartphone (as Apple reported from its own in-house testing of RIM, HTC and Samsung, among others), why hasn’t Apple used its 18 Ph.D. scientists and engineers, and $100 million investment to provide a better experience that surpasses the rest of the industry? This is the expectation that Apple has created.


The unfortunate analogy to Apple’s dilemma is the same as athletic superstars and scandalous celebrities. These individuals and businesses have elevated themselves to “rock star” status and will not be able to remain on that pedestal forever; in the eyes of the media or fans of the brand.


The image that each (Tiger Woods, Lindsay Lohan, and Apple, for example) has built requires superhuman performance. Any slip-ups (whether real or perceived) throw their heroics into question. Should the media and consumers be held responsible for these false expectations of Apple? No, the company’s excellent marketing and branding campaigns have created it.


While pleased that Apple made a public response to concerns over iPhone 4 performance, they could have taken the “high road” and not tried throwing the mobile handset industry “under the bus” in the process. Instead, the company should have admitted that the fourth generation handset has a problem and announced plans to take the same course of action that celebrities and athletes alike pursue these days. Enter rehab!


Bottom Line:

Is this the beginning of the end for Apple? No.

Does it give Apple’s track record a black eye? Absolutely.
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Huawei and ZTE may lose out on the India 4G Market

Jul 15, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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If this report is true and made official, then the Indian government will ban 25 Chinese firms and one Israeli firm from doing business in India. This includes Huawei and ZTE. This is happening just as the 4G market is about to explode in India, with service providers with new spectrum planning WiMAX, LTE, and potential transitions from WiMAX TDD to LTE TDD. Major mobile infrastructure companies such as Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Huawei, Motorola, NEC, Nokia Siemens Networks, Samsung, and ZTE are expected to fiercely compete for business in India, as are other very important smaller 4G companies such as Alvarion, Aviat, and many others.





Supposedly, security agencies in India were able to prove that Chinese companies' equipment and software had "black boxes, malware, trap doors, remote or hidden attack facilities through computerised command and control, rendering Indian telecom networks vulnerable.” So if this report is true, this will be bad news for Huawei and ZTE since they will lose out on a very important growth market. And this would be very positive news for all the other companies looking to sell 4G mobile network equipment in India.
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Android Applications: If you can’t find the right one, now make it yourself

Jul 12, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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While the Android Market and its selection of apps has grown steadily and far outpaced the rest of the challenger’s to the iTunes App Store, it still trails the iPhone’s store’s app count by more than half. Starting this week, Google is taking steps to correct that mismatch in available apps with the launch of ‘App Inventor for Android’.

The App Inventor is a do it yourself application design suite, downloadable by anyone that allows those without any programming or development experience to create rich applications for the Android Platform and then download the same to their Android handsets. The tool gives users a drag and drop easy-to-use interface with rich functionality-allowing applications to access core phone services such as text messaging and GPS.

The website for download also provides tutorials to get you started, and claims beta-testing has been done over the past year with users ranging from nursing students to sixth graders. Google reckons that users know best what kind of applications they need on the phone, and is more than willing to give them the tools to create the same.

What remains to be seen is if these user generated applications will make their way back on to the Android Market for all to download. Whilst this could be a great move in terms of boosting the availability of applications, it may also clutter the market with sub-standard applications of dubious utility.
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iAd Launch Feels More Like a First Step – But Don’t be Fooled, New Platform Has Great Potential

Jul 1, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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So, here it is. Launch day for the iAd mobile ad platform from Apple. It’s going to be a big deal…just not today.

Some of the initial advertisers will not have campaigns ready for several months, according to AdAge. So this won’t be anything like the launch of a new iPhone model. It’s a first step. But with $60 million of inventory sold, iAd generates plenty of heat.

Here’s what a couple of experienced mobile advertising people told me they expect from the new ad network:



  • “iAd pushes mobile advertising into a new realm. For the first time, for good reason or not, advertisers are excited about being associated with mobile…and actually putting budget behind those efforts to prove it,” says Ben Gaddis, director of mobile and emerging media for T3.



  • “iAd is a closed ecosystem, thus limiting distribution,” says Amielle Lake, CEO of Tagga Media.



This mix of enthusiasm and criticism reflects the views of many in the mobile ad world. Some welcome the addition of a powerful new player, while others bristle at the fact that it is control-freak Apple in charge.

New Biz for Apple

Mobile advertising is a new business for Apple. Even though the company benefits from the capable people it acquired in the Quattro Wireless deal, Apple itself treads new ground as the seller of advertising inventory. It will take some time for Apple to sort things out.

Assuming the first wave of advertisers get enough of the ROI they’re looking for and they come back for more, then this will turn out to be a big win for Apple, and its ad clients. But hurdles could impede the road ahead – especially an apparent probe by theFTC.

Assuming that probe doesn’t derail things, I expect the rest of this year to be full of buzz and hype around iAd. But we won’t know all that much until the end of the year – once enough advertisers have completed campaigns and crunched the data.

The real impact comes in 2011. That’s when budgets bust open and iAd takes flight. But this won’t be a slam-dunk. Alternative mobile ad networks already offer the type of “rich-media” creative elements Apple has touted, and there will be plenty of competition for ad dollars. Nonetheless, Apple’s involvement will lift mobile advertising to a new level.

For now, Apple rides a high horse, with hardware, software and now advertising. There is no magic here. It out-innovates nearly all of its competitors, and it knows marketing. As Jobs has said, the real test is if customers like what the company produces. They do at this moment, and the companyreceives a wide pass to get things right, even in spite of its flaws. The same will happen in mobile advertising…as long as both consumers and advertisers remain delighted – and regulators don’t interfere too much.
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