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Why Today's WiMAX and LTE Are 4G Technologies

Oct 21, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​What is 4G?

This is a question that I have discussed with perhaps hundreds (literally) of people throughout the mobile wireless industry over the last 5 years or so. ABI Research considers today's WiMAX (802.16e) and LTE technologies to be 4G. Some people in the industry agree with us on this, and others disagree. Now that the ITU has officially accepted 802.16m and LTE-Advanced as IMT-Advanced technologies, this issue has come up again. What makes it more confusing is that where the ITU mostly referred to IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced in the past, they are including "3G" and "4G" with these groupings, respectively. WiMAX and LTE, in ABI Research's opinion, are still 4G technologies. Here is why:

Designation of technology generations (1G through 4G) are used to describe different types of air interfaces. They are grouped like this:

  • 1G - analog, frequency division
  • 2G - shift to digital, frequency + time division [TDMA]
  • 3G - frequency + code division [CDMA]
  • 4G - orthogonal frequency division [OFDMA] (and offshoots of OFDMA)
It has been argued that some of the criteria to meet IMT-2000 or IMT-Advanced are arbitrary, such as the data rate - why 100 Mbps and not 107 Mbps or 39 Mbps? It's just a number - a number that is necessary to set a threshhold to meet a goal, but it does not change what the technology fundamentally is.

Within 2G, technologies in a family are compatible. The latest iterations of EDGE can fall back to older iterations of EDGE, back to GPRS, and even back to GSM. Within 3G, it is the same. The most complex version of HSPA+ can fall back to a very simple and slower version of HSPA+, back to HSPA, back to HSDPA, and even back to WCDMA. EV-DO Rev B can fall back to Rev A and back to Rev 0. (It can even fall back to CDMA 2000 1x, because it is based on CDMA.) All 2G air interfaces are based off of a form of TDMA. All 3G air interfaces are based on a form of CDMA. WiMAX and LTE are not based on CDMA, but rather OFDMA.

Of course, WiMAX and LTE do not meet IMT-Advanced specifications. WiMAX 2 (802.16m) and LTE-Advanced, however, do meet IMT-Advanced specifications. 802.16m can fall back to 802.16e, and LTE-Advanced can fall back to LTE. So if the IMT-Advanced-compliant versions are 4G, then today's WiMAX and LTE technologies surely must be 4G technologies as well, because they are forward and backwards compatible. A 4G technology cannot fall back to a 3G technology - that is impossible.

As a background, it was the WiMAX Forum who lobbied hard to get WiMAX (802.16e) accepted as an IMT-2000 technology. It is not because the WiMAX Forum thought it was also a 3G technology. It has to do with a different reason - spectrum. The WiMAX Forum wanted the possibility and potential of WiMAX to have access to IMT-2000-designated spectrum. The 3GPP pushed for LTE to be accepted as an IMT-2000 technology as well.

Some people will say that dual-carrier HSPA+ with 64 QAM with MIMO can go faster than today's initial WiMAX technologies. Yes, they can. But it is not just about speed, but about the combination of speed, latency, capacity, and cost/MB. There is where WiMAX and LTE are different. More importantly, it is more about the fundamental radio technology being used.

Some people describe 1G through 4G as marketing terms. They are certainly used as marketing terms because they are easier to grasp than "IMT-2000" or "IEEE 802.16e." But they are more than just marketing terms, because engineers and product managers use "3G" and "4G" as well, since they are shorter to say and align very well with the fundamental technologies behind them.

WiMAX and LTE are based on OFDMA and are something completely different from the 3G technologies on the market. They have room for improvement in their current form, but as their IMT-Advanced versions develop and come to market, today's 4G technologies will not be left stranded because they will be compatible with the coming IMT-Advanced-compliant 4G technologies.
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Cheering for Hulu

Oct 21, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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I cut the cord around 2004 when I moved from LA to SF – we had lived in apartment complexes where the cable was heavily subsidized and was really the only option. We elected to use Netflix to catch up on a lot of movie’s we’d missed, watch TV shows from start to end, etc. There are a few reasons I really wish I had cable, notably: Food TV, the Tour de France, and watching more MLB (luckily, the post-season is on Fox. Go Giant’s!) I’ve recently started to use Hulu to watch a few shows and be a little more current than Netflix allows – mostly shows I wouldn’t admit I watch (OK, I had a crush on Ali – the Bachelorette). I’m eager for the release of Hulu Plus on my Sony Blu-ray player (coming this fall), so that I can fork over $10 per month to watch Hulu content in my Living Room instead of my study (OK – I can do it with a laptop now).

I absolutely understand that the networks – who own the content – want Hulu revenue to supplement (or replace in full measure) their broadcast revenue. While we watch less ads on Hulu than broadcast TV (in minutes) those ads are much more targeted – they are delivered based on what Hulu (and any search partners) know about us. They should ultimately be able to achieve higher bids per impression, and similar revenue per airing. Hulu also has interactive ads that connect you to more information about product and services, merging impression ads with click-through ads.
Hulu is the networks’ extension onto the internet, and is often forced to push their defensive tactics to the customers. They recently did so by enforcing a black-out of Fox content to Cablevision customers – extending the cable carriage dispute onto the internet. I’m glad they acknowledged their distaste for the matter: “Unfortunately, we were put in a position of needing to block Fox content on Hulu in order to remain neutral during contract negotiations between Fox and Cablevision.” Also – it appears to have been a short-lived action, given the inability of Hulu (Fox) to distinguish between Cablevision Cable customers and Cablevision Internet customers.
The News Corp (Fox) action was anti-competitive. These customers can watch the signals over the air with an HD antenna – why should the internet be different? More avenues of content means more competition – which is better for consumers. Period. Hulu, from now on, please stand up for your customers a little more against your big daddy (News Corp / Fox).
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Who Wins with Limited Access Mobile Broadband Plans - Wi-Fi

Oct 21, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Wi-Fi equipment growth continues on a healthy pace in part due to businesses and customers purchasing the recently (relatively) approved IEEE 802.11n standard. Another driver includes more devices with embedded Wi-Fi including smartphones, netbooks and media tablets. ABI Research projects that by 2015, 94% of all smartphones will have Wi-Fi radios. Nearly 100% of all new netbooks and media tablets include Wi-Fi. Businesses continue to deploy the technology with healthcare and education the top two industries for Wi-Fi access point shipments.

But another driver which has received little fanfare for promoting Wi-Fi is the recent shift by many operators to offer limited access broadband data plans. These plans were introduced to help curb the rapid growth of mobile data traffic on cellular 3G networks. For customers on these plans, they will now be more cognizant of available Wi-Fi access rather than simply connecting only on cellular via an unlimited data plan.

This may seem like a minor addition to the many drivers supporting Wi-Fi. But it is important because cellular networks continue to improve. 4G is the latest iteration and offers average speeds on par with 802.11 b/g. IT managers now consider 4G a viable alternative/addition to Wi-Fi. Because cellular is a WAN technology, its advantage is customers have to think less if at all about where they are for access. However now with limited access mobile broadband plans, cellular is notthe panacea -customersneed to think about how much they use.

Forward thinking Wi-Fi vendors such as Cisco know that they need to move beyond a Wi-Fi only world particularly now with 4G networks imminent. While this is a good strategy since Wi-Fi will likely never be a truly WAN technology, the capacity crunch on cellular networks which ushered in limited access mobile broadband plans arrests the advances cellular was making on Wi-Fi. Not many Wi-Fi equipment vendors talk about this but they should be jumping for joy...and thanking the operators.

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Apple Adds AT&T, Verizon Wireless, and Sam's Club retail stores to US iPad distribution

Oct 14, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today, Apple announced that its iPad media tablet products would be available at AT&T and Verizon Wireless retail stores later this month. As noted in an ABI Researchblog posting earlier this week , Apple has been planning additional retail exposure for its first-generation media tablet in preparation for the US holiday buying season. Which models will be available from what venues?
ABI Research has assembled the following table detailing the models, pricing and availability from a range of US retail and e-commerce sites.
Vendor
16GB
Wi-Fi
16GB
Wi-Fi/3G
32GB
Wi-Fi
32GB
Wi-Fi/3G
64GB
Wi-Fi
64GB
Wi-Fi/3G
Amazon.com
$520.50 +
$669.99 +
$656.00 +
$774.99 +
$718.00 +
$892.00 +
Apple Store, Apple.com
$499.00
$629.00
$599.00
$729.00
$699.00
$829.00
AT&T Retail
$629.00 starting Oct 28
$729.00 starting Oct 28
$829.00 starting Oct 28
Best Buy Retail, BestBuy.com
$499.99
In-Store Only
$629.99
In-Store Only
$599.99
In-Store Only
$729.99
In-Store Only
$699.99
In-Store Only
$829.99
In-Store Only
Target Retail, Target.com
$499.99
In-Store Only
$629.99
In-Store Only
$599.99
In-Store Only
$729.99
In-Store Only
$699.99
In-Store Only
$829.99
In-Store Only
Verizon Wireless Retail
$629.99
Bundled with MiFi 2200 starting Oct 28
$729.99
Bundled with MiFi 2200 starting Oct 28
$829.99
Bundled with MiFi 2200 starting Oct 28
Wal-Mart Retail, Walmart.com
$499.00 online + retail by mid-Nov
$629.00 online + retail by mid-Nov
$599.00 online + retail by mid-Nov
$729.00 online + retail by mid-Nov
$699.00 online + retail by mid-Nov
$829.00 online + retail by mid-Nov
Source: ABI Research
Sam’s Club, a warehouse store chain and division of Wal-Mart Stores, announced plans to offer the iPad during an investor meeting this week. Sam’s Club operates at more than 500 US locations. No estimate of availability or product mix was provided.
What other national retailers remain sans iPad? Warehouse club competitor Costco (417 US stores) and electronics chain RadioShack (6,000 company and dealer-owned stores) are two of the largest national retailers not announcing deals with Apple so far.
Not much variation in pricing (less than $1 in most cases) can be found across most of the offers and no retail partners are undercutting the Apple-direct price.
The greatest variance is for bundles of the three Wi-Fi models paired with Novatel’s MiFi router from Verizon Wireless. This is Verizon’s first foray into a selling relationship with Apple (but well rumored not to be its only). VZW prices for the duo match those of AT&T’s 3G iPad price. Each company has a range of 3G service plans tiered by monthly data consumption caps.
ABI Research predicts the Verizon Wireless hardware bundle will be more attractive than the AT&T iPad-only deal, especially to multi-device owners that can also connect laptops, netbooks, gaming handhelds, and other Wi-Fi enabled devices to the MiFi router while on-the-go. The marketing of the combo is also expected to attract current iPad Wi-Fi owners looking to take the iPad to more places where Wi-Fi access may not be available.
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Broadcom Slingshots Into 4G Chipsets Through Beceem Acquisition

Oct 14, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​Broadcom Corporation announced its plans to acquire Beceem Communications for $316 million, which is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2011. Broadcom has been quiet around 4G, but of course has been long planning and even engineering 4G solutions. This has been rumored to include WiMAX in case the market were to grow large enough for Broadcom's tastes.

This acquisition has been primarly around LTE, of course, but the WiMAX side of Beceem's business is viewed by Broadcom as a nice extra. Beceem's coming WiMAX/LTE chipsets were even more interesting to Broadcom, as they will allow Broadcom to add a "snap-on" solution to its existing WWAN and wireless connectivity chipsets. The fact that Beceem was starting to make decent revenues did not hurt its attractiveness, but one of the primary deciding factors in the acquisition was the architecture in Beceem's 4G chipset design. More detail around this architecture and the potential business this opens up for Broadcom will be provided in an upcoming ABI Insight.


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Apple Preps US Channels for iPad Holiday Buying and Start of Competition

Oct 12, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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With Walmart.com adding Apple iPad to its e-commerce offering immediately and Wal-Mart retailers stocking devices in the coming weeks, Apple is working furiously to make its media tablet product available in advance of holiday 2010 purchasing for US consumers. US consumer electronics retailer Best Buy along with mass retail chain Target are already stocking the iPad. Recently, Amazon.com also began listing the iPad on its e-commerce website.

In the first ninety days of shipments, the average selling price of iPad exceeded $650, a clear luxury item for most consumers worldwide. With Wal-Mart not gaining any special pricing to attract consumers, the bet has to be on mere presence in more places. This strategy could draw shoppers looking for gift-giving ideas or create frustration --and potentially a switch to a competitive offering --if limited quantities are available at each store. Samsung recently announced distribution agreements with the four largest US mobile network operators to sell the company’s Galaxy Tab media tablet before the end of this year; a feat no handset, PC OEM, or CE device vendor has pulled off before with the carrier channel.

Next week, Apple is expected to reveal revenue and shipment volumes for its latest financial quarter. While it was quick to announce shipments of the first and third million iPad units, the company has remained quiet since July aboutmedia tabletprogress. Does this silence mean sales have slowed as early adopters considering iPadwere fulfilled andshowing off the device to friends, or is Apple saving some thunder to impress the financial community during October?

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FLO TV: RIP

Oct 7, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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So it’s been made official, Qualcomm is shuttering the direct to consumer FLO TV service. Good. That means the company can move on to bigger and better things.
Qualcomm is a savvy company, but the whole idea of mobile TV in the U.S. has been shaky since the start and it doesn’t seem like a good fit for most companies, let alone Qualcomm. In a way it reminds me of the Iridium disaster, but with less hype. In both instances, I think the core issue was misguided use case.
What is the compelling use case for mobile TV in the United States? Would it work for common smartphones, netbooks or media tablets? Mobile handsets will never have enough real estate to make those devices anything other than an option of last resort. Media tablets, netbooks and connected laptops make more sense, but will there be enough addressable market to support a positive business case? And when would consumers choose to watch TV on these devices over larger, cheaper, higher resolution TVs? At the airport? At your kid’s soccer game? Are consumers that desperate? Then there’s the issue of content. Suppliers have struggled with providing the same content at the same time as cable and broadcast, instead offering new lineups or DVR-like services.
It is estimated that Qualcomm has invested around $800 million in FLO, $683 million of that in the spectrum. They aren’t going to lose all of that money. Qualcomm is rethinking what they can do with that spectrum, and have said they are exploring the potential to offer a more general data delivery platform for connected devices, most likely through the established mobile operators. The frequencies are separate from those which the mobile networks use, so the platform could provide bandwidth congestion relief. While it’s too early to say definitively whether this will work, it sounds like a better idea.

So rest in peace, FLO. On to bigger and better things.
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Verizon LTE Announcement at CTIA – All Competitive Positioning

Oct 6, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Verizon made an announcement today of their LTE plans. Note it is their plans and not any definitive LTE launch dates. In fact there was very little information announced on the devices, applications and pricing. Here is what they did say:
- Launch in 38 markets covering 110 million people by end of year
- Launch in more than 60 commercial airports by end of year
- Initial devices offered at launch would be USB dongles/modems
- More details on partnerships, devices and applications announced at CES 2011
- Working with rural operators to extend LTE coverage beyond Verizon LTE network
- Devices on LTE network will be MIMO capable at launch date
- Plan to cover 200 million pops through 2012 and 285 million pops covered by end of 2013
- Verizon expects 4G LTE average data rates in real-world loaded network environments to be 5 to 12 megabits per second (Mbps) on the downlink and 2 to 5 Mbps on the uplink.
While the press may not be happy with this “prelaunch announcement” there is value for Verizon. With an update announcement, they provide customers who are considering Verizon for 4G services information to keep them with Verizon or to switch to Verizon from a competitor. With this announcement, they also hear from the market what customers and suppliers might be saying to help hone their marketing message.
I did ask about their in-building wireless plans and the response was that 700 MHz will provide great in-building coverage. Given they are providing airport terminal coverage, in-building wireless is important. They also noted that cell-edge coverage on LTE is very good so LTE helps them maximize coverage inside buildings using the macronetwork. Understanding that 4G in-building coverage will occur through upgrades of DAS networks and connected base stations, it is assumed that Verizon will ensure their messaging of 4G includes an understanding that the 3G fallback could be quite common depending on location. They need to thank Sprint for greasing the skids with this message.

Overall the announcement was non-eventful but certainly the right competitive move for Verizon.
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Cisco Consumer Telepresence

Oct 6, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today Cisco formally announced its consumer targeted telepresence product, named umi. The package, priced at US$ 599, includes a camera, set-top box and a remote. In addition, customers will need to pay a US$ 24.99 monthly service fee. As part of the monthly service fee consumers are assigned a phone number, access to unlimited video calling, video voicemail, video uploads to social networking sites, and profile/call management.


Cisco’s solution is compatible with Google Chat on the PC so early adopters will have a wider range of people to communicate with. Even with Google Chat compatibility Cisco’s consumer TP product will face some hurdles, all of which Cisco is prepared to face head-on, citing its commitment to the long haul.


With a relatively high price point and perhaps more troublesome the monthly fee, the initial reception by consumers could very well be mixed. Cisco has taken the high-end/quality approach to video conferencing/chat and considering the price and economic climate it might seem divergent with current consumer behavior and preferences. In addition to get the full experience both parties must have Cisco’s umi product installed at their respective locations which ostensibly doubles the price of admission. There are also the technology requirements – the consumer must have a broadband connection which supports a minimum upstream speed of 1.5 Mbps for 720p or 3.5 Mbps for 1080p. So why is Cisco releasing a product aimed at the high end, when a number of far less expensive alternatives exist (e.g. webcams/Skype/Google Chat and the upcoming Microsoft Kinect)?


For the answer to have its full depth one must first experience Cisco’s enterprise telepresence solution – without this experiential cue it is far too easy to simply say “it would be nice but not for the money.” Experiencing Cisco’s enterprise telepresence firsthand, for the first time, is truly unique and for lack of better words quite spectacular. You wouldn’t think so, but seeing the telepresence participants “sitting across” from the virtual conference table has the uncanny ability to bend one’s perceptions of “reality” and forces you to remind yourself that some of the meeting participants are virtual. The experience really does have the same impact and effect as meeting someone in person.


Granted, this implementation is not an enterprise installment where Cisco controls every facet of the viewing experience (from the lighting to the placement of equipment and even color of the room) but if umi can capture part of that experience there is strong reason to believe this product, despite the price and monthly fee, will resonate with consumers. In order for this to happen though retailers and service providers alike will have to demonstrate or convince consumers of the intrinsic value with quality of experience (right now Verizon and Best Buy/Magnolia are distribution partners along with ad campaign featuring Ellen Page, mall demonstrations, and “The Oprah Winfrey Show”).


At the end of the day umi promises to make the distances that separate us from friends and family that much “shorter.” Yes we have social networking, phones, text messages, etc. but through it all there is a lack of intimacy inherent with all of these technologies and while video chat will continue to grow as a communications channel (e.g. growth amongst mobile/portable devices supporting this feature) it too often fails to create the same experience of “being there.” If Cisco can emulate this personal element and live up to its branding as the “human network” then perhaps the price won’t seem as high – after all putting a price on seeing your loved ones whenever you want is hard to do, and to some this ability would be “priceless.” We also have to remain cognizant that this is the first generation of products and as subsequent generations or units come out at lower price points the number of users will grow, adding value to the TP network. We will see when pre-orders take place reportedly on October 6 th from umi.cisco.com and October 18 th from Best Buy – availability to consumers is expected on November 14 th in Best Buy/Magnolia Home Theater stores and Cisco’s umi website.


Link to Cisco’s Press Release: http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2010/prod_100610.html

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Sony Google TV remote won’t allow you to eat popcorn!

Oct 6, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Yesterday, ABC News showed a prototype of a Sony Google TV remote control. The prototype is as clunky as a label-printer. It has a full Qwerty keyboard and a game controller at the top. It looks like it will be difficult to use with one hand, making it hard to use while holding a beer during the ballgame, or eating popcorn during a movie. On the plus side, it looks like it will be very efficient for typing with two thumbs – something that will be nice as users search for specific internet content, or type a long URL to see a friend’s latest vacation pictures based on a website (rather than an installed App).

Google TV platforms should also all support using any smartphone as a remote control – including multiple remote controls working on a single console – therefore, this two handed remote could be one of two people use to control the system. Some the other newly released Smart TV remotes take more cues from Smartphones. The TiVo Slide Remote looks like a traditional remote on the top, with a slide out Qwerty keyboard, a second navigation wheel and a full numeric keypad underneath. Phillips Home Control has shown a dual sided, flat remote that looks elegant but may not have enough tactile, color or shape cues to be used in the dark. The Motorola NYXboard appears slimmer than the Sony remote and has less gaming capability, but will suffer some of the same problems.

Based on the controller design – it is also clear that Sony sees gaming on the TV as an important driver. Similar to other gaming controllers, the two directional pads are used for gaming -- the one on the left is often for navigating (e.g. walking) while the other one is often directional (e.g. looking around or adjusting the camera angle). It wouldn't surprise us if there are triggers behind the controller as well. This push to gaming on the TV echoes some news at Intel Developer’s Forum earlier this month – notably, TransGaming announced a GameTreeTV platform that will port many existing titles to the Intel Smart TV platform. Note that the initial announcement appears more designed for MeeGo or another Linux variant, and may take some additional work for the Google TV platform.

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