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2010 mHealth Summit Recap

Nov 11, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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ABI Research attended the second annual 2010 mHealth Summit in Washington DC this past week, from November 8 through November 10. The conference drew attendees from 44 countries and exhibiting companies ranging from small startups (e.g. Telcare) to large established technology vendors (e.g. Qualcomm). There was also an interesting mix of the expected technology folks, along with policy makers, healthcare researchers, and care providers/NGOs.

What was clear from the conference that while “mHealth” is still a fuzzy term – many of the panels and presentations wrestled with just what the term encompassed – most of the attendees were focused on handset-based healthcare applications and the use of text messaging to convey health information and establish connections between patients and care-givers. This underscored to us the very nascent nature of the embedded cellular (M2M) healthcare technology market. While cellular connectivity embedded into various forms of gateways and healthcare devices were on display at the show, they were few and far between, and clearly an afterthought at a conference that regards mobile = handset. It will be interesting to see if/how this changes at future Summits.

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INRIX launches XD Traffic: Should TomTom, NAVTEQ, or MILE Traffic and Travel be Worried?

Nov 8, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Seattle-based INRIX chose Europe’s main Telematics conference taking place in Munich, Germanyon November 3/4 to unveil its latest traffic offer under the slightly cheesy XD label, clearly targeting TomTom’s flagship HD Traffic solution.

XD Traffic offers premium real-time and predictive traffic service optimized for the delivery of next generation connected navigation and driver services applications in the car, on mobile devices and online and will be available in Europe and the US in 20 markets. It will be used by Ford in SYNC-equipped vehicles from 2011. Main features and benefits include Busy Commuter (faster routes, best time to leave, travel time and ETA), speed predictions and traffic forecasts based on weather conditions, school schedules and local events, Traffic Ahead, Friend Ahead (social network integration), high accuracy (speed errors smaller than 5 mph 90 % of the time), TPEG Connect, and improved coverage.
While XD Traffic seems to improve on all major areas, the great marketing surrounding it does however not quite manage to shake off lingering doubts about INRIX’s access to large amounts of probe data. While competitors TomTom (Vodafone mobile phone users / connected Live PNDs) and NAVTEQ (Nokia Maps navigation users) are able to leverage tens of millions of probes, INRIX’s probe resources are much more limited, being based on partnerships with fleets and regional automobile clubs as well as its own traffic smartphone applications. However, INRIX at least partially compensates this handicap of limited real-time data densities with advanced predictive traffic modelling and technologies such as SpeedWaves to improve accuracy of traffic speeds on secondary roads.

With competitors TomTom (Renault, Fiat), NAVTEQ, and MILE Traffic and Travel (BMW) all recently having announced major wins in the lucrative car OEM market, INRIX had to react. While XD Traffic integrates some impressive traffic technology, its major strength resides in state of the art marketing which will keep INRIX’s (European) competitors on their toes for quite some time.
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Why Apple and Google are Talking to BOKU

Nov 5, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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There are reports that both Apple and Google have had discussions with mobile payments player BOKU. BOKU, along with several other players, such as Zong, Danal (and their U.S. subsidiary BilltoMobile), Surfpin, MoPay, Billing Revolution and Fortumo are providing consumers with the option to pay for virtual goods bought in MMOGs ( Massively Multiplayer Online Games) like World of Warcraft and increasingly, social games like Farmville offered through social networks like Facebook by placing the charge on their mobile bill or in the case of prepaid, debited against their balance. These mobile payment companies are essentially aggregators, connecting mobile carriers and the broad range of digital content merchants who offer virtual goods. It’s big business – in my forecasts I have projected that global sales of virtual goods will reach $26 billion in 2015, with more than $10 billion of that paid via mobile. Of that $10 billion, more than 70% will come from the Asia Pacific region.

So by acquiring BOKU are Apple and Google interested in becoming a mediator of virtual goods? Perhaps to an extent, but I think it runs much deeper than that. I think the primary driver for both Apple and Google in this case is to expand their billing options past credit cards or PayPal for their app stores. The main attraction of BOKU is the carrier billing portion, the virtual goods business is simply gravy.
Apple drivers

BOKU will help Apple sell their devices to a broader global audience. Today, ITunes accounts must be associated with a credit card. And while Apple has more than 160 million cards on file, Apple is still missing a huge addressable market of individuals who don’t have a credit card or bank account. In most countries, youth under the age of 21 are a primary target for mobile apps and virtual goods, yet most have neither a credit card or bank account but do have a mobile phone. And while credit card usage is on the rise globally, credit card penetration is higher than mobile phone penetration in only six countries -- U.S., Taiwan, Canada, U.K., Norway and South Korea. Being able to make an app purchase through carrier billing, not only for an iPhone, but for an iTouch or iPad as well, greatly enhances the appeal of these devices to consumers in the global market.

Google drivers

BOKU will help boost a substandard Android Marketplace payment mechanism, which if fixed, will help keep app developers on board and help increase Android marketshare. Today, buying apps through the Android Marketplace is slower than Apple’s App Store. Both Google Checkout and PayPal require minimal but nonetheless more steps than the App Store. In July, Google announced they would begin implementing carrier billing, but acquiring BOKU would provide a nearly immediate solution compared to Google organically setting up carrier billing.

I think Apple has more urgency in this situation. Look for Apple to keep the pressure on, and don’t be surprised if they aren’t talking with Zong, Surfpin, MoPay, Billing Revolution and Fortumo as well, since all of them have sufficient carrier reach. Google might be less motivated to look elsewhere, as Zong and Billing Revolution have developed a work around for Android developers (but that’s another story).​

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Looking at the 4G Issue as Marketing vs ITU Definition Misses the Mark

Nov 4, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​Almost everyone is casting the debate around 4G's definition as having just two sides. One side is a pure marketing side uses 4G as a label to sell services. The other side hinges on the ITU's definition of IMT-Advanced. Since the ITU is equating IMT-Advanced to 4G, those going by ITU's definition can now point to WiMAX (802.16e) and LTE as not being 4G. By that logic, Sprint's WIMAX network and Verizon's LTE network are "technically not 4G." Based on this, one can only conclude that they are 3G. This leaves the door open for T-Mobile USA to say that their network is a 4G network too.

There is a third side here that is being ignored by most people. The only reason there is this much confusion is because instead of the ITU defining IMT-Advanced with all of its speed and latency requirements, they have in fact equated IMT-Advanced with 4G. But all logic fails here. As I said in an earlier post, 1G = analog, 2G = TDMA, 3G = CDMA, and 4G = OFDMA. It is really that simple. Today's 3G technologies are all based on 3G. OFDMA is a completely new technology compared to 3G technologies. What comes after 3? 4 does. OFDMA technologies are the 4th generation of WWAN air interfaces.

So does that mean people will call WiMAX 2 (802.16m) and LTE-Advanced 5G? No. These are also OFDMA-based technologies. I've always disliked the use of decimals in these generations, but if you are going to used that to make it easier to understand, then the IMT-Advanced versions of these technologies will be referred to as 4.5G.

All these WiMAX and LTE technologes are 4G. It's easy to prove. Just as 3G technologies could fall back to their slower versions, these 4G technologies will do the same. EV-DO Rev B can fall back to slower versions, such as EV-DO Rev 0. HSPA+ can fall back to HSDPA. 802.16m can fall back to 802.16e. LTE-Advanced can fall back to LTE. Any argument that WiMAX and LTE are not 4G quickly falls apart because of the core technology as well as what they are compatible with.

So there are 3 aspects to this argument.

  • 4G as a marketing term - this is arbitrary
  • 4G as a core technology - this makes the most logical sense and can proven by compatibility with the IMT-Advanced versions - this is ABI Research's stance
  • 4G as the ITU defines it - this is based on arbitrary numbers for speed and latency (I mean arbitrary for the fundamental technology - it is not arbitrary in terms of meeting performance goals)

WiMAX and LTE are 4G - they bring with it:
  • Faster data rates
  • Lower latency
  • Lower cost/MB
  • Compatibility with their IMT-Advanced versions

T-Mobile's network is not a 4G network. They feel they have license to call it a 4G network for two reasons:
  • Their network runs faster than early 4G networks
  • The ITU said that WiMAX and LTE are not 4G, so if Sprint and Verizon are calling it 4G, then it's OK for them to do the same.
But this is completely wrong. Here's why:
  • Speeds of generations can overlap. The latest versions of 3G can certaintly be faster than the newest versions of 4G. The same thing happened with 2G and 3G. It's not just the speeds, but the fundamental technology and what it is compatible with. HSPA+ is the end of a 3G roadmap. WiMAX and LTE are the beginning of 4G roadmaps.
  • HSPA+ is a CDMA technology which is 3G.

So we have covered Sprint's WiMAX, Verizon's LTE, and T-Mobile's HSPA+. AT&T jumped into the fray saying that they have had an HSPA+ network for longer than T-Mobile has. Yes, that is true. That is the reason why their networks are not the same HSPA+ networks. AT&T has older base stations that can only handle 16 QAM. T-Mobile rolled out its 3G network much later, allowing it to do so with newer, more powerful base stations that support 64 QAM. This is one of the components that goes into how fast an HSPA+ network can go. T-Mobile's HSPA+ is faster than AT&T's HSPA+. They are not the same.
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Dragonwave reinforces their unified legacy and IP backhaul

Nov 3, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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With the recent acquisition of Axerra​, Dragonwave has made a move to diversify their reach in terms of backhaul. Supplying most ofClearwire's backhaul for WiMAX networks through their microwave products, Dragonwave has had a revenue boost due to the 4G service provider deploying and expanding their networks in many major cities throught the United States. This has positioned the company in providing anall-IP based microwave backhaul for service providers. Not limited solelytoWiMAX, their solutions areattractive to new greenfield, overlay, and network expanding LTEdeployments.

The Axerra acquisitionpositions them for providingTDM supportover pseudowire technology, throughtheir packet based microwave solutions. This places them in a good position to provide microwave backhaul to service providers with legacy infrastructure who are not willing to let go of the advantages TDM has to offer. Incumbent operators are amongst these service providers, and their transition away from TDM technologies can be slow and may go through transitional phases.

TDMbackhaul provides for these service providers withlegacy equipment, a certain quality of service and ease of management that can't be found on a regular Ethernet backhaul.

With the acquisition valued at $9.5 million, both sides are eager to expand their customer base and work towards a unified backhaul solution.The complications of having to upkeep 2 separate TDM and IP networks, and in some cases, 3 if they also have an SDH/SONET network, adds value to their services and can attract carrierswhom have been watching this company's product shipments and portfolio grow.

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Amazon and Vudu’s Digital Lockers offer instant gratification

Nov 3, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Recently, both Vudu and Amazon provided instant gratification for people buying DVDs or Blu-ray discs. These announcements are likely to bring digital lockers into primetime. Vudu announced that it will delivery physical and digital copies together with Toy Story 3, allowing the instant gratification of Video on Demand, coupled with a physical disc which can be picked up at Walmart (Vudu’s parent). This strategy will give customers a chance to become familiar with the Vudu platform with little risk, provide instant gratification for the impulse purchase, and drive traffic to Walmart stores among video customers. No word on other titles to be included in this program.

Amazon’s similar “Disc+ On Demand” announcement was more far-reaching, covering 10,000 titles! This will include previous purchases of eligible titles. Unfortunately, none of the three items recently purchased for me as a gift by Mom – Cars, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, or March of the Penguins was available. Even if they were, I would need to log into my mom’s account! Hopefully, they will work out a way to gift a digital copy as the service becomes more popular.
Assuming Vudu does expand its offerings – which one should you choose? It depends on what brand of internet TV you use, as shown on HD guru. If you use an internet adaptor, Roku and Google TV both support Amazon VoD but not Vudu. Boxee supports Vudu both not Amazon VoD. Apple TV doesn’t support either!

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Nokia launches Digital Radio Headset (DAB)

Nov 1, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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A few months ago when I published our Digital Radio report, I stuck my head out and suggested that network operators would push handset manufacturers to include digital radio (DAB or HD Radio) receivers in handsets to provide high quality music experiences – with smartphones starting to include them in 2011. Recently, Nokia launched a headset accessory that includes a DAB receiver with a micro-USB interface to enable handsets to receive DAB radio. They previously announced a video versions supporting DVB-H. The device is expected to start selling before the end of the year in the UK for 40- 45.

While this falls short of incorporation in the handset itself – it points to continued demand for DAB radio in Europe, and handset manufacturers paying attention to the trend. Nokia’s strategy could include testing demand with a standalone product, capturing a larger market than their own handsets and/or avoiding adding cost into a competitively priced phone while leveraging a strong accessory market.

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Broadcom buys Femto chipset vendor Percello – Positive endorsement for Femtocell market

Oct 27, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Broadcom is the largest Wi-Fi chipset vendor in the market. Its purchase of Percello, a small and upcoming femtocell chipset supplier from Israel is a positive endorsement of the state of the femto market. It also is proof of the complementary nature of femto and WiFi where vendors are becoming more open to the need for heterogeneous access technologies.

The femtocell market has definitely turned a corner in 2010 with femtocell shipments expected to cross the 1 million milestone, with larger volumes expected in 2011. There are around 17 operators across the world that are offering a commercial femtocell services. Contract manufacturers in Asia are known to be feverishly ramping up capacity in the last few months preparing for a wave of orders. One of the prominent femtocell vendors Alcatel-Lucent has announced 14 femto contracts that it has secured during 2Q-3Q 2010. There is momentum in the market, something which Broadcom felt was reason enough for it to invest in.

Broadcom has been known to be shopping around, looking for the right time and right supplier to acquire. With Percello it has acquired a growing business that is now supplying to leading femto vendors like Ubiquisys. Most femtocell operators are now diversifying with their OEM supply chains as networks mature and interoperability starts to set in. Femto OEMs are also diversifying their chipset supply chains. This is a sign of a maturing market.

Broadcom could trigger the introduction of Wi-Fi/Femto integrated SoCs. Integrated Wi-Fi femto/pico access points have already surfaced especially for outdoor/metro deployments. Broadcom not only brings with it the cash reserves and clout of a large chipset supplier into the femto market, but it also brings with it experience of riding the Wi-Fi chipset wave where integration and cost reduction have been key to the success of Wi-Fi.

Broadcom also supplies chipsets for 2G/3G handsets as well as DSL/Cable Modems and IPTV set-top boxes. Therefore, Broadcom brings expertise not only in WiFi but cellular, DSL, cable, IPTV all of which are candidates for femto integration. Broadcom’s portfolio lends itself very well to femtocells complementing and strengthening its position as a leading telecom chipset supplier.

One aspect on the timing of this acquisition could be that Broadcom have their eye on LTE and with this announcement they probably get to catch up with their rival Qualcomm. Broadcom recently purchased Beceem to strengthen its WiMAX client base and build its WiMAX/LTE strategy. Percello is also known to have an LTE multimode femto chipset in the works, which could prove valuable to Broadcom. While that could very well be the case, the femtocell chipset battleground we expect the femto chipset battleground to be around WCDMA in the near-medium term where majority of the shipments are expected to be.

While the technicalities and legalities of the acquisition are figured out in the next few months, Broadcom needs to roll up its sleeves and get working from day one. They will need to act quickly, align their strategy and product portfolio with Percello to compete and differentiate themselves in this fast changing, super competitive marketplace.

Further analysis on the impact on this announcement on the femto chipset ecosystem is available in an upcoming Research Insight which is part of our Femto and Small Cell Research Service.


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TV Apps get some AIR

Oct 25, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Adobe’s MAX global developer conference starts today. They are releasing a new version of Adobe AIR 2.5, and providing a number of significant updates on Flash 10.1. AIR is essentially Flash in a box rather than in a brower – so AIR is a good technology for building Apps. Some say there are two types of Apps developers in the world – those that prefer Java, and those that prefer Flash. The big brouhaha with Apple’s lack of Flash support was that it forced many Flash developers to migrate to new platforms for publishing their Apple applications.
AIR provides cross-platform development tools that work on multiple platforms – from mobile phones to tablets all the way to the TV. It was already announced that Flash 10.1 is working on Google TV, and this announcement is another piece of news that points toward a Google Apps store, filled with Adobe Apps.
More notable is that Samsung will ship AIR 2.5 in Samsung SmarTV devices early next year. Samsung has been trying hard to woo developer’s to their TV’s application software development kit (SDK) – including offering $500K in prizes to the best applications developed in a soon-to-end contest. Samsung has now taken another step to make it much easier to develop applications for their TV platform – they have announced support for Adobe AIR which will allow developers to take web-based applications (or even those written for the iPhone, now that Apple has opened the door again for Flash-based Apps), and just make minor tweaks (if at all).
In the last few years, the mobile app world has flourished – with Apple’s App Store and Android App Stores generating significant revenues. Adobe’s push to new platforms – notably tablets and TV’s – will help to take this healthy market beyond mobile. Adobe is pitching a one-size fits all App Store submission model called InMarket. While this is a good response to the increasing number of device types, OS platforms and app stores, the idea that the same app will end up on platforms which include mobile devices, tablets & notebooks, and TV’s is a little hard to swallow. There are too many format-specific, and form-factor specific features.
I look forward to seeing compelling new Apps on our TV – it may give family game night a whole new meaning.
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Softbank Will Buy WillCom

Oct 22, 2010 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Softbank's impending purchase of Willcom is something that has been talked about for about one year now. WillCom has provided PHS services and has been building its XG-PHS network, which some people refer to as a 4G network since it uses OFDMA. Why would Softbank buy Willcom?

Softbank wants Willcom's spectrum. In Japan, 2 companies won the beauty contest for valuable 2.5 GHz spectrum. One is UQ Communications, of which KDDI had to reduce its ownership to less than a third. UQC chose to deploy WiMAX. After some setbacks and delays, UQC's network achieve very fast speeds, its coverage is expanding, and its subscribers are growing. The other company that received 2.5 GHz spectrum was Willcom. Willcom chose to deploy XG-PHS, a next generation PHS network. Since then, it has run into financial trouble, and Softbank has long been rumored to be interested in buying it.

Now it looks like Softbank will be buying Willcom. Softbank intends to deploy LTE, but they must keep up the XG-PHS network as well to adhere to the requirements for winning the spectrum. It will require devices that use chipsets that support both LTE and XG-PHS. This provides Softbank with the backdoor it needs to use this spectrum for LTE. It's very analogous to how LightSquared is using satellite spectrum for LTE by ensuring that devices have chipsets that also support the satellite connectivity (essentially all of the Qualcomm chipsets - see ABI Research's upcoming Insight for more on that).

If you want to know more about the 4G chipset vendors who are supporting XG-PHS, and thus will have an opportunity to work with device vendors selling devices for Softbank's upcoming LTE network, you can read more about that in our report on the 4G semiconductor market.
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