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Piracy versus Privacy Battles on Three Continents

Mar 30, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The tradeoffs between piracy and privacy are being fought on three continents as we speak. This issue puts the rights of citizens (specifically, the right to privacy) against the rights of copyright holders (specifically, the right to protect their intellectual property). Where will it end? Peer-to-peer distribution (i.e. BitTorrent) is becoming less economical due to the fear of prosecution. Usage Based Billing for broadband will also put a crimp in its style.

In North America, Time Warner lost a battle to limit the number of IP lookups the company must do at the request of those prosecuting copyrights. Time Warner appears to have been playing technically dumb in an effort to stand up for the privacy rights of their subscribers – essentially insisting that looking up IP addresses is a slow, tedious and expensive ($45 / lookup) process. Of course, if you only do a few, that is the case. But if you must do thousands, some simple automation should bring that cost down to pennies (or at least a couple of dollars). In France, about 50K violations are flagged each day; in January it was reported that the government’s HADOPI administrators were warning 2-10K of these users per day.
In Europe, TalkTalk and British Telecom (BT) are challenging the Digital Economy Act (DEA) based on similar grounds -- overstepping users’ rights to privacy, and being burdensome to ISPs.
Meanwhile, in Asia, Baidu’s document service (which allows public access to a variety of documents) found a needle in a HayStack – finding that less than 0.04% (1000 documents in 2.8 million) of the documents were non-infringing. Video distribution sites – notably YouKu and QiYi (owned by Baidu) – seem to be cooperating more fully with Hollywood, likely to ensure they remain viable investment vehicles to Western companies.

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Amazon Launches Digital Locker - But Does Somebody Still Need One?

Mar 29, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Amazon has become the first of the big firms to launch a cloud based digital locker for music (and video), amid continuous rumors that both Google and Apple are working on something similar. The whole locker concept is still up in the air because nobody really knows how its licensing dimension will eventually pan out. Much of that will depend on the outcome of the courtroom case between Mp3tunes.com and EMI. Amazon has apparently concluded that the risk of irking the labels is negligible, and isn’t paying licensing fees for content that it stores in its Cloud Drive service. The company'sother conclusion may wellhave been that if it wants to make its music download business grow, now was the eleventh hour to get a complementarylocker offering out.

In terms of specs and features, Cloud Drive seems pretty well designed and implemented – but that’s only if you still want to own the music you listen to. Not everybody does anymore, as our recent study on Mobile Cloud Music Services shows. One major factor that has worked in favourofon-demand and internet radio providers is the fact how ridiculously difficult listening to your own music collection viaphone or car stereo can be. Assuming that selling music track by track is the most lucrative form of digital distribution for the rights-holders, they have definitely scored an own goal by dragging their heels over cloud storage. (Yes, those lessons from the years when the only MP3 songs you could downloadwere pirated ones couldhave been learned slightly better by some.)

One tip toAmazon and others who bet their money on lockers: Add to your features a decent recommendation engine. Locker customers are likely to be heavy users, who own hundreds of songs. Putting such a collection into a desirable playlist can be tricky when the user is on the move, so integrating the service with a recommendation app (like e.g. Moodagent) canmake the listening experience a good deal better.​

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Baidu Mobile OS - Day Dreaming or Serious Contender?

Mar 23, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today Baidu announced it was also going to get into the mobile handset OS market. As a number of commentators have mentioned, it is a space that is getting pretty crowded (iPhone, Android, Windows Phone 7, webOS from HP). And that is leaving out the cluster of Linux-based mobile OSes such as LiMo, Ophone (China Mobile) and WoPhone (China Unicom).
Why does Robin Li, Baidu’s chief executive, believe there is a need for (yet) another mobile OS? He did provide some commentary although the explanation is a little confusing…
Certainly it is true an iPhones takes 35 seconds to do a cold boot up. Most iPhone users would have their iPhone in “sleep” mode. From sleep mode to having Safari web browser open takes less than 2 seconds.
Slow smartphone boot-up times aside, there has to be more to this story than meets the eye…
Mr Li talks about “box computing”-based handsets. This could translate to Baidu wanting to develop stripped-down smartphones that have power search and media experiences that are accessed via the internet.
There is a lot that Baidu needs to get “right” and soon. See Insight for more information.

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Femtozone APIs Released – Will Developers Bite?

Mar 23, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The Femto Forum has finally published a set of APIs, which can be used by third party software developers to build services and applications for femtocells. The idea is to have applications access a mobile's location and presence information while it is in a femtozone. This information can then be used to trigger services such as alerts, content synchronization, etc.

There are two kinds of APIs that have been defined

- Reusing existing ParlayX APIs part of GSMA OneAPI such as RESTful and SOAP WSDL which allow for access to SMS, MMS, location or payment information on the mobile network

- New API for ‘Femto Awareness’ which notifies application when user enters, exits or moves within a femtozone. This is also implemented using ParlayX authentication

The Femto Forum approach has been to build upon available APIs and utilize existing frameworks rather than invent APIs from scratch. ParlayX (now part of GSM OneAPI) are standard web service APIs built for accessing fixed or mobile network capabilities.

The hard work for the Femto Forum and femtocell vendors begins now . This includes educating application developers about these new femtozone APIs. While the possibilities and use cases for femtozone applications are endless (covered in an ABI Research report ‘Consumer Femtozone Services’), the litmus test will be building an ecosystem of developers. The one place I would start would be the Apple iOS and Google Android developer events.

This could also turn out to be a classic ‘chicken and egg’ situation where developers wait for operators to get behind femtozone services, while operators wait for an ecosystem of developers to form.

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$39 Billion – The Cost of Fixing AT&Ts Network Woes

Mar 21, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The AT&T T-Mobile merger worth $39 billion has taken most of the telecom world by surprise. Although it was expected that Deutsche Telekom was looking to dispose off their T-Mobile US asset close on the heels of the T-Mobile UK asset which got merged with Orange – no one really expected AT&T to step in with the amount of money that they have put up - a whopping $39 billion.

On the brand new merger website, http://www.mobilizeeverything.com/ - which sounds quite similar to Everything Everywhere (the newly formed entity from the Orange T-Mobile UK merger) – AT&T has laid out its reasons for the deal. The reason is clear – AT&T has been struggling with an 8000% increase in data traffic since the launch of the Apple IPhone on its network. AT&T is network infrastructure and spectrum constrained to meet the growing demand of mobile data traffic.

AT&T has been trying all the tricks in its bag to get its network up to speed (literally!) – moving to HSPA+, adding additional cell sites/towers/rooftops, building its indoor coverage footprint with DAS and femtocells, recently rolling out Outdoor DAS nodes in Palo Alto, and using Wi-Fi as a preferred offload solution in hotspots like New York and San Francisco.

With the LTE launch expected for later in 2011, and with Verizon’s LTE network up and running in 38 markets already – AT&T was under pressure to boost its network capabilities more importantly its spectrum assets. T-Mobile’s AWS spectrum with its 10 MHz and 20 MHz chunks ripe for spectrum refarming of LTE should give AT&T an advantage over Verizon.

More importantly – AT&T’s femtocell strategy (which is largely voice-based at the moment) complements T-Mobile’s Wi-Fi/UMA strategy – with both femtocells and Wi-Fi being important from a network offload perspective. While Wi-Fi is likely to become the dominant offload strategy - femtocells combined with the ability to reuse multiple spectrum chunks in small cells - give AT&T with an advantage where they have many more tools at hand to compete against Verizon's mobile broadband push.

However, the question that everyone will be asking is whether AT&T was justified in spending $39 billion to fix its network woes or is there an element of over-valuation of T-Mobile’s network assets?

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AT&T & T-Mobile: Is It A Good Deal For Consumers?

Mar 21, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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So AT&T and DT dropped the bomb yesterday, messing up lots of people’s weekends, the question I asked my self was – is this deal good for consumers?

The answer is yes and no.
YES! It is most likely a good thing for current AT&T mobile customers, as network coverage and quality should improve with the addition of T-Mo’s cell sites. Most of the two companies networks overlap, so the benefit is in the extra capacity AT&T gains in their current coverage areas. They will also benefit if they are able to keep the spectrum which will allow them to build out a more complete LTE system. So if you are a current AT&T customer, you have something to look forward to.
NO! T-Mobile has gained a reputation in the U.S. as the value segment leader, something AT&T is decidedly not. A large proportion of T-Mobile’s customers will most likely be faced with a price hike should the deal go through. I don’t think AT&T is going to try too hard to keep most of these “value” segment customers, as they do not view them as profitable.

So where will these consumers go? I think the biggest benefactor of subscriber churn in this deal will be Sprint. While they have a solid enterprise customer base and are not a cut-rate post-paid provider, they could use post-paid subscriber growth, no matter what segment those subscribers fall in. Sprint also has the most diverse and vibrant prepaid suite of offerings of the major U.S. networks, which might be attractive to post-paid value segment customers with no real post-paid value segment alternative to choose from. Other value players, such as Metro PCS could see disgruntled T-Mo customers come their way as well.

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​Four Reasons Why AT&T Will Be Allowed to Buy T-Mobile

Mar 21, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Deutsche Telekom’s management has had two widely-reported headaches over the past two to three years: the T-Mobile businesses in US and UK. The UK dilemma was resolved about 18 months ago by a merger with Orange, and now the group seems finally have found a dance partner for T-Mobile USA as well. The fact that it’s in the end AT&T and not Sprint makes a lot of sense. Both are GSM carriers, and merging them would give Deutsche Telekom exposure to a market leader which will be much more convincing as an asset than any T-Sprint could ever have been.

Nonetheless, at the same time the move is also much unexpected, since it will create a nationwide carrier that will be much more powerful (by nearlyone-third, in terms of subscriber market shares) than its closest challenger, Verizon. There’s no doubt that this will cause a major regulatory hiccup, and the new “T-AT” will have to shed spectrum and other assets in many areas where it operates. But at the end of the day, our take is that the deal will go through in a form or another. There are four reasons:

  • T-Mobile is a weak player, and everyone knew that Deutsche Telekom had been looking an M&A solution for it. Without a merger (this or some other) T-Mobile would just fall behind in 4G investments and lose more ground.​
  • The FCC and the Department of Justice are likely to evaluate the market impact on a market-by-market rather than nationwide basis. So with some spectrum stripping and other divestments the new market leader could well become palatable.
  • The traditional telco model is dead in the water. Operators simply don’t have the same pricing power in voice and messaging as they had before, and thus they can’t really hike their call and SMS tariffs. Consumers would just message via Facebook and call via VoIP.
  • ​The trickiest part of all this is net neutrality. Mobile data access will be a less competitive race from now on, and it’s entirely possible that US operators won’t be given as free hands to manage their data traffic as they might with an independent T-Mobile in the game. So while the FCC relaxes intensely on the M&A front, it could – and indeed should – get stricter when it comes to wireless net neutrality. In the markets where there’s an inadequate broadband competition (including both fixed and wireless) carriers should be allowed less freedoms to police the traffic.

What will the move mean to Deutsche Telekom’s operations elsewhere? Those $39 billion are a lot of cash and shares after all. Our guess is that – apart from a possible dividend increase, or a share buy-back – the money will probably just go to building the “gigabit society” of LTE and FTTH in Germany and across the rest of itsexisting footprint. With a notable exception of Poland, Deutsche Telekom doesn’t have much (regulatory) scope to boost its units by buying out rivals. It’s also too late to invest in e.g. Asia as a newcomer, given that the days of making easy money out of emerging telecoms markets are long gone.

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Japan’s Short-Term Loss Will Become Their Long-Term Gain

Mar 18, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Like many Americans, I watched the tragic events in Japan unfold over the past week with a mixture of fear, morbid fascination and a desire to reach out and help. You might have noticed the impact the events have had on the global markets, which I find to be an unfortunate, knee-jerk reaction that could put our global economic recovery at unnecessary risk. There have been reports of delicate supply chain problems that could trigger longer term problems. I am not an economist, but the market reaction seems unfair and short-sighted. I decided I’d like to talk with a Japanese company in our mobile industry to explore their point of view on the short and long-term implications of Japan’s natural disasters.

ACCESS Ltd is a Tokyo-based software company best known as one of the largest suppliers of mobile browsers in the world. According to recent financial statements, the company expects (pre-disaster) net sales of more than $300 million in their fiscal 2010. The company has offices in many parts of the world, including Silicon Valley. I spoke with several individuals from the California office on a group call yesterday, including Albert Chu, VP of Ecosystems and Alliances, Kei Noguchi, Director of Engineering, IP Infusion, Raiko Funakami, Project Director and Kathleen Hedde, Sr. Manager Product Marketing. First, the group noted that the disaster impacted nearly every Japanese company – workers have had difficulty getting to work, as trains in and around Tokyo are not running on time. There are rolling power outages. ACCESS has taken an unusual step to allow its employees in Japan to work from home.

Shifting corporate culture

Kei noted that this is an extraordinary measure for Japanese companies. Most have very strict company security in regards to internet access, and very few , if any allowed telecommuting. This is not the case for ACCESS in the U.S., and the team noted they understand and leverage the productivity telecommuting gives them here. They believe that companies in Japan will realize now the productivity gains of telecommuting, and that we will likely see a significant shift to soften the strict “in office only” model prevalent in Japan today, as companies adapt a different work culture.
ACCESS provides its software solutions to a lot of Japanese OEMs, like Panasonic and Sharp. The group said there is a bit of a slowdown for ACCESS in delivering for their customers in Japan at this time, but they believe this is a short-term issue. Some global companies will have more than a short term problem. Ford has said they are shutting down production of a particular plant in the U.S. because a key part made in Japan is not currently available. Toyota has also stopped production of the Prius in certain plants because of the battery is made in Japan. For most global companies, this is an exception, not the rule. ACCESS is a software company, their production is only impacted short term as workers quickly adopt alternative ways to work. Intel and Qualcomm have stated their businesses will not be impacted, as they use multiple source supply chains for this very reason.

Letting go of manufacturing

But again, ACCESS pointed out a potential silver lining for Japan’s economy – a diversification away from manufacturing. For years, Japanese companies have resisted outsourcing manufacturing to other countries, even though it would be significantly cheaper to do so. In this way, Japan’s economy begins to evolve much like the U.S. economy, which is increasingly focused on developing industries that can sustain highly paid workers – namely those that focus on intellectual property and software. Raiko pointed out that along these lines, it will be important for Japan not only to disperse manufacturing but to also move its brainpower to centers outside of Japan. As a software company ACCESS might be in the vanguard of such a movement. “You can write software anywhere, you don’t need to be in Tokyo to do so, said Mr. Funakami, “our company has benefitted greatly from being able to work in a software hotspot like Silicon Valley’.
Lots of other items were discussed – Japan will have to embrace alternative energy and there will be opportunities in that shift – how fascinated the group was that in trying to reach loved ones in Japan from outside Japan, the most reliable ways were Facebook and Twitter – how ACCESS might pursue an idea of developing a private SMS club modeled after GroupMe, to allow families and friends to communicate with each other when other systems are down – but I will leave you with one other significant thought.
Kei told us on Saturday he tried to reach his father who lives in Japan. He is recently retired. When he finally got through, Kei urged his father to leave Japan and come to the U.S. “until things settle down,” said Kei. His father refused. “He told me, I’m going back to work on Monday. That is the right thing to do to get us back to normal.” Albert pointed out that there has been a total absence of reports of looting or chaos. That is simply not the Japanese way.

The ethic and spirit of the Japanese people, more than anything to me, means this economic crisis, spurred by natural disaster, will be very short term. And the Japan will learn from this tragedy and come out stronger. And that will be a good thing for all of us.

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Ikanos brings G.vector Home

Mar 15, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Ikanos today announced their new Fusiv line of communications processors featuring G.vector (ITU G.993.5) extensions for DSL modems. G.vector extensions provide MIMO capabilities to existing DSL modems, and are expected to provide up to 100 Mbps (at least in lab conditions). Higher datarates (up to 300 Mbps) can be achieved with bonding. Ikanos, Broadcom and Lantiq are the 3 major semiconductor providers that have announced G.vector implementations. The announcements that were made around a year ago were primarily around the dense silicon implementations that goes into the DSLAM (i.e., at the central office / CO ). This announcement by Ikanos is the first G.vector announcement focused around the home.

Ikanos says that devices will ship in production volumes this quarter – with early design wins already cemented and production-quality silicon in the lab for several months. In a recent call with Ikanos, Matt Keowen (Senior director of Corporate Marketing at Ikanos) discusses three elements to the solution, claiming the third is unique to the Ikanos implementation. First is the line card (CO) silicon and second is the CPE silicon – these handle the MIMO noise cancellation along the path. The third item is Ikanos’s “NodeScale” implementation which includes vector compute engine that handles cross-talk cancellation among all the lines in the system, which is required for denser CO implementations with traditional twisted pair networks. He claims implementations without this technology will be limited to deployments which leverage fiber to the building / basement (FTTB) – in which you have approximately 48 ports in a deployment.
For the time being, there is no interoperability among G.vector implementations – so Ikanos DSLAM implementations will be required to pair with Ikanos CPE implementations. Telco’s looking at G.vector speeds within the next few years will need to choose a single silicon vendor – although they could select multiple hardware vendors to provide their equipment. A bigger issue is the ongoing battle for broadband connectivity between telco’s (using fiber or twisted pair) and cable companies (using primarily Coax, but some fiber in Asia). Fixed Wired broadband deployments are forecast to grow at about 2.5% worldwide from 2010 to 2016. Fiber sees the bulk of the growth, from 53M to 123M subscribers (CAGR of 15%), while Cable grows at 2% CAGR and Telco’s over DSL lose subscribers at about 0.3% CAGR. Cable’s growth comes from two factors – first of all, telco’s are the incumbent broadband providers, and Cable broadband is still the newcomer in many geographies. Second – DOCSIS 3.0, which can offer speeds up to 160 Mbps – has a head start with deployments, with some volume shipments starting in 2009.

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Why European Operators Are Like Utility Firms

Mar 15, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today’s Financial Times has a story with a mildly misleading but at the same time revealing title: “Regulator demands steep cut in mobile revenues”. This is misleading in the sense that dictating mobile carriers’ revenues is hardly what telecoms regulators are meant to do, but also very revealing because this is what they’re effectively doing these days in Europe. That’s not their fault, however.

The regulator in question is the UK’s Ofcom, and its “steep cut” refers to the new mobile termination rates. Everything Everywhere, O2, and Vodafone will see their MTRs reduced by 84% over the next four years, while the separate rates that apply to Hutchison’s 3 will drop 85%. The background in a nutshell is as follows. In Europe the interconnection costs are shared by predefined charges rather than a bill-and-keep system (such as the one in US), and those charges then are set by the national regulators.

The regulators are overseen by the EU, which tries to ensure that every member state follows the same uniform (and downward) MTR trend.The cost-calculation formulae – and thus the exact level of the MTRs – are subject to some debate, but in general the EU and the national regulators are doing the right thing here. Allowing telcos to price interconnection higher than what it actually costs to them would just limit competition and artificially prop the retail prices of calls.​

But what does all this reveal about the European telco space? Well, frankly: its rather sorry state. Mobile calls are like gas or electricity – a utility that can’t really be differentiated, and of which price depends largely on regulation. Quarterly reports from European carriers habitually cite “regulatory interventions” as a main reason for why life was again so difficult over the reporting period, and no wonder. As the FT’s article points out, wholesale typically accounts for 10-15% of their revenue, so the direct exposure to MTR cuts is indeed quite heavy. A further, indirect hit comes from the cuts that the lower MTRs tend to stir on the retail voice market.

Just like gas and electricity firms, Europe’s mobile operators aren’t anymore controlling their own destiny, but a good deal of it is down to such a mundane area of life as the regulation of wholesale prices. That’s another darn good reason to try making those dumb pipes of data smarter.

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