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Rovi sues Hulu...

Aug 9, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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No sooner had I written about the importance of intellectual property in interactive TV services than I realized that I missed Rovi having sued Hulu relating to Electronic Program Guide (EPG) patents:

http://www.fierceiptv.com/story/rovi-hulu-infringed-program-guide-patent/2011-08-01

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An Arbitrage Opportunity in the M2M Connectivity Services Market?

Aug 8, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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An ABI Research colleague recently asked about arbitrage opportunities in the provisioning of cellular M2M connectivity services. He asked whether MVNOs in the M2M market could simply buy data from MNOs at an equivalent rate to what the mobile operators charge smartphone users, and mark that up for sale to M2M customers at a rate less than what MNOs would charge for M2M data. This becomes a very valid question because, as has increasingly been mentioned by analysts and the media, M2M data connectivity services can actually be a fairly high margin business. This is counter-intuitive and paradoxical, given the very low ARPU (average revenue per user) typical for most M2M applications, relative to traditional smartphone and notebook PC cellular connectivity.

So, is there an arbitrage opportunity to be had, and if so, why aren’t MVNOs taking advantage of it?
The short answer is: yes – there would be an arbitrage opportunity, if the MNOs weren’t pressing into the M2M market directly themselves.
Unfortunately for the MVNOs, the MNOs are invested heavily in developing their M2M market operations. It took many of the MNOs a number of years to realize the full extent of the opportunity in M2M – in terms of both scale and margin. Part of this was figuring out how best to organize and deploy resources to offer M2M connectivity services efficiently, and cost-effectively, and in a manner that optimally matched the needs of the market. Now, however, MNOs are fully committed to M2M, many having formed M2M business units, deployed M2M-specific platforms and core network infrastructure, and some have even established M2M development centers and formed partnerships with cellular embedded module vendors to reduce the costs of modules.
Consequently, the MVNOs face a competitor – who is also their supplier – who will always be able to undercut them on price. This point was driven home to us recently in a discussion with two different CSPs – one an MNO, and another an MVNO. The MNO quoted a price for smart meter connectivity at around $0.40 per meter per month, for a smart meter connected directly to the cellular network. In contrast, the MVNO quoted a price roughly 150% higher, and about $1.00 per meter per month.
Consequently, both MNOs and MVNOs have figured out that charging a premium for M2M connectivity – along with cost reduction measures – can make M2M a very attractive business proposition. In practical terms, however, this is not an arbitrage opportunity for the MVNOs, because not only do both MNOs and MVNOs want to avoid a cost war, it is a war the MVNOs would lose.
For more research on the cellular M2M market, please see ABI Research’s M2M Research Service .

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Should We Say Farewell to the “Early Adopter?”

Aug 8, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​In the tech industry the “early adopters” have usually been viewed as bleeding edge technophiles, who just happen to have the discretionary income and/or drive/passion to purchase products at or near launch. In addition to those enamored by the technology there are others who enjoy having (and being seen with) the greatest and newest gadget (often from Apple). But recent events might give some of these “early adopters” pause when purchasing that new-fangled (or “next gen”) device – in fact one could argue consumers are being conditioned to avoid new product launches all together.

While early adopters have always accepted declining prices as an inevitability and the potential for technologies/devices/services they purchase to one day become nonexistent (e.g. DivX from Circuit City – both of which are effectively defunct), the recent actions by several companies could change this dynamic. In other words the value early adopters glean from being among the first to buy a product might soon “fade away.” So what are these events/actions?

The most recent is the HP TouchPad. I will admit I am one of the relative few who purchased a Palm Pre (from Sprint, not long after the phone’s launch) and who happens to still have the device - I’m telling you this because it plays an important role in this discussion. As a “loyal” WebOS consumer I was offered a $50 discount on the 32GB HP TouchPad just prior to the official launch (July 1, 2011). Step forward just over one month and much to the chagrin of early adopters HP offered a $100 discount on both TouchPad models (originally priced at $500 16GB and $600 32GB) over the past weekend and made the price $449.99 for the 16GB and $549.99 for the 32GB – note that Amazon.com still lists the TouchPads for 100 less than the original launch prices. So HP offered a mea culpa to their most ardent supporters and offered these consumers a $50 credit to the application marketplace – as a Palm Pre owner I’m willing to assume the $50 credit is not as valuable as some (those who have not had to deal with WebOS application inadequacies) might presume. WebOS/HP/Palm is but one example.

Nintendo also reduced the price of their 3DS handheld game player in less than 6 months ($80 off the original $250) – not surprisingly this drew the ire of the early adopters as well, to which Nintendo offered an apology and 20 free downloadable games (10 NES and 10 Gameboy Advance games – yes these are old games). Oh, and labeled these Nintendo loyalists “Ambassadors.” Aside from bestowing a title on these early adopters HP followed a very similar tactic – maybe they were taking notes.

Another product that succumbed to the price cutting ax is Logitech’s Revue Internet set-top box. While it has been on the market longer than the previously mentioned devices the price drop was quite substantial ($150 drop from $250) – in addition Google TV had difficulties securing content deals. While this brings the Revue (Google STB) on price parity with the Apple TV STB (and others like Roku) it too might give some early adopters pause in the future when a new product arrives.

With all of these price cuts early adopters might start to think twice before pulling the trigger on their purchases. While price is almost universally important consumers have become particularly price sensitive – likely in response to the economic environment. Add in the rapid price drops, potential problems with services (e.g. Google TV not securing content deals) and the widespread availability of information about new products and the term “early adopter” could come to mean careless, lacking insight, and possibly overly extravagant instead of tech savvy – for most the antithesis of what it means to be an early adopter (for some the last one might be intended).

Apple has largely remained unscathed in this process; in fact the company likely draws in the largest number of early adopters. But if Apple releases a new iPad this year (even a “pro” line), might the company risk perpetuating these potential issues with being an early adopter? Time will tell. In the end this might not be so much a matter of the death of early adopters but rather the need for companies to better assess pricing models and consumer demand/expectations. And if all else fails maybe giving early adopters cool names like “Ambassadors” will help ease the pain when others ask why you purchased the product at launch.

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Tekelec Still Struggling

Aug 8, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Tekelec announced second quarter 2011 results last week.
It was a weak quarter in terms of orders and revenues, although the full-year guidance remains unchanged.

Tekelec is still stuck in the “business transformation” from SS7-based circuit-switched networks to IP-based next-generation networks. The next-generation products from the Camiant and Blueslice acquisitions, and the new Diameter Signaling Router, are good products, but orders and revenues from these products have been slower than expected. Tekelec is lucky that orders and revenues from the old “established” products are declining slowly and have not fallen off a cliff as some feared; in fact, there was a big one-time order for Eagle 5 in 4Q2010.

In the long run, the outlook for Tekelec’s next=generation products is good. Strong growth in the policy management market should drive Camiant sales, and 4G deployments over the next few years will result in strong demand for all of the next-generation control plane products. Initially, many LTE operators are purchasing complete Enhanced Packet Core (EPC)networks from single vendors, so there should be good potential for Tekelec to sell individual products to upgrade these networks one or two years down the road.

Overall, I like Tekelec’s new products and direction, but it is not a very exciting company. Top-line revenues have been more or less flat for years. The company seems unable to grow the business organically. Tekelec is sitting on a quarter million dollars in cash, so another acquisition to broaden the product portfolio is conceivable. However, with the market capitalization now down around a half billion dollars, their pile of cash might make Tekelec an attractive acquisition target.

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Mobile Handset Availability 2011 -- Tread Lightly Through The NFC Mobile Payments Hype

Aug 5, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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There is no question there is significant momentum behind NFC mobile payments this year. The Google Wallet initiative, ISIS, the UK, French, Dutch and Dane JVs all bode well for mobile payments – in the long term.
Short term, it is a different story. There will be no NFC mobile payments until there are mobile handsets in the hands of consumers that are equipped with NFC hardware and configured with mobile payment applications.
There have been many announcements this year about mobile handset that will be shipped with NFC capabilities, but you need to look closely and understand if those devices are being shipped with NFC mobile payment capabilities. To date, most are not.
Examples:
Nokia’s N9 and C7 – shipping with NFC capabilities, but NOT enabled for mobile payments http://bit.ly/pxCNUo
Research In Motion’s new Blackberry Bold 990 and 9930 – shipping with NFC capabilities, but NOT enabled for mobile payments. (I confirmed this with RIM spokesperson yesterday).
Google Nexus S on AT&T, T-Mobile -- NOT enabled for Google Wallet. Only Nexus S on Sprint network is NFC payment capable today.
So what handsets are being shipped currently that are NFC mobile payment-enabled? The Google Nexus S on Sprint, Orange UK’s QuickTap, some test phones in France, etc.
There will be more announcements from mobile handset makers this year regarding NFC phones, just make sure you understand that NFC mobile phones do not equate to NFC mobile payment enabled devices.

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Intellectual Property Revenues Important for Advanced TV Vendors

Aug 4, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Now is the time to litigate patents in TV middleware functions including DVRs, interactive advertising, VOD and TV Apps. Advanced middleware, DVR and advertising solutions are important revenue generation and protection strategies for major MSOs, and vendors feel that a product plus patent approach gives them the best chance of success in the marketplace.

In May, Invidi accused Visible World of infringing Invidi patents in their system implemented for Cablevision. These patents cover advanced advertising systems, a topic very much on the mind of MSOs today.
Also in May, DISH Network and EchoStar reached a $500 million settlement with TiVo based on claims they infringed TiVo’s Time Warp patents. TiVO is still involved in intellectual property (IP) litigation with AT&T, Microsoft and Verizon, a fact which it tries to both highlight (“sets a precedent regarding the strength and enforceability of our intellectual property”) and downplay (“our intellectual property program is but one part of TiVo’s long term growth strategy”) in its first quarter results report (April 30, 2011).
Finally, ActiveVideo recently won a $111 million award against Verizon for patent infringement covering interactive TV and video on demand implementations. Note that Verizon developed its own Middleware platform, so no other vendors are named in the suit.
Cablevision seems to be at the center of this patent storm; they use ActiveVideo and Visible World. This is driven primarily by their being an early implementer of these technologies – and therefore a visible target. In January Concurrent announced a patent related to networked DVRs , which could also bring battles, related to Cablevision deployments with SeaChange and others.
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SOTs May Give OSS/BSS Vendors a New Entry Point into the M2M Market

Aug 3, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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“Service optimization tools” (SOTs) may provide a means for traditional OSS/BSS vendors to re-invigorate their efforts to gain traction in the cellular M2M market, in which they are currently regarded as playing “catch up”. The key idea is that SOTs form a layer between the M2M service delivery platforms (SDPs) that are either built in-house by the mobile network operator (MNO) or are acquired from third-party firms, such as Jasper Wireless, and the MNO’s core network. SDPs are a form of OSS/BSS tailored to the specific needs of M2M services, providing such tools as automated bulk provisioning and customer self-management of devices. However, specialist SDP vendors have largely taken the lead in this market, and the window of opportunity for traditional OSS/BSS vendors to win MNO partnership deals in the M2M space is rapidly drawing to a close.

These SOTs are typically being offered now by newer entrants to the M2M market, such as Evolving Systems, Bridgewater (recently acquired by Amdocs), and Tekelec and focus on specific functionality, as opposed to full SDPs. Examples of such tool functionality could be: ameliorating signaling load from large scale M2M deployment, dynamic SIM allocation, and virtualized identification. ABI Research believes this reflects a natural market maturation process, as well as an inflection point, which potentially could give the traditional OSS/BSS vendors a new opportunity to “catch up” to more established M2M SDP providers.
Fundamentally, as specific new “tools” come into the market to enhance management of M2M devices over cellular networks, it leads to MNOs re-opening opportunities for partnerships and relationships with platform and tool providers. Essentially, this can be thought of as entering into a new partnership with an MNO that already has an existing SDP by providing a new tool “underneath” the SDP to enable it to interact even more effectively with the MNO’s network, in a manner analogous to an M2M application platform vendor providing a platform “on top” of the SDP to enable it to work more effectively with application developers’ software.
Of course, this strategy necessitates that the OSS/BSS vendor actually possess such a tool to offer to the MNOs. It remains to be seen, however, whether the traditional OSS/BSS community will fully seize this chance to become relevant to MNOs for M2M connectivity.
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Telit Buys GlobalConect and Expands Its Strategy in the M2M Market

Aug 3, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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In July 2011, Telit Communications – a leading global provider of embedded cellular M2M modules – announced it had closed the acquisition of GlobalConect Ltd. for an offering of $2.9 million in cash and stock. GlobalConect Ltd. is a provider of cellular connectivity services for M2M applications, similar to a company like KORE Telematics or Numerex (albeit a much smaller company). Telit’s CEO, Oozi Cats, is quoted as saying, “Adding wireless connectivity to our offering is an important factor for Telit’s continued growth and success. Our customers expect superior M2M solutions from one source and with the acquisition of GlobalConect we will now be in a position to address their needs more comprehensively.” Apart from the assertion that customers want a single source M2M solution, what factor likely had the most impact on the decision to acquire GlobalConect Ltd.?

The cellular M2M module market is undergoing a process of commoditization and consolidation among traditional vendors, driven, in part, by new entrants from China able to compete aggressively on price. Consequently, many of the M2M module incumbents have either exited the market as independent entities (e.g. Wavecom, Enfora, and Motorola Wireless Modules), or have expanded their strategic approach by incorporating other elements of the M2M value chain in their offering. Telit, which has been notable to date for sticking to a very traditional component vendor business model, is now essentially agreeing that commoditization pressures in its core area of business warrant it expanding its strategic scope as well, in this case with a connectivity service offering for M2M applications.
So, will Telit’s plan work? ABI Research’s assessment is decidedly neutral. On a positive note, M2M connectivity services can be fairly high margin in a fast growing market segment; certainly compared to traditional voice/data telecom services. This is the reason so many mobile operators are have now jumped into the M2M market with both feet, establishing M2M business units, opening M2M development centers to assist application developers, and even partnering with certain module vendors to bring down the costs of 3G modules even more rapidly.
Nevertheless, Telit has chosen a particularly difficult way to enter the services market. MVNOs (and Telit would essentially be an MVNO, re-selling data from mobile operators) are facing an increasing amount of competition from mobile operators in the M2M market. Mobile operators, as network owners with typically much larger financial resources relative to MVNOs, are well-positioned to compete on price, to bundle M2M data connectivity with other telecom services, and to leverage their deep existing business customer relationships and enterprise sales forces to win new M2M business.
There are certainly things that Telit can do to improve its chances for success, but ultimately only time will tell if the GlobalConect acquisition was a wise decision.
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Stop Calling Square A Mobile Payment!

Aug 1, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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It's a testament to media hype and the 24-hour news cycle that Square, the payments darling, is called a mobile payment.

How, exactly, is Square a mobile payment?

Square can help a merchant get rid of legacy payment terminals and use an iPhone to accept a credit card payment from a consumer. The consumer hands the merchant a PLASTIC credit card, which is then run through a mag stripe reader attached to an iPhone. That is not a mobile payment -- it's a merchant solution for getting rid of payment terminals.

In my opinion, mobile payments should be defined as a payment made by a consumer which in some way involves THE CONSUMER'S MOBILE DEVICE OR ACCOUNT. This mobile payment could be remote -- (examples -- using your mobile phone to shop online, using your mobile to make or receive a person to person payment, using your mobile to pay utility or other types of bills, using your pre or postpaid mobile account to make a purchase.) or local (ex: using your phone to make a payment in a physical location, examples are ISIS, Google Wallet, AisleBuyer, FaceCash, Modiv Mobile, Starbucks prepaid card on your mobile, etc.).

There's enough confusion about mobile payments as it is. Let's not make it any worse.​

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Sprint and LightSquared Megadeal Will Shake Up the US Wireless Industry

Jul 29, 2011 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Sprint and LightSquared announced a broad agreement for cooperation yesterday.
There are lots of interesting points for discussion concerning this agreement, but let me start with the first few that come to mind.
LightSquared will pay Sprint to operate an LTE Radio Access Network using LightSquared’s L-band spectrum. Sprint will use the new multi-mode base stations which are part of their “Network Vision”.
This deal is good for Sprint because they will get a significant amount of cash from LightSquared to build the network, which will expedite the roll-out of Sprint’s own network services (to be announced in September). The deal is good for LightSquared because they can depend on Sprint to deploy and operate the network instead of doing it themselves.
LightSquared will deploy an LTE core network from Nokia Siemens Networks. NSN and LightSquared signed an 8-year agreement last year valued at US$7B to install an LTE network. Presumably the total value of the contract will now decrease because NSN will not be providing the Radio Access Network, but NSN should be happy with the core network deployment and services revenue. If NSN provides managed services to maintain and operate the core network for LightSquared, it could be very profitable for NSN. And now NSN does not have the headache of making base stations for the L-band spectrum.
As everyone knows, there are major concerns from the FAA and GPS users concerning interference with LightSquared’s frequency spectrum. The Sprint deal is contingent upon resolution of these issues, at least at a regulatory level. However, the difficult task of implementing base stations for this spectrum without causing interference problems will now fall into the laps of Sprint’s base station vendors Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson and Samsung.
More to follow . . .
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