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Highlights of the First Weightless Plenary Conference

May 10, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Yesterday (9th May 2012), I had the opportunity to attend the second day of the Weightless SIG’s first plenary conference in Cambridge, England. In total, around 40 people were present with most of them representatives of the SIG’s membership base. Interestingly, representatives from a number of non-member companies such as Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone were also present, illustrating that MNOs are paying close attention to the development of the Weightless standard and the use of white space in M2M applications.

The day consisted of presentations madeby chairmen of the SIG's six sub-groups (Applications, MAC, PHY, Regulatory, Security and Testing & Certification),each of whom provided an update on their “chapter” of the Weightless standard specifications. Following several rounds of healthy debate among the assembled technophiles, agreement was reached to move the standard from version 0.6 (released during the inaugural meeting of the SIG back in September 2011) to version 0.7. With plenaries due to be held every quarter, the SIG aims to advance the standard by 0.1 on each occasion, culminating in the release of version 1.0 in Q1 2013. At this time the SIG plans to deliver the standard to ETSI for formal ratification.

Some further revelations made by the SIG, as well as important facets of the evolving standard are as follows:

  • Weightless aims to be a global standard that is application agnostic. There is no intention to create application-specification profiles like the ZigBee Alliance has done.
  • Smart metering is likely to be one of the very early applications for Weightless. Other target applications include healthcare, asset tracking and automotive, to name but a few.
  • PSKs (pre-shared keys) with AES-128 encryption will be used to ensure security in the link layer (the connection between base stations and terminals).
  • Peak data rates have been improved by 7 per cent due to an increase in signal bandwidth from 3.75 MHz to 4 MHz.
  • Testing and certification is to cover base stations and terminals.

One of the main talking points of the day involved the issue of algorithm longevity (with respect to AES-128 encryption) and whether it will become disreputable during the time period in which a terminal/base station is deployed. As such, algorithm replacement was mooted and it remains to be seen whether a different level of encryption will be incorporated into the standard at subsequent plenaries. Another point likely to be discussed in the future is the issue of whether the SIG will allow other bodies to carry out testing and certification of products. Given the presence on the day of companies operating in this field, it would seem likely.

All in all, the sessions were very interesting with delegates extremely enthusiastic about the future of white space in the M2M space. One, in particular, remarked that he expected to see the first large-scalecommercial white space M2M deployments within the next 24 months. ABI Research is certainly keeping a close eye on this market, with a research report dedicated to the topic due later this year.

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TMo USA decides to go with incumbent network suppliers for LTE

May 8, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​T-Mobile USA, the last of the mobile operators in the US to announce LTE upgrades has decided to continue using NSN and Ericsson as its suppliers for their LTE upgrade network. The network will be rolled out in 2013and will cover 37,000 base stations. NSN and Ericsson have been supplying T-Mobile USA with 2G and 3G network equipment. Ericsson has been its prime supplier for 3G network upgrade which began in 2006 and NSN has been supplying its Flexi Base Stations for the AWS spectrum bands. T-Mobile has since acquired more AWS spectrum from AT&T as a result of the failed bid from AT&T. Based on the past relationship it can be assumed that Ericsson will continue to be the prime supplier while NSN will be the secondary supplier, mainly for the AWS bands.

From a competitive standpoint this isn’t good news for Huawei or Alcatel-Lucent. Huawei has struggled to get a foothold in the US, although it has seen some success in Canada. This is was probably the last opportunity for Huawei to make any headway with any of the large operators in the US. The next upgrade cycle will happen in 3-4 years time when LTE-Advanced comes along. Alcatel-Lucent is well entrenched into Verizon and also AT&T, but it would be disappointed not being able to convince T-Mobile of using its newfangled lightRadio solution for LTE.

T-Mobile USA would have been an ideal candidate for Alcatel-Lucent to show off lightRadio LTE capabilities, both for metro cells and active antennas. In terms of LTE timing T-Mobile is late relative to its competitors, but is well synced with the release window of new heterogeneous and small cell solutions like those from Alcatel, Huawei, NSN and Ericsson.

At the end of the day T-Mobile wanted to keep things simple as use existing suppliers to take them through the LTE upgrade process. They will however be using newer solutions like NSN’s FlexiZone, Ericsson’s Antenna Integrated Radio (AIR) and possibly also its new LTE pico eNodeB. Also T-Mobile’s LTE network will be Rel 10 compatible, using some of the advanced schemes like carrier aggregation, using relay nodes, multi-antenna uplink and SON enhancements.

It will also be interesting to see how T-Mobile USA brands the LTE network, as its current HSPA+ networks are already branded 4G. Carrier aggregation could be something worth keeping an eye on as T-Mobile looks to LTE-Asooner than Verizon and AT&T and with its network already being Rel 10 capable it would have an upper hand to some extent.

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Samsung Galaxy SIII Unveiled

May 8, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​The Samsung Galaxy SIII was unveiled last week in Earls Court, London. The glitzy launch event, Samsung Unpacked 2012, went to plan and the large European and Korean audience seemed impressed with Samsung’s latest smartphone. British television presenter, Suzi Perry, hosted the event and Samsung’s President of Mobile Communications, JK Shin, revealed the new smartphone by plucking it from his jacket pocket on stage.

The hype and publicity around the new Samsung Galaxy S3 has been significant. Numerous rumours have spread around the industry and now it’s time to put them all to rest. ABI Research highlights the new features and specifications of the new smartphone:

  • The smartphone screen size has been increased from 4.3 inches to 4.8 inches, however, it should be noted the overall handset size has not increased substantially and the handset design is curvier than the rectangle shaped S2.
  • The S3 dimensions: height - 136mm; width - 70mm; and depth – 8.6mm. The smartphone weighs 133 grams.
  • The handset will be available in pebble blue or white marble rather than the simple black or white offered for the S2.
  • The smartphone’s primary camera remains 8 megapixels, however, the camera does offer some new features; Best Shot, which takes 8 pictures and picks the best photo out of the 8 shots.
  • The processor has increased to a 1.4 GHz quad-core processor matching the HTC One X and Huawei Ascend. Additionally, the smartphone’s memory has increased from 16GB to 32GB.
  • A new feature called S Voice allows users to command their S3 for initiating calls, sending texts/emails, requesting songs, setting reminders, taking photos and even snoozing their alarms. The handset accepts commands in 8 languages.
  • Additionally, the phone had a motion recognition proximity feature which allows users to highlight a contact and simply lift the phone to their ear and the phone will automatically begin ringing the selected contact.
  • Smart Stay uses the front-facing camera to detect if the user is looking at the screen and keeps the display from timing out.
  • Buddy Share automatically forwards your group photo to your friends using face-recognition. The face-recognition software will identify the subject’s face and send the photo to them via text message or email.
  • Smart Alert catches missed messages and calls and notifies the user of these missed statuses by vibrating when picked up after being idle.
  • The new S Beam feature combines NFC technology with WiFi Direct and allows users to share a photos, videos and music with other Samsung Galaxy SIII. Users need only touch phones and the items can be transferred over without Wi-Fi or cellular signal.
  • Finally, Samsung’s AllShare Cast and Play software lets users wirelessly connect to other Samsung Galaxy S3s, televisions, tablets or PCs, and share content. This new feature is based on the Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA) guidelines which enable device owners to share digital media between key electronic devices.

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Putting a 4.8-inch Screen Size Into Perspective

May 4, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​There are a lot of blogs and articles making a big deal about the screen sizes of new phones. There is a continuous trend of screen sizes getting bigger because generally it is a case of bigger is better. The only problem is with how the phone fits into smaller hands. But is 4.8" all that much larger? Many people are wrongly comparing it to 4.3" screens. 4.3" screens are mostly aligned with Android 2.3 and silk-screened buttons. Phones designed for Android 4.0 have screens that extend into where the silk-screened buttons used to be. This was first seen with the Galaxy Nexus (4.65") which is not all that different in size from an older device with a 4.3" screen.

So a 4.8" screen should really be compared to a 4.65" screen (which maintained the same general size as the older 4.3" screens + silk screened area). The 4.8" screen is just a little bit larger than the 4.65" screen. It's not drastic.

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E.ON and British Gas Boost UK Smart Meter Numbers

May 1, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​At present, Europe leads the world in terms of the number of smart meters deployed (ABI Research estimates that almost 46 million units had been deployed across the region by the end of 2011). However, the vast potential of the market is still nowhere near close to being fully exploited. In fact, if you take Italy and the Scandinavian countries out of the equation, the combined installed base of the remainder of the continent is only around 5 million units. That said, activity is beginning to ramp up in some of the major markets such as Spain and the UK.Let's take a quick look at how UK-based utilities are shaping up to meet the government’s ambitious plans to have all business and residential electricity and gas meters converted to smart meters by 2020.

At last week’s M2M World Congress in London,itemerged that British Gas has so far installed around 400,000 smart meters across the UK.Around half of these were located at its small and medium-sized enterprise sites, with the other half located in customer's homes. By the end of 2012,the companyaims tohaveincreasedthe total number of smart meters deployed to around 2 million.Deployment partners include: Vodafone, which is providing GPRS connectivity to metersthat log readings on a half-hourly basis and transmit information back to the utility every 24 hours;Trilliant, which has developed the communications hub and management software for the solution; as well as Landis+Gyr and Elster – both of whom have been selected as preferred providers of smart meters.

E.ON UKis another utility that ismoving past the pilot phase and starting to deploy smart meters in larger numbers. The company recently announced that it will roll out up to 100,000 units in 2012, followed by a further 200,000 in 2013 on top of the 100,000 it already has in the field. By 2014, it plans to have installed 1 million smart meters nationwide. Like British Gas,E.ON has chosen Elster asthe provider of its smart meters.

The other utilities comprising the UK’s so-called “big six energy companies” – EDF Energy, Scottish Power, RWE Npower and Scottish and Southern Energy are all believed to be testing a variety of different solutions in anticipation of a fully-mandated rollout. This is expected to start in 2014 when the Smart Meter Regulation Group (SMRG) is fully in place.
All in all, we estimate that there are around 750,000 smart meters installed and in operation across the UK and Northern Ireland at present. However, the UK government wants to see some 47 million smart electricity and gas meters (or 53 million depending on which source you read) deployed by 2020 thus illustrating that there is still a massive amount of work to do in order for the country to meet its objectives. Nevertheless, this long and arduous task is underway in earnest and in the next few years, the UK will account for a much greater chunk of the European installed base than it currently does.

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Google, PayPal Not Aggressors To Project Oscar

May 1, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Late Sunday The Financial Times ran a story headlined “Google Warns Over Mobile Payments” http://on.ft.com/JaMG1D . The lead paragraph reads “Google and PayPal have sounded the alarm in Brussels over a proposed joint venture between Britain’s biggest mobile phone operators, warning it could choke the fast-developing mobile payments market.” The media will be sure to make a big stink over this apparent aggression.

While I have no doubts that Google or PayPal would say these things about the joint venture in the U.K., it is important to note that at least Google did not offer any comment unsolicited. This is a very important point – Google was asked by the EC to comment, according to the report. In a paragraph halfway through the article, it states that Google “submitted comments after receiving a non-binding Commission request.” The report did not say whether PayPal’s comments were solicited, but I bet you they were.
It’s not in Google, PayPal or any other mobile wallet player’s best interest to attack a carrier JV. For a long list of reasons I won’t bore you with here, I believe that mobile wallets will never become a mass market accepted consumer choice unless mobile operator JVs like Project Oscar are allowed to move forward. Put another way, neither Google nor PayPal will succeed without mobile carrier-branded mobile wallets in the marketplace. I think all mobile wallet options will eventually be made available to consumers, but it won’t be because players were regulated to do so.
Watch for some clarifying statements from Google over the next few days, and don’t expect Google or PayPal to become aggressive objectors to other mobile wallet joint ventures.
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Huzzah! National Retail Federation Urges FTC To Stay Out of Mobile Payments. Are You Listening European Commission?

Apr 27, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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On April 26th the National Retail Federation told the Federal Trade Commission to stay out of mobile payments http://bit.ly/JxG0uv . They gave several lucid reasons for doing so:

Any regulations adopted “should parallel those for the underlying form of payment and not be specific to the technology”
Mobile technology and practices are just emerging and “the government should not impose regulations that would forestall yet-to-be-imagined advances and innovation in order to avoid potential harm based largely on speculation”
Mobile phones are “just a device, not a payment” and that “actual payment could take place via a credit or debit card, directly from a bank account, be processed through the user’s phone bill”

The National Retail Federation is the largest retail trade association in the world, and here they are telling the U.S. government and the rest of us to let mobile payments emerge and happen the way the market will have it. To me, that is an encouraging message to any would be player in the mobile payments ecosystem both NFC-based or cloud-based. Retailers want the market to slug it out.

Regulation is the enemy of innovation. For mobile payments to have any chance, they must evolve as dictated by the marketplace. The NRF is right – there are plenty of regulations in place for the payment industry as it stands and no need at this point to make any distinction about what device is used to make payments. We stand a chance of mobile payments succeeding in the U.S. if the FTC stays on the sideline.

So does that mean the European Commission isn’t interested in letting the free market create innovation in the mobile payments space with their probe of Project Oscar? Will consumers be harmed in these early days? It will be interesting to see if the FTC stays out of it. I hope they do, or we can kiss mobile payments goodbye.

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Samsung Galaxy S3 News, Rumors, and a Release Date

Apr 27, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​The hotly anticipated Samsung Galaxy S3 will be launched on May 3 at Earls Court (exhibition center) in London. The new smartphone has generated quite a stir in the mobile industry after the great success of Samsung's last model, the Galaxy S2. Many people believe the S3 will only have a few minor adjustments and upgrades from S2; however, opinions differ greatly. In this ABI Insight, let's looks at some of the news and rumors about this new smartphone.

Speculation about the latest Samsung Galaxy 3 has spread far and wide. Let's run through a few bits of the juicy gossip:
  • The screen size is anticipated to increase from the SII's 4.3-inch screen to between 4.6 and 4.8 inches and using HD in 1080p. Additionally, the screen's pixel density is projected to increase from the S2's 217 pixels per inch (PPI) to 312 PPI.
  • People in the 4.6 inch-screen camp believe that the overall device size may not increase. Instead, they assume that Samsung will introduce an "edgeless" design.
  • The new smartphone will have a ceramic or metal case (possibly a brushed blue metal) instead of a plastic case.
  • It's generally anticipated the primary camera will increase from 8 megapixels to 12 or 16 megapixels. Not so clear is whether the front facing camera will increase from 1.3 megapixels to 2 megapixels.
  • Speculation about wireless charging and a stylus for sketching and handwriting similar to the one on the Samsung Galaxy Note has been bounced around, but I am unsure on these features. I think Samsung may want to try and keep some differentiating features between the Note and the latest Galaxy.
  • Delving into the hardware specifications, speculation is that the new smartphone will contain a quad-core processor. The HTC One X, LG Optimus 4X HD, and Huawei Ascend D1 all have quad-core processors and Samsung will receive significant criticism if its new S3 doesn't have the same processing performance.
  • Afrequently mentioned feature is contactless payment technology (NFC). The Samsung Galaxy S3 will be the official London Olympic phone and the company will be making phones for the Olympics. Visa, another partner for the London games, has been seriously pushing contactless payment on consumers. Could this also be an opportunity to highlight NFC's ability to link and log into locations and tags?

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HTC Q1 2012 Results

Apr 26, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​HTC’s total revenues for Q1 2012 were $2.3 billion (67.8 billion New Taiwan Dollars), dropping by 33.2% from the previous quarter, and declining 34.9% from Q1 2011. The Taiwanese company’s gross margin was 25.03% and operating margin 7.53%; again, both financial ratios declined from the previous quarters by 2.09% and 5.18%, respectively. Additionally, HTC’s market share in the US has suffered greatly at the hands of Apple’s iPhone 4S and HTC’s CEO, Peter Chou, believes it will be impossible for HTC to dominate the US market in the near-term future.

HTC have stated several reasons for its revenue declines. First, the company is transitioning between different product cycles. Second, it has changed its strategy focus from Q1 2011 due to the rapidly changing competitive environment and this has also affected it operations and thus revenues. Chou also mentioned a number of errors in HTC’s strategic leadership, however, he declined to clarify during the Q1 2012 financial quarter call, where and who were making these mistakes. A major concern for HTC is its profit margins, although revenues fell by 35% from last year’s previous quarter, the company’s net income after tax dropped by 70%. HTC is projecting to generate $3.5 billion (105 billion New Taiwan Dollars) in the next quarter and its gross margin and operating margin should be approximately 27% and 11%, respectively.

HTC released its new One series in February atMobile World Congress, and so far, the new smartphone has received a number of positive reviews. The new model follows on from the HTC Sensation services. The HTC One X has a 4.7 inch touch screen display and contains quite a lot of impressive kit, including a 1.5 GHz quad processor. ABI Research recently included it in a recent reporton hybrid smartphones/tablets and super smartphones. The HTC One series will be released in China this week and the firm also released the HTC J in Japan via the Japanese network carrier, KDDI.

Interestingly, HTC declared, during its financial Q1 2012 call, that it would still place equal focus and effort on Google’s Android and Microsoft’s Windows Phone operating system. Peter Chou believes HTC has had a long and special relationship with Microsoft and the new Windows Phone 8 is going to present a very good opportunity for HTC. This may sound very strange considering the increasing popularity of Google’s mobile operating systems globally; however, I suppose these are the types of statements CEOs need to make to keep both firms happy.

Examining HTC’s revenues by region, the Americas, EMEA, and Asia each accounted for a third of the company’s revenues. HTC doesn’t expect to gain much traction back in the North America market which is heavily dominated by Apple’s iPhone. EMEA holds a little bit of growth potential but not too much. HTC expects to see the majority of its growth generated from Asia, or more specifically China. One of the major beliefs within HTC is that its brand is well understood in China. Also, Chinese consumers appreciate the designs and craftsmanship of HTC phones. Nevertheless, Mr. Chou was quick to emphasize all HTC’s regional markets were of equal importance.
My conclusion for HTC is that 2012 will be tough and challenging year. As HTC have seen in the past year, the smartphone competitive environment is very dynamic and tough. HTC’s budget for marketing and sales has been abnormally high compared to its revenues; however, I believe this will be the norm for HTC in the future. Additionally, HTC is placing enormous faith in the China smartphone market. I believe a major obstacle could be its pricing. HTC’s lowest price smartphone in China is $1,999 RB ($317). Apple has now released the iPhone 4 for $99.

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T-Mobile, Galaxy S, Ice Cream Sandwich and Upgrades

Apr 26, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​I’ve been a happy user of a Samsung Galaxy S phone since 10/19/12 (or so T-Mobile tells me). I’m a heavy and regular user of productivity apps, including Gmail, Outlook, Google Reader, the web browser, and Google Maps. I’ve had my share of fun with some games, including Angry Birds, Doodle Jump, Plants vs. Zombies and even Drag Racing (why, I don’t know). My kids (3 & 5) love to pry it from my hands to watch the Cat in the Hat, color with Zebra Paint, do puzzles, play Chuzzle, etc. As a TV & Video analyst, I’ve tested and/or used a number of video applications on my phone, including Netflix, HBO Go (far and away the best UI and experience), Cox Connect to program my mom’s DVR (ugh! In so many ways) as well as sideloaded some movies from DVD and/or Digital Copy onto it – not to mention watching the pre-installed Avatar on it while stuck in the car for too long.

I just read that Ice Cream Sandwich won’t be supported on my phone . While I understand the need to have more recent specs to get a more recent OS, and the device fragmentation that exists within the ecosystem, it seems that if operators are trying to decrease the financial impact of phone subsidies on their business, they should be upgrading as many phones as possible.

Now, there is absolutely nothing I need about Ice Cream Sandwich. Sure, some of the improved UI might take a few less keystrokes to do some common things. But all in all, the biggest thing I’d want out of a new phone is a faster processor (my phone gets laggy in processing keypresses if I’ve been doing too much on it and/or haven’t rebooted it in a few days) as well as 4G speeds (for tethering and responsiveness when loading up the news). So -- T-Mobile tells me that I’ll soon (4 months) be eligible for the “lowest upgrade price” on new phones – having had my phone for 22 months. The only thing more frustrating that a 2 year wait for a new phone with all the whiz-bang features is waiting for a refresh on your Cable DVR – that’s totally out of your control!

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