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Emerging Market Telcos

Aug 12, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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In 10 years’ time the mobile cellular ownership landscape could look very different from today, where telcos from Emerging Markets such as China, India and Indonesia, extend their clout beyond their continental boundaries and invest/purchase telcos, not just in other Emerging Markets, but also Developed markets.

Could it be that Emerging Market telcos, sustained by the strong growth in their underlying economies, burgeoning middle class with disposable income to spend, purchase stakes in Developed market telcos with strong cash-flow but constrained growth prospects? Many Developed Market telcos will have market capitalizations that are eclipsed by telcos from Emerging Markets.
Impossible? We just have to look to other very mature industrial sectors such as the automotive industry. Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. (China) owns Rover, Nanjing Automotive (Group) Corp. (China) owns MG, while Jaguar is owned by Tata Motors (india). Other examples can be found in the steel industry.

Certainly those Developed Market telcos that have secured Emerging Market assets may be able to ride out the changing landscape, although some of their Developed Market Assets are currently looking very poorly (ABI Insight: Vodafone Group – Should It Dispose of Europe or Verizon Wireless? ). Just look at the last 10 years to see how much the telecoms world has changed.
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Is China Mobile Abandoning TD-SCDMA?

Aug 9, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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I recently wrote an ABI Research Insight titled, "Is China Mobile Abandoning TD-SCDMA?" Certainly it has been rather quiet on the TD-SCDMA front. So when China Mobile's purported statement that it was sourcing TD-LTE handsetsfrom Huawei and Nokia based on WindowsPhonesmartphone technology, it would raise someeyebrows.

China Mobile may be putting its resources together to hit the ground running with TD-LTE, once it is given official permission to commercially launch the service, but TD-SCDMA will not be sidelined. In the meantime, TD-SCDMA is steadily percolating away. We estimate almost 10 million TD-SCDMA subs were added to the installed base of 59.5 million in 1Q-2012. That may be only 10% of China Mobile's total subscriber base, but it is definitely growing. ​

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Digidev takes the content owner’s side in the OTT wars

Aug 7, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​ Most OTT companies have a decidedly technology focus. They spend all their time thinking about what the latest and greatest technologies are, how to get content to every screen, and how to solve all the technology problems. Even companies such as MobiTV, that once made content licensing a significant part of their business (both through their branded MobiTV service as well as on behalf of some of their mobile operator customers) has taken a step back and is looking at their platform as a technology license.

Digidev, a new company led by Martin Greenwald, who led Image Entertainment (which brought independent DVDs to market), and Joe Q. Bretz (a film producer with a strong technology background) is taking the opposite approach: First meet the needs of content owners, and then worry about the technology. Digidev, with its strong Hollywood connections, is teaming up with independent libraries (often between 500 – 2000 hours of content) to create individually branded channels based on the library title. Digidev will ingest the content from any source (with its in house post-production house), and own publication of content worldwide across all OTT platforms. Licensing agreements vary depending on who owns the production costs, but digidev’s distribution fees range from 50% on up.

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Apple Not a Trailblazer for New Technologies, Hence Do Not Expect NFC in the New iPhone

Aug 1, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The question on everyone’s lips – at least in the NFC world - is will the new iPhone feature NFC?

It’s a tricky one to call, if it will have NFC in then it really does seem to be top secret as I have heard nothing indicating that anyone is involved. For this reason I am doubtful. Whilst my feeling was that it could well have NFC due to the staff recruited in related positions and the previous patents applied for I am less certain now.

In the meantime, a lot is being spoken of NFC being included in the iPhone but I feel that much of this is in hope rather than expectation. I am seeing the slower than expected adoption of NFC impacting companies, with stories circulating around the future of ViVOtech, and NFC IC market leaders NXP and Inside Secure's latestreported figures showing widening losses. Talking up Apple'sadoption of NFC is one way of off-setting this, at least in the short term.

Apple is certainly changing its use of wireless connectivity; it has got behindBluetooth 4.0but I see that as serving a different purpose to NFC. There is current discussion around Apple changing the connector design and I have wondered if this might be related to NFC. NFC could be the initial means of connection but I think that perhaps it will be more likely to relate to using BT 4.0 to connect and stream data and media to peripherals and other devices around the home.

So I can see both sides of the coin – but if I had to put money down it would be in the “no” camp.

However, I believe that if New iPhone does have NFC then it will not be one supporting payments. Other OEMs have been using NFC tags and MNOs are building wallets with other capabilities, such as loyalty (rather than NFC payments) and I do not think that Apple will blaze the trail – if you look at its history it generally re-designs technologies/features rather than being a first adopter.

The only thing for certain is that there will be much more discussion over the next six weeks until this most secretive of companies unveils its new product(s).​

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India to receive Android Jelly Bean tablet

Aug 1, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​Interested in acquiring a tablet that has Android 4.1 (aka Jelly Bean) OS preloaded? If you don’t happen to live in a market where Google is rolling out its Nexus 7 tablet, you do have an alternative in India. Karbonn Mobiles announced it is now offering the world's lowest-cost Android Jelly Bean tablet. Powered by an Ingenic JZ4770 1.2 GHz SoC running on MIPS architecture, the Karbonn Smart Tab 1 tablet is now available to consumers.

Priced at Rs. 6999 (approximately US$125), the tablet will be available via the Karbonn website, as well as numerous online portals and retail outlets in India such as Reliance Digital and Walmart.

The Indian media tablet market is estimated to grow with a CAGR of 71% from 2011 to 2017, according to a report we issued recently. This is an important year for media tablets in India as an increasing number of models designed for the India market become available at different price tiers.

As the pool of available tablets broadens in India, keys to tablet vendor success will be localized content, seamless connectivity, and providing an enhanced user experience. If the device is only available in English language, and applications are not addressing popular cultural interests such as Indian Premier League cricket, Bollywood, and trusted family recipes, consider the tablet a non-starter.

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Vendors Getting Busy Managing the Data Tsunami

Jul 23, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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In late 2Q-2012, I attended a jointed Nokia-Siemens Network/LG U+ LTE demo and briefing in South Korea. It would be hard to deny it was impressive. In downtown Seoul, with a LTE-capable handset from LG we were able to achieve download speeds of 32 MBps and upload speeds of 17 MBps. In a more secluded part of the city, under a Nokia-Siemens Networks engineered base-station, we were able to achieve download speeds of 62 MBps and upload speeds of 32 MBps. And all on a regular handset.

Is this going overboard with the data throughput? Will anyone use it? Most definitely they will, as the increased data throughput will transform the habits of the smartphone user. In Seoul, on the LTE connection, Korean end-users were regularly “snacking” on HD video clips of their favourite soap operas, business and entertainment news, and gaming. With such a hyper fast connection, end-users could browse, select and on hop onto a video download or stream virtually instantaneously… anywhere in the clip.
But what about the tsunami wave of data? Is it about to swamp the LTE operators?

http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1013294
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Betting Big On LTE In Korea

Jul 23, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Korea’s LG U+, like SKT and KT, is betting big in Korea. All three operators have very aggressive plans to roll out LTE. Deployment of LTE started in July 2011 and 65,000 base-stations later, U+ has raised LTE pops coverage to 99% of the population. The base-station density is remarkable and the turn-around time is impressive… but why the aggressive roll-out?

Certainly U+ wanted to make sure it had the coverage in place to offer High Definition video streams that could be accessed in real-time. LTE is essential as U+ reported that HDTV users generate 4.9GB in traffic compared to non-HD TV users which generate 1.6 GB in traffic. The operator is also very keen to commercially launch Voice over LTE by October 2012.
These are all impressive financial metrics but the CEO of U+, Sangchul Lee, acknowledges that these “benefits” would be ephemeral if a structural redirection of their operations is also not realized. This is already in evidence with 3G. When 3G was first introduced, ARPUs were boosted substantially but the delta soon dissipated as end users started accessing regular WWW web sites and content on their smartphones.
However, Sangchul Lee, firmly believes LTE does provide operators a chance to get back into the driving seat in its relationship with the customer. What does the CEO of U+ believe is the lever to turn around the long term fortunes of the operators? Contextual knowledge & personalization. U+ states the operator is in a position to intensively “know” the customer.

Excerpted from ABI Insight… http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1013298
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Telecom Regulation: Spectrum Mortgage

Jul 20, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) recommended spectrum mortgage and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has sanctioned it.

The impact considered thus far has been limited to mobile carriers’ ability to raise capital. After the 2G spectrum scam, financial institutions have ceased supplying funds to telcos; meanwhile, the proposed reserve price per megahertz of pan-India spectrum in the upcoming auction is 10 times higher than what was paid in 2008. By allowing spectrum to be treated as a tangible asset, RBI permits operators to tap the valuable resource as collateral to secure credit.

However, there are other policy considerations, including the potential implications on productive efficiency, government receipts, competition and cellular penetration. These unexamined issues are explored in our recently published ABI Insight​.
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Samsing Buys CSR Wireless Technology Unit for $310 million

Jul 17, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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Today,CSR announced a conditional agreement to transfer development operations in handset connectivity and location to Samsung for $310 million, with a further $34.4 million invested in CSR.

"Under the terms of the agreement, Samsung will gain full access to CSR’s mobile connectivity and location technology and transfer certain relevant patents, as well as employ over 300 CSR employees in the selected field for the cash consideration of $310 million. In addition, Samsung will receive perpetual rights to CSR’s intellectual property related to connectivity and location technology such as Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and GPS reinforcing Samsung’s leadership in mobile component solutions". This suggests it has as much to do with patent wars as acquiring new technology capabilities.

From alocation point of view, CSR has stated that it plans to focus on 5 core areas, one of which is indoor location. Note, this is not location or GPS but simplyindoor location. It will discontinue investment in its handset connectivity and location technology. Earlier this year, it announcedplans to offer indoor Location as a Service (Laas). This highlights the importance of indoor (http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1012544) and suggests CSR might have something pretty special planned in this area.

On Samsung's side, GPS/connectivity was a hole in itshandset platform business that has now been filled nicely by CSR.

CSR plans toissue $285 million as dividend to its shareholders, which should help to boost its lagging share price.

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Nokia Lumia 900

Jul 16, 2012 12:00:00 AM / by Admin

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​After attending a recent Nokia analyst event, the marketing folks at the company kindly allowed me to trial its new Nokia Lumia 900. The smartphone attracted significant attention at its unveiling at Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2012 and it won the Best Smartphone award. Nokia's latest smartphone, Lumia 900, was released in the United States and Canada in April, 2012, and costs approximately $450.

The smartphone's design is pretty sleek and smart. The device is available in black, white, or cyan (mine is black and I must admit it looks good). The Lumia 900 has a uni-polycarbonate body and this simply means the handset is a single piece casing (no removable back cover). This means you can't get at the phone's battery and you access the SIM card by pressing a special Nokia key into the top of the smartphone.
The device's dimensions are 128mm (5 inches) in length, 69mm (2.7 inches) across, and 12mm (0.45 inches) deep, and weighs approximately 160 grams. The smartphone has a 4.3 inch touchscreen display with 217 pixels per inch (PPI). The Lumia 900 runs Windows Phone 7.5 Mango as its operating system. Unfortunately, the smartphone will not be able to be updated to Microsoft's soon to be released Windows Phone 8. The device has an 8 megapixel main-camera and 1 megapixel front-facing camera. Finally, the smartphone uses a 1.4 GHz Qualcomm Snapdragon S2 processor and 16 GB memory.

Conclusions from different mobile operating system users:

An Android user's perspective:

  • As a proud owner of a Samsung Galaxy SII (Android) smartphone, I was initially reluctant to swap to the Nokia Lumia 900 as my primary phone. I found the main menu format unfulfilling as I had probably gotten used to swiping left/right rather than scrolling down for my phone's functions. Nevertheless, after some quick modifications and application re-adjustment, I began to like the smartphone. The design is very sleek and there is a solid feel to the smartphone compared to my SII. Additionally, the graphics are very impressive and the smartphone easily handles multiple applications at once. This was a real bugbear for me with my old smartphone, particularly when I was browsing the Internet and listening to music simultaneously. There are some neat typing functions on the Lumia compared to my Android. Pretty simple stuff, such as a comma button on the same screen as the alphabet. Also, it automatically switches back to the alphabet screen after a symbol is pressed. Simple but time-efficient. Additionally, the battery life seems to be a lot better than my SII's and the device can easily last over a day of making calls, texting, web-browsing, and listening to music without needing a charge. My main complaint about the device is its inability to do "contact transfers" functions with my old Android smartphone. Furthermore, the Nokia marketplace is missing some seriously important apps: BBC iPlayer, Strava (cycling), The Times, and National Rail. Sorry for the strong UK bias here.

An iPhone user's perspective:

  • I found the device to be quite difficult to hold and it is heavy. I still prefer the iPhones compact size which is ideal for a device that at the end of the day is a phone, not a tablet. Nevertheless, I understand the advantage of a larger screen for typing and it is easier to do so than on my iPhone. Concerning the overall shape and design of the smartphone: I think it looks good, although I would prefer an on/off button on the bottom or top of the device like the iPhone. The side button makes it more likely to mistakenly switch the device on and call someone while in my pocket. Examining the user interface, I think older people will find it harder to use the Windows Phone operating system (OS) compared to Apple and Android. iOS is a lot simpler to use. Additionally, it's easier to switch between applications on my iPhone 4S than the Lumia 900, making multi-tasking a breeze. Two more annoyances I have with the Nokia Lumia 900: the Windows app store is too crowded. Apple's app store is more orderly and the layout is neat. Also, why is the font size on the top of the Windows Phone app store so BIG! The Internet Explorer browser is eons behind Safari or the new Chrome IOS. Tabs are difficult to get to and opening a new tab is tedious. Also, I hate the fact that Bing is the default search engine. Overall, I feel the Nokia Lumia 900 is trying too hard to be a smartphone. I don't particularly like the tiles that keep swiping in and out. I prefer the simplicity of Apple iPhone's interface, which lets me do what I want quickly and efficiently, and leaves out fancy UI gibberish.

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