As the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) continues to rise, charging rates must accelerate to incentivize consumers to make a purchase. This resource reviews some key EV charging infrastructure forecasts, challenges in accelerating EV charging, and potential solutions to make it possible.
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As the adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) continues to rise, charging rates must accelerate to incentivize consumers to make a purchase. This resource reviews some key EV charging infrastructure forecasts, challenges in accelerating EV charging, and potential solutions to make it possible.
Market Overview
For mass Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption to work, the world needs enough charging infrastructure for drivers to power up their vehicles. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are responding by building widespread charging stations, often with ultra-fast charging capabilities.
ABI Research forecasts that the number of public EV charging points will increase from 5.8 million in 2024 to nearly 29 million by 2034. Most of these charging points will be Alternating Current (AC) power.
However, fast charging is a big requirement to incentivize consumers to purchase EVs, making Direct Current (DC) charging points a key focus area for OEMs. More than two-thirds of DC EV charging points will be fast DC (51 Kilowatts (kW) to 349 kW). Ultra-fast charging is more nascent, although growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 28.43%.
Regionally speaking, cities like Shenzhen, China, make Asia-Pacific the leading market for public EV charging points (20.6 million charging points by 2034). Western Europe (5.4 million) and North America (2.4 million) are second and third.
“ABI Research expects the trend of charging speeds varying greatly by OEM and model to continue. This decade, most mass market EVs will likely have peak charging speeds around 200 kW; this is sufficient to have a minimal impact on trip duration for long drives. Premium EVs and large cars such as pickup trucks and some Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) will be able to charge up to around 400 kW, primarily as a differentiating feature for high-end brands.” – Dylan Khoo, Industry Analyst at ABI Research
Key Decision Items
Understand the Limiting Factors to EV Charging Speeds
The three main constraints to faster EV charging include the electric grid, the EV charger, and the vehicle battery.
- The Grid: Increased EV adoption poses grid capacity challenges, particularly at local distribution levels where existing infrastructure may be insufficient for even a single high-power Direct Current Fast Charger (DCFC).
- The Charger: High-power EV chargers, such as 350 kW DCFCs, are considerably more expensive than lower-power alternatives. They can cost up to 5X more than 50 kW chargers, reaching up to US$150,000.
- The Battery: The maximum charging rate of EV batteries presents a technical challenge for increasing charging speeds, with developments in battery technology dictating the maximum power of EV chargers and necessitating grid upgrades.
OEMs Building Out Ultra-Fast Charging Points
Most EVs in use today cannot even leverage the full benefits of the fastest DCFCs, with cars like the Lucid Air, Porsche Taycon, and Audi e-tron GT not surpassing 270 kW to 300 kW. Mass-market EVs such as Tesla and Hyundai vehicles typically achieve roughly 250 Kw. Despite this, OEMs continue building ultra-fast charging points capable of 350+ kW charging.
OEMs like BMW, General Motors (GM), Mercedes-Benz, Ford, and Volkswagen (VW) are building out DCFCs to prepare for the future. In the future, consumer EVs will be able to take advantage of DCFC infrastructure, which will enhance the user experience. While consumer-grade EVs will not achieve 350+ kW charging rates anytime soon, OEMs do not want to be caught off-guard. Installing the necessary infrastructure now will ensure there is an incentive for consumers to purchase their EVs later.
The Crucial Role of Battery Management Systems
The Battery Management System (BMS) is crucial for EV charging, overseeing battery functions to prevent overcharging, overheating, and damage. It safeguards against degradation risks like metal lithium plating and dendrite formation, ensuring battery safety and longevity.
Safety is paramount during charging, with the BMS prioritizing caution to mitigate degradation and fire risks. Enhanced sensor technology and intelligent BMS designs can minimize safety margins, enabling faster charging rates while maintaining battery health.
Battery Buffers Alleviate Grid Constraints
The peak power draw of EV chargers determines the local grid's required capacity. Implementing a battery buffer can mitigate peak power demands, reducing grid upgrade costs and access charges. For instance, using a buffer allows for the spread of a 100 kWh charge over 5 hours, limiting the power draw to 20 kW. This significantly reduces infrastructure expenses compared to a direct draw from the grid.
Key Market Players to Watch
Dig Deeper for the Full Picture
For a richer understanding of the importance of EV charging rates and how novel technologies can improve charging rates, download ABI Research’s Accelerating EV Charging Rates report. This analysis pinpoints the current and future outlook for EV charging infrastructure/equipment and identifies key forecasts relating to public charging points. Download the report today.
This content is part of our Vehicle Charging Technologies Research Spotlight.
Vehicle Charging Technologies
