New Ridesharing Economy in Need of Reality Check as Robotic Taxis Threaten Its Long-Term Growth

image
Global Ridesharing Bookings Still Forecast to Exceed $100 Billion by 2020
06 Sep 2016

The new ridesharing economy continues to beat expectations as ABI Research forecasts global bookings to exceed $100 billion by 2020 and $300 billion by 2030 at an average growth rate of 18%. But the transportation industry may be in need of a reality check. Many car OEMs are now aiming to gain back control of the future automotive landscape through advancements in driverless car technology. This will enable driverless taxis to overpower ridesharing in the long-term.

“There is no doubt that the ridesharing ecosystem will mature, with Chinese ride-hailing service Didi Chuxing merging operations with Uber in the region and Uber reaching an incredible milestone of two billion rides this past June,” says Dominique Bonte, Managing Director and Vice President at ABI Research. “Yet, however promising this new car sharing economy looks, its growth will eventually slow.”

Big brands and niche startups like Opel’s CarUnity and carpooling operations like BlaBlaCar and Scoop Technologies, in which BMW i Ventures recently invested, are currently thriving. But ABI Research finds ridesharing growth will slow as it becomes more challenging to recruit users. Its business model of aggressive marketing and subsidized driver recruitment resulting in huge losses, as well as fundamental cost structure limitations, will prevent ridesharing from scaling into a mainstream use case and, as a result, fail to lead to a significant decline in car ownership.

To adapt to the changing competitive landscape, many car OEMs recently announced partnerships and/or investments in ridesharing brands, as evident with GM’s and Toyota’s intentions to partner with and invest in Lyft and Uber, respectively. Some OEMs, like Ford and Tesla, announced plans to set up their own driverless taxi fleets, both to compete with ridesharing services like Uber and allow driverless car owners to engage in community sharing.

“Unsurprising, Didi Chuxing and Uber are also exploring driverless taxis,” concludes Bonte. “Driverless technology will allow the car sharing paradigm to maintain growth levels beyond 2025. Other initiatives to support this economy include driverless shuttle and taxi trials by Delphi, Navya, and nuTonomy in Singapore and Japan’s plan to deploy driverless robot taxis during the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.”  

These findings are from ABI Research’s ITS Market Data. This report is part of the company’s Automotive, Smart Mobility & Transportation and Enterprise IT & OT Convergence sectors, which include research, data, and analyst insights.

About ABI Research

ABI Research is a global technology intelligence firm delivering actionable research and strategic guidance to technology leaders, innovators, and decision makers around the world. Our research focuses on the transformative technologies that are dramatically reshaping industries, economies, and workforces today.

ABI Research提供开创性的研究和战略指导,帮助客户了解日新月异的技术。 自1990年以来,我们已与全球数百个领先的技术品牌,尖端公司,具有远见的政府机构以及创新的贸易团体建立了合作关系。 我们帮助客户创造真实的业务成果。

For more information about ABI Research’s services, contact us at +1.516.624.2500 in the Americas, +44.203.326.0140 in Europe, +65.6592.0290 in Asia-Pacific, or visit www.abiresearch.com.

Contact ABI Research

Media Contacts

Americas: +1.516.624.2542
Europe: +44.(0).203.326.0142
Asia: +65 6950.5670

Related Service