London, United Kingdom - 21 May 2019
In the wake of softening growth in other primary smart card areas, most notably SIM cards, payment card issuance continues its upward growth trajectory. Despite near ubiquitous global uptake of the EMV standard, several factors are stimulating the payment cards market such as new banking clients, increasing wealth in developing areas, and contactless migration. Other factors include new innovations in card form factors, such as metal cards, and powered payment cards that incorporate biometric sensor technology. The net effect is driving EMV payment card issuance from 3.18 billion in 2019 to over 3.75 billion by 2023, according to ABI Research, a market-foresight advisory firm providing strategic guidance on the most compelling transformative technologies.
Interestingly, between 2017 and 2018, there was a significant slowdown in contactless migration, driven by stagnation in the key contactless market, China. However, other regional markets are set to reverse the decline in 2019.
“A significant push by the Reserve Bank of India, such as the release of contactless tokenization guidelines, and India’s Finance Ministry advising banks and financial institutions to begin issuing contactless-enabled credit and debit cards have already paid dividends. The Indian market reacted well, particularly in Q4 2018, where it was estimated that near 10 percent of all cards issued were of the contactless variety,” explained Phil Sealy, Research Director at ABI Research.
For the United States, the “Chase effect” (referring to other issuers following Chase’s lead in contactless migration) is now in full swing. This momentum is expected to continue, with U.S. issuers likely adopting a targeted migration approach by selecting parts of their respective portfolios for contactless migration and/or adopting a regional approach heavily linked to cities. For instance, in New York, contactless card marketing is being timed with transit system migration accepting open-loop payment credentials.
ABI Research forecasts that contactless issuance in the United States and India combined will grow from 200 million in 2019 to 609 million in 2023. “Despite the positivity’s of ongoing migration to contactless cards, continued ASP degradation in the traditional market is hitting vendor bottom lines. This is causing a shift in strategy toward the development of higher-value propositions to help counter reducing margins,” Sealy said. Leading ecosystem players including Gemalto, IDEMIA, G+D, CompoSecure, Fingerprint Cards, IDEX Biometrics, Kona, Linxens, NXP, Infineon, STMicro, Precise Biometrics, and Next Biometrics already have solutions and products in place to take advantage of this next-generation revenue/margin opportunity.
Metal cards and biometric payment cards continue to gain momentum. Metal cards are already shipping in the millions within the U.S and the Middle East. The announcement by Fingerprint Cards’ in March 2019 for its first large-scale order of a few hundred thousand flexible sensors is another sign supporting continued biometric card growth. “Form factor innovation is just one example of card supplier strategies pivoting from market share maintenance/growth towards the supply of high- value cards to help improve otherwise declining margins,” Sealy concluded.
These findings are from ABI Research’s Payment & Banking Card Technologies market data report and Payment & Banking Card Secure IC Technologies market data report. These reports are part of the company’s Digital Security research service, which includes research, data, and Executive Foresights. Market Data spreadsheets are composed of deep data, market share analysis, and highly segmented, service-specific forecasts to provide detailed insight where opportunities lie.
About ABI Research
ABI Research provides strategic guidance for visionaries needing market foresight on the most compelling transformative technologies, which reshape workforces, identify holes in a market, create new business models and drive new revenue streams. ABI’s own research visionaries take stances early on those technologies, publishing groundbreaking studies often years ahead of other technology advisory firms. ABI analysts deliver their conclusions and recommendations in easily and quickly absorbed formats to ensure proper context. Our analysts strategically guide visionaries to take action now and inspire their business to realize a bigger picture. For more information about subscribing to ABI’s Research Services as well as Industrial and Custom Solutions, visionaries can contact us at +1.516.624.2500 in the Americas, +44.203.326.0140 in Europe, +65.6592.0290 in Asia-Pacific or visit www.abiresearch.com.
About ABI Research
ABI Research provides strategic guidance to visionaries, delivering actionable intelligence on the transformative technologies that are dramatically reshaping industries, economies, and workforces across the world. ABI Research's global team of analysts publish groundbreaking studies often years ahead of other technology advisory firms, empowering our clients to stay ahead of their markets and their competitors.
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