Google Wallet and Apple Will Force MNO Cooperation in Mobile Wallet Wars

Oyster Bay, New York - 23 Nov 2011

​Mobile wallets are coming, and while MNOs will provide the majority of NFC-based mobile wallets, their market share will erode between 2012 and 2016 as Google and Apple claim loyal users. “By the end of 2012, Google will prove that Google Wallet is a hit with consumers. By 2014, we will see Google Wallets supported alongside competing MNO offerings globally,” says Mark Beccue, senior analyst, mobile commerce and NFC. MNOs will provide 75% of all mobile wallets in 2012, shrinking to 63% in 2016. 

Google Wallet will also succeed in markets where MNOs prefer not to spend capital to develop and support mobile wallet infrastructure. These MNOs will partner with Google and will benefit financially from the ventures. Apple will factor into the erosion of MNO mobile wallet market share.  “Apple will launch a mobile wallet product in 2012. Apple’s MNO partners will allow Apple to offer their mobile wallet to consumers who have iPhones, regardless of whether or not the MNO has a competing mobile wallet,” says Beccue.

NFC-based mobile wallet users will grow to 594 million in 2016. Growth will be fueled because 1) MNOs and OS players will flood the marketplace with NFC-capable mobile phones, particularly in the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Korea and 2) the business cases around merchant offers and interaction are compelling enough to pull mobile wallet ecosystem players in alignment.

Over-the-top (OTT) mobile wallet providers (banks, payment providers, merchants) will have a difficult time establishing critical mass for their offerings, though they will find success for niche purposes. By as early as 2014, MNOs will incorporate OS and OTT mobile wallets into their umbrella mobile wallets, slowing down the growth of truly independent mobile wallets from OS and OTT providers.

ABI Research’s new study, “Mobile Wallet Strategies,” forecasts active NFC mobile wallet users, mobile couponing, and mobile loyalty/reward adoption by region and provides a detailed analysis of mobile wallet providers.

It forms part of the firm’s Mobile Money & NFC Research Service.

ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research’s worldwide team of experts advises thousands of decision makers through 40+ research and advisory services. Est. 1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.

About ABI Research

ABI Research provides strategic guidance to visionaries, delivering actionable intelligence on the transformative technologies that are dramatically reshaping industries, economies, and workforces across the world. ABI Research's global team of analysts publish groundbreaking studies often years ahead of other technology advisory firms, empowering our clients to stay ahead of their markets and their competitors.

ABI Research提供开创性的研究和战略指导,帮助客户了解日新月异的技术。 自1990年以来,我们已与全球数百个领先的技术品牌,尖端公司,具有远见的政府机构以及创新的贸易团体建立了合作关系。 我们帮助客户创造真实的业务成果。

For more information about ABI Research's services, contact us at +1.516.624.2500 in the Americas, +44.203.326.0140 in Europe, +65.6592.0290 in Asia-Pacific or visit www.abiresearch.com.

Contact ABI Research

Media: Interview an Analyst

Media Contacts

Americas: +1.516.624.2542
Europe: +44.(0).203.326.0142
Asia: +65 6950.5670