Tech Trends That WON’T Happen in 2022: The Metaverse, Mainstream Companion Robots, Edge Computing Boom, or New Vehicle Sales Bounce Back - to Name a Few

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ABI Research’s 2022 Trend Report identifies the 35 key technology trends that will deliver in 2022 – and the 35 that won’t
16 Dec 2021

As 2022 kicks off, predictions abound on the technology advancements and innovations expected in the year ahead. However, several highly anticipated advancements, including the metaverse, mainstream companion robots, a boom in edge computing, and a bounce back in new vehicle sales will NOT happen in 2022, states global technology intelligence firm, ABI Research.

In its new whitepaper, 70 Technology Trends That Will—and Will Not—Shape 2022, ABI Research analysts identify 35 trends that will shape the technology market and 35 others that, although attracting huge amounts of speculation and commentary, are less likely to move the needle over the next twelve months. “The fallout from COVID-19 prevention measures, the process of transitioning from pandemic to endemic disease, and global political tensions weigh heavily on the coming year’s fortunes. This whitepaper is a tool for our readers to help shape their understanding of the key critical trends that look set to materialize in 2022 as the world begins to emerge from the shadow of COVID-19. It also highlights those much-vaunted trends that are less likely to have meaningful impact in 2022,” says Stuart Carlaw, Chief Research Officer at ABI Research.

What won’t happen in 2022?

The Metaverse Will Not Arrive Fully Formed

Despite all the headlines and investments, the metaverse will not arrive in 2022 or, for that matter, within the typical 5-year forecast window. The metaverse is still more of a buzzword and vision than a fully-fledged end goal with a defined arrival date. What we have today is a number of tech companies building their version of a “metaverse,” but this multiverse is not fully interconnected, does not yet widely employ open standards, and certainly has not fully embraced Extended Reality (XR)—all tenets of the metaverse vision (some would also add the crypto economy to the list, which is also not in place).

The Exponential Boom in Edge Computing Will Not Come to Fruition

Edge computing, both Mobile-Access Edge Computing (MEC), and general edge computing, will continue to increase in deployment numbers. However, the deployments in 2022 will be mostly critical ones made by early adopters—not the start of the boom that had been anticipated. Edge computing use cases and financial viability are tightly coupled to 5G cellular networks, both public and private. The availability of affordable 5G services on which edge computing will thrive is not yet a global reality. As a result, edge computing adoption will be slower than anticipated.

Companion Robotics Will Not Go Mainstream

After several years of leading social robotics companies either shutting up shop or withdrawing their commercial offerings, 2021 saw renewed investment and focus on the market and its potential.  Amazon’s launch of its first social robot, the Astro, certainly sparked a great deal of attention. However, despite the enormous potential for social/companion robotics, 2022 will not be the breakout year the industry is hoping for, despite the scale, pricing, and awareness that a player like Amazon can bring to an emerging technology market.

New Vehicle Sales Will Not Bounce Back

The automotive supply chain remains unable to meet pent-up demand, thanks to the shortage of critical semiconductors. A reliance on outdated semiconductor process technologies with limited production capacity, proprietary designs, and an opaque demand-signaling process has prolonged the semiconductor crisis in the automotive sector. There are no quick fixes for problems that have been years in the making. Therefore, the consequences of the decision made by automakers in 2020 to cancel their existing semiconductor orders will last beyond 2022. Ultimately, ABI Research does not expect new vehicle sales to return to the 90 million mark—last seen in 2018—until 2023 at the earliest.

No Relief from Semiconductor Shortage

A combination of factors will take until 2023 to resolve shortage issues through additional capacity, verification of real demand (versus panic 2X to 3X orders), and the inflationary impact on consumer spending on products. Continued risk factors include social/political risks and the ability to bring new fab capacity online, on time, especially for tight engineering specified automotive and commercial vehicles. COVID-19 variants and the impact on nations without high vaccination rates also play a role in permitting staffing of facilities and transportation of finished goods and semiconductor supplies.

“Our goal is to provide the key decision tools businesses need to act with speed, appropriateness, and efficiency. 2022 will be challenging, but it also holds great promise and great opportunity,” Carlaw concludes.

For more trends that won’t happen in 2022, and the 35 trends that will, download the whitepaper, 70 Technology Trends That Will—and Will Not—Shape 2022.

 

About ABI Research

ABI Research is a global technology intelligence firm uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology solution providers and end-market companies. We serve as the bridge that seamlessly connects these two segments by providing exclusive research and expert guidance to drive successful technology implementations and deliver strategies proven to attract and retain customers.

ABI Research 是一家全球性的技术情报公司,拥有得天独厚的优势,充当终端市场公司和技术解决方案提供商之间的桥梁,通过提供独家研究和专业性指导,推动成功的技术实施和提供经证明可吸引和留住客户的战略,无缝连接这两大主体。

For more information about ABI Research’s services, contact us at +1.516.624.2500 in the Americas, +44.203.326.0140 in Europe, +65.6592.0290 in Asia-Pacific, or visit www.abiresearch.com.