A Lost Decade for MNOs in Western Europe Whilst African Operators Expected to See 4.3% CAGR

17 Dec 2012

Global wireless service revenue is expected to increase at a diminishing rate from 2012 to 2018. “Despite the negative average revenue per user (ARPU) compound annual growth rates (CAGR) experienced by all regions during the period, growth in cellular subscriptions will more than offset the decline, as the majority of the world population has yet to own a handset and the rise in non-traditional accesses from M2Ms, tablets, and other connected devices provides an additional boost,” according to Ying Kang Tan, research associate at ABI Research.

While global voice revenue continues to fall, data revenue will be on an upward trajectory. In particular, not surprisingly, mobile Internet will be a major contributor, with revenue forecast to soar at an impressive CAGR of 8.2% over the six-year forecast horizon. Notably, global messaging revenue is expected to remain resilient for at least a few more years.

This general trend, however, will not be shared by all regions. Western Europe has been and will continue be the worst performer, with mobile service revenue tumbling since 2008 and predicted to deteriorate through 2018. Meanwhile, just across the Mediterranean Sea, Africa will be the rising star. With a projected CAGR of 4.3%, its service revenue will beat the worldwide average by more than two times.

“Operators like Telefonica and Vodafone Group are in the thick of the Euroland-instigated recession,” remarked Jake Saunders, VP and practice director, core forecasting. “The real net contributors to their revenue came from the emerging markets.”

The “Mobile Carriers and Revenue” Market Data provides a robust and intensive source of financial and operational benchmarks not just for the markets as a whole, but also for the wireless carriers that operate in them. Benchmarks include service revenue and gross profit. These findings are part of ABI Research’s Mobile ARPU Database.

ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research’s worldwide team of experts advises thousands of decision makers through 70+ research and advisory services. Est. 1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500 .

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