Mobile devices with HTML5-compatible browsers will total 1.4 billion at end-2013, following an annual increase of 87%, according to new forecasts from ABI Research. Although the installed base of this size represents a very potent market for mobile application developers, in practice the vast majority of them continue to choose the native model over the web for their releases.
Senior analyst Aapo Markkanen sums up: “While some two years ago it still looked like 2013 could be the Year of Web App, it’s now looking like that this will prove more like the Year of Hybrid. HTML5 is making strides, but mainly through developers that take advantage of increasingly capable cross-platform development tools. Meanwhile, there aren’t many signs of full-blown web apps effectively challenging the native way.”
However, ABI Research’s view is that two parallel trends will help the web to catch up further. First, it’s expected that the support for HTML5 features and browsers will be gradually baked deeper into operating systems, making the web apps speedier and more responsive. This will be partially driven by the upcoming wave of open-source platforms – Firefox OS, Sailfish, Tizen, and Ubuntu – but at the end of the day the most significant factor may turn out to be Android’s eventual convergence with Chrome.
Second, there are the hardware vendors. “There’s a lot of scope to achieve a more robust HTML5 support already in the chip level,” says Markkanen. “Especially Intel has lately displayed strategic interest in pushing the envelope here. Also Samsung’s collaboration with Mozilla to develop a whole new browser engine, dubbed Servo, is worth following. A truly ground-up mobile browser could certainly ease the bottleneck that currently holds back the mobile web.”
These findings are from ABI Research’s Mobile Applications Research Service, which provides a deep dive into technologies that enable new and transformative applications. As part of it ABI Research also assesses the economic side of the app industry, sizing the addressable market and measuring how much revenue the releases will generate.
ABI Research provides in-depth analysis and quantitative forecasting of trends in global connectivity and other emerging technologies. From offices in North America, Europe and Asia, ABI Research’s worldwide team of experts advises thousands of decision makers through 70+ research and advisory services. Est. 1990. For more information visit www.abiresearch.com, or call +1.516.624.2500.
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