The Stagnating Payment Cards Market Means a Shift from Volume to Value Is Inevitable

The payment cards market is now entering a new era, defined by a new annual shipment baseline, driven by a set of impending challenges. Some of these challenges are new, whereas others are beginning to expand into other countries and regions.

This ABI Insight sheds light on these challenges, what it means for the market, and how ecosystem players can be best positioned to navigate an otherwise stagnating market and capture some of the emerging revenue opportunities.

In 2025, 2.95 billion Europay, Mastercard, Visa (EMV) payment cards were shipped, representing a Year-over-Year (YoY) decrease of -3.5%, marking a second consecutive year of market retraction. The reduced demand resulted from high levels of inventory, which continued to affect 2025, having a more elongated impact on the market than previously expected.

Moving into 2026, the market has begun to stabilize in terms of impact from the overstocking. Although a level of market recovery is expected in 2026, it will be extremely nominal with shipments forecast to grow just +0.6% as new dynamics begin having a growing impact on the market, the most significant being:

1. Reissuance strategies targeting active cards only
2. Extension of card expiry

For the remainder of the forecast period, ending 2030, an expectation of low single-digit annual growth continues to be the most likely scenario, creating a new market baseline, where shipments just under the 3 billion mark annually can be achieved.

In Asia, payment card shipments reached 1.02 billion in 2025, with an extremely minor decrease expected in 2026, followed by minor growth from 2027 onward. Malaysia moving to a 7-year expiry, with the Philippines and India expected to follow suit, combined with a continuation of India only reissuing active cards, will significantly impact those localized markets. This is somewhat counterbalanced by growing areas that include China, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

After a significant decline in 2024, 2025 payment card shipment levels in North America stabilized. Between 2026 and 2030, annual shipment levels will be a little volatile, driven by an expectation of a short-term reissuance boost following the Capital One and Discover merger, finally settling down in the low 700 million region annually.

The Latin American market is expected to be one of extreme flatness over the forecast period, growing from 464 million EMV card shipments in 2025 to 467 million in 2030. The year 2025 marked one of market settlement after significant Fintech activity over the 2021 to 2023 period. However, an expectation that issuers in the region will adopt a strategy of only reissuing active cards, with inactive being addressed via digital-only variants, will place significant strain on the market in 2026 and beyond.

Europe will continue on its slow growth trajectory and remain stable throughout the forecast period with annual EMV payment card shipments in the 590 million range annually.

The Middle East & Africa will remain a dynamic market and still the region that will present the greatest growth opportunity over the next 5 years. Despite this, forecast expectations and confidence in the region are beginning to decline, driven by a multitude of factors—fragmentation, economic instability, persistent reliance on cash, and continued underdeveloped infrastructure (and mobile alternatives, as it relates to Africa).

With a new market reality and baseline set, all eyes are pinned on the main impact factors that will likely slow, disrupt, or minimize EMV payment card issuance growth over the next 5 years.

Given the extremely mature and saturated nature of the market, impacts can be hard felt, immediate, and sharp. Identifying early, setting expectations, and adopting approaches to minimize potential business disruption becomes an absolute necessity. ABI Research has identified the four primary challenges that the market will likely face over the next 5 years:

1. Indirect Mobile Impact: Mobile payment cards continue to be issued alongside the physical card as a companion, with the physical card, in most instances, being the primary credential. Despite this, higher usage of mobile payments over physical cards means that card usage, and thus wear and tear, reduce, lowering replacement opportunities.
2. More Cautious Approach to Reissuance: India is driving this, with issuers only replacing active cards. This reduces the Total Addressable Market (TAM), and although a dynamic only seen in India today, this is a strategy that is expected to be emulated in the future in other cost-sensitive markets.
3. Extension of Expiry: Malaysia issuers extended their card expiry to 7 years, along with the Punjab National Bank in India. Rumors are beginning to circulate about other countries following suit. As the payment cards market is largely defined by churn and replacements, any extension to expiry will significantly impact annual issuance levels.
4. Memory Shortage: There is mounting fear that the memory shortage may have an indirect impact on payment card Integrated Circuit (IC) supply. Although any potential impact remains unclear, a shift in foundry priority toward memory products related to wafer manufacturing and finishing processes may reduce supply. In the best case scenario, this will drive up payment IC prices, and in the worst scenario, a potential chipset shortage. Any memory shortage impact will not represent a reduction in market demand, but rather a strain on supply chains, which could impact supply.

ABI Research posits that the first three impact factors present the most significant risks. Combined, these have the potential to significantly reduce the replacement TAM and create annual issuance volatility.

As differentiation becomes more difficult in a highly standardized market, a focus shift from volume to value will help counter annual volume stagnation via innovative card materials such as metal, and eco-friendly alternatives. Financial institutions and issuers should be encouraged to embrace personalization imperfections for eco-friendly materials to achieve broader Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) goals. A more selective approach to competition battle grounds should also be adopted to avoid further price erosions, which will inevitably result in a race to the bottom.