New GNSS Breakthroughs Will Spark a Wave of New Market Growth for PNT Services

Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) solutions supported by Global Positioning Systems (GPS) satellites—part of the broader Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) family—in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) have long supported billions of active devices around the world for navigation applications, such as Google Maps, synchronizing data centers, or navigating semi-autonomous drones. The rise in electronic warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian war, however, has displayed persistent disruption to GNSS services through jamming and spoofing, impacting hundreds of maritime vessels, thousands of flights, and millions of devices in Eastern Europe. However, new space systems in both the government and commercial sectors are set to overcome these challenges and ignite a new wave of PNT solutions to complement GPS.

The threat of electronic warfare and cyberattacks has not only motivated the launch of a new anti-jamming GPS constellation by the U.S. Space Force—GPS III—but also raised interest in how commercial Low Earth Orbit (LEO) operators such as SpaceX, Globalstar, and Iridium can add resiliency and stimulate new commercial opportunities with PNT services. In fact, the Federal Communication Commission’s (FCC) initiative, titled “Promoting the Development of Positioning, Navigation and Timing Technologies and Solutions,” aims to explore both space-based and terrestrial alternatives by soliciting input from technology stakeholders. In response, SpaceX claims that its LEO constellation could offer standalone or supplementary PNT services through its cellular Starlink service—advocating for an open approach to GPS alternatives that are embedded in communications services. Contrastingly, LEO operators Globalstar and Iridium are advocating for support for a diversity of PNT solutions, such as including proprietary ones that only work on their dedicated network frequencies (e.g., Iridium Satellite Time & Location (Iridium STL)).

The growing interest in PNT technologies by the FCC and industry behemoth SpaceX highlights a trend that has been unfolding for a number of years. The need to counter jamming and spoofing—and build resilient and complementary PNT systems—has become a central focus in the evolution of PNT technologies. Some companies have already identified this trend and have begun commercialization of supplemental PNT services. The Iridium STL solution is a recent example of a GPS-independent PNT service that enables high precision and security, for a fee, and currently supports thousands of users.

While multi-constellation chipsets have higher energy demands, smartphone Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) have been increasingly favoring GNSS chipsets with multi-constellation support, including GPS, Galileo, GLONASS, BeiDou, Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC), and more, all on the same chip. Furthermore, the arrival of more advanced and secure PNT services from LEO networks and beyond—combined with rising global uncertainty and the need for greater resiliency—is expected to drive demand for next-generation GNSS chipsets and accelerate replacement cycles. While 2028 is forecast to see consumer-grade GNSS chipset shipments to reach well over 2.3 billion shipments annually, largely driven by multi-constellation PNT solutions that enable higher accuracy, ABI Research expects positive headwinds in market PNT supply, supportive regulatory framework, and adoption of open standards to positively shift device shipment replacement cycles and overall shipment volume.

The introduction of existing and emergent LEO communication networks into the PNT services domain will unlock new opportunities for PNT service commercialization and chipset and device diversification. From a service commercialization perspective, GNSS-challenged regions, such as combat zones, urban environments, and equatorial regions, have a fundamental need for enhanced redundancy and precision with PNT services that are enhanced with higher satellite volume and would translate into a recurring revenue opportunity. Companies operating thousands of satellites like SpaceX, Amazon, OneWeb, and more are well positioned to provide value-added PNT services via performance advantages and resiliency capabilities for more critical markets. For chipsets makers, demand for GNSS-independent technologies on multi-mode chipsets will increase with the support of many new LEO networks coming into operation. As seen in the satellite broadband and Direct-to-Cellular (D2C) markets—and soon in the Internet of Things (IoT), Direct-to-Device (D2D) sector—SpaceX’s public entry into a sector tends to accelerate overall market growth and opportunities. While PNT technologies have existed for some time, the surge of interest driven by the “New Space” boom is unlocking fresh opportunities. Chipset vendors that support these emerging networks will be well positioned to capitalize on the next wave of PNT innovation. To navigate the rapidly evolving space technology landscape, we invite you to explore ABI Research’s Space Technologies & Innovation advisory services—where you'll gain expert guidance, tailored solutions, and strategic recommendations to stay ahead of emerging trends and market shifts.