Smart Card Shipments to Reach 8.46 Billion by 2030 as eSIM Transition Reshapes SIM and New Issuance Strategies Redefine the Payment Card Markets

Global smart card shipments totaled 8.32 billion in 2025 and will rise modestly to 8.46 billion by 2030, underscoring how maturity, digitization, and shifting issuance models are constraining volume growth across the market. According to global technology intelligence firm ABI Research, the industry is entering a period in which vendors must focus less on scale alone and more on managing transition, protecting margins, and targeting higher-value opportunities. ‌

“The smart card market is no longer defined by broad-based expansion, but by how effectively vendors adapt to structural change,” said Phil Sealy, Research Director at ABI Research. “The transition from removable SIM to eSIM, the extension of payment card expiry periods, is expected to reduce traditional replacement volumes, forcing suppliers to rethink where future value will come from.” ‌

ABI Research found that overall, SIM card shipments reached 4.08 billion in 2025, with eSIM device shipments accounting for 523.6 million, or 12.8% of total shipments, rising to just under 1.1 billion by 2030 and nearly 27% penetration. At the same time, EMV payment card shipments fell to 2.94 billion in 2025, down 3.5% year over year, as elevated inventory levels and emerging reissuance strategies weighed on demand, while government ID smart card shipments climbed nearly 650 million units, up 5% year over year. ‌

The report also highlights a major shift in the secure IC market, where embedded secure ICs continue to gain share even as traditional smart card IC demand remained pressured by prolonged inventory correction. In 1H 2025, NXP, STMicroelectronics, Infineon and Samsung held a combined secure IC revenue market share (comprising of secure IC’s used within traditional smart cards, alongside embedded variants) of 74%, reflecting how market leadership is increasingly tied to scale, portfolio breadth, and the ability to support both traditional and embedded security deployments. ‌

“Vendors that succeed over the next five years will be those that can navigate low single digit shipment growth with disciplined market selection and stronger value-added positioning,” Sealy said. “That means aligning with eSIM enablement, hybrid physical-digital ID programs, embedded security demand, and niche higher-ASP opportunities rather than competing purely on commodity card volumes.” ‌

These findings are from ABI Research’s Smart Card and Secure IC Technologies Market Data Overview: 2Q 2026 market data report, part of the company’s Trusted Device Solutions research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights.