Defense OT Ethernet Market to Reach US$9.7 Billion by 2030 as Militaries Shift to AI-Powered, Software-Defined Platforms

Global technology intelligence firm ABI Research forecasts that the Total Addressable Market for Operational Technology Ethernet in defense and military applications will grow from US$7.4 billion in 2026 to US$9.7 billion by 2030, as armed forces accelerate digitization across aircraft, missiles, drones, vehicles, and command-and-control infrastructure. The shift reflects a broader move toward software-defined, data-driven, and AI-enabled military systems that require deterministic, resilient connectivity at far higher speeds than legacy buses can provide. ‌

“The defense sector is moving beyond platform-centric modernization toward network-centric and software-defined operations, and that is making Ethernet a strategic enabler rather than just a connectivity option,” said Dimitris Mavrakis, Senior Research Director at ABI Research. “As sensor fusion, autonomous missions, and edge AI become core requirements, suppliers that can deliver ruggedized, secure, and deterministic Ethernet solutions will be best positioned to capture long-term opportunity.” ‌

ABI Research found that global defense spending will reach US$2.6 trillion in 2026, supported by ongoing conflict-driven replenishment cycles and multiple defense digitization programs worldwide. The study highlights that missiles will remain the largest OT Ethernet revenue category in 2026 and 2027 as munitions inventories are replenished, before spending increasingly shifts toward command-and-control centers, which are expected to become the digital nerve centers of fleetwide operations. ‌

The market is also being shaped by major modernization initiatives and platform programs, including JADC2 in the United States, NATO’s Federated Mission Networking efforts, and sixth-generation combat aircraft programs such as NGAD, FCAS, Tempest, and China’s J-36. ABI Research notes that Time-Sensitive Networking is becoming table stakes for military OT Ethernet, while vendors across the ecosystem, including Curtiss-Wright, L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, Mercury Systems, RTX/Collins Aerospace, Thales, and component suppliers such as Analog Devices, Intel, Marvell, Microchip, and Texas Instruments, are expanding capabilities around ruggedization, deterministic communications, and secure embedded networking. ‌

“Legacy standards like MIL-STD-1553, ARINC 429, and CAN bus will not disappear overnight, but their performance limitations are becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile with next-generation mission requirements,” Mavrakis said. “The companies that proactively certify TSN-enabled products for harsh defense environments and align with open integration ecosystems will have the strongest opportunity as Ethernet becomes the convergence layer for wired military communications.” ‌

These findings are from ABI Research’s Operational Technology Ethernet in Defense and Military technology analysis report, part of the company’s Enterprise Connectivity research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights.