ABI Research Forecasts Software-Defined Satellite Channel Emulation Will Reshape NTN Partner Testing

Global technology intelligence firm ABI Research forecasts that software-defined Satellite Channel Emulators (SCEs) will become a critical part of how telecom operators evaluate satellite partners for Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) services. According to the firm, the SCE market will grow to US$70 million in annual shipment revenue by 2031, up from US$48 million in 2023, as operators seek more reliable and cost-effective ways to validate satellite performance before commercial deployment.

“Satellite uncertainty is no longer acceptable for operators preparing commercial NTN services,” said Andrew Cavalier, Principal Analyst at ABI Research. “Channel emulation gives telcos a way to verify reliability in the lab before they commit to a partner, helping them protect Service-Level Agreements, reduce deployment risk, and accelerate time to market for 5G NTN services.”

ABI Research’s report emphasizes that SCEs are now essential for testing equipment and protocols before and after satellite partner selection, while also benchmarking LEO, MEO, and GEO systems side by side without the cost and complexity of live testing.
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The market’s center of gravity is shifting rapidly toward software. ABI Research forecasts software license sales will increase from roughly 23% of total annual SCE sales in 2025 to more than 75% by 2031, with about 2,100 software licenses expected to be sold over that period. While annual SCE revenue is projected to peak at US$79 million in 2028 before tapering to just under US$70 million by 2031, software revenue alone is expected to reach US$25 million annually by 2030, representing a 29% CAGR and a 5-year cumulative revenue opportunity of US$100 million.

ABI Research also expects telecommunications companies to become one of the largest end-user groups for SCE solutions as they expand satellite partnerships and prepare for NTN-enabled Direct-to-Device, IoT, mobility, and cellular backhaul services. By 2031, telcos are expected to account for more than 31% of total annual shipment volume. The report also highlights vendor momentum across the ecosystem, including solutions and initiatives from Keysight, Viavi, Rohde & Schwarz, Simnovus, Hollis, and Lasting Software, reflecting broader investment in 3GPP NTN validation, software-led testing, and hybrid satellite-terrestrial network development ‌

“As operators evolve into service aggregators spanning terrestrial and non-terrestrial connectivity, software-based testing will become foundational,” said Rachel Kong, Industry Analyst at ABI Research. “The ability to deploy containerized emulation across distributed infrastructure and run thousands of concurrent scenarios will be vital for scaling future 5G and 6G satellite services. Vendors that can deliver flexible, lower-cost, software-centric solutions will be best positioned to capture the next wave of demand.”

These findings are from ABI Research’s Evaluating Satellite Partners for NTN: The Role of Channel Emulation report, part of the company’s Space Technologies & Innovation research coverage, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights.