ABI Research Forecasts Data Center Cooling Demand Will Surge Nearly 7x by 2035 as AI Reshapes Smart Building Priorities

As AI adoption transforms commercial infrastructure, global technology intelligence firm ABI Research finds that data center thermal cooling requirements will rise from 28.8 million tons in 2025 to 194.6 million tons in 2035, reflecting a 20.1% CAGR and underscoring how cooling has become a strategic priority in both smart buildings and AI infrastructure. The firm also notes that building owners are increasingly prioritizing interoperable platforms, predictive maintenance, and AI-enabled automation to reduce operating costs, improve resilience, and manage aging assets. ‌

“Smart buildings are no longer defined by how much data they collect, but by how effectively that data is turned into operational action,” says Paris McKinley, Research Analyst at ABI Research. “As labor constraints, energy costs, and sustainability pressures intensify, building operators are looking for solutions that can unify fragmented systems, support AI-driven decision-making, and deliver measurable outcomes across portfolios.” ‌

ABI Research’s findings show that the shift is especially visible in data centers, where facility area is forecast to grow from approximately 2 billion square feet in 2025 to more than 5 billion square feet in 2035. At the same time, higher rack densities are accelerating the move toward liquid-ready and hybrid cooling architectures, while AI supports predictive cooling, workload balancing, and automated controls. Across the broader commercial building market, retrofit-friendly technologies such as wireless sensors, cloud software, and minimally disruptive controls are also gaining traction as owners modernize existing infrastructure without full system replacement.

The broader smart building market is also moving away from hardware-only differentiation toward software platforms, recurring services, and AI-enabled building management. Recent market activity reflects that transition, including Johnson Controls’ acquisitions of Nantum AI and Alloy Enterprises, Siemens’ continued expansion of its Building X and fire safety portfolios, and Honeywell’s push into cloud-native security and AI-powered analytics. ABI Research also highlights deployments such as CoreWeave and Applied Digital’s AI-optimized cooling infrastructure and Amazon’s heat pump rollout with Transaera as examples of how next-generation building technologies are being applied in real-world environments.

“Over the next 24 months, the competitive edge will come from repeatable deployment models, strong data readiness, and the ability to scale proven use cases across buildings and portfolios,” McKinley says. “Vendors and operators that invest now in interoperability, standardized data models, and AI-ready workflows will be best positioned to move from reactive building management to more predictive and increasingly autonomous operations.”

These findings are from ABI Research’s Smart Buildings Semiannual Update: 1H 2026 report, part of the company’s Smart Buildings research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights.