Global Passenger Electric Vehicle Sales

Strong EV sales growth between 2024 and 2035

The global Electric Vehicle (EV) market continues to grow, with sales up 15% in 2024 and forecast to grow by 22% in 2025. Global EV sales are expected to increase from 15.4 million in 2024 to 69 million in 2035 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.6%. This represents a noteworthy slowdown from growth rates in previous years, which can be explained by slowing regulatory support and in the case of the U.S. market, abandonment of subsidies for EVs and charging infrastructure.

Chinese market slowdown, other regions play catchup

The Chinese EV market has settled into linear growth at a steady rate and will not return to the exponential growth of previous years as EV adoption is too high for those rapid growth rates to be possible. The current low EV prices in China are expected to continue, which will ensure that demand continues to grow. EV sales penetration reached 41.8% in 2024 and is expected to reach 49.2% in 2025.

While the rest of the world catches up with China on Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) adoption, it will keep its Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) leadership for longer as the larger batteries on offer in China are more appealing to consumers, and European markets are moving away from the technology due to environmental concerns. China will no longer account for a majority of global BEV sales in 2028, but will remain responsible for the majority of global PHEV sales throughout the forecast period.

In the United States, EV sales penetration barely grew from 10.4% in 2023 to 10.5% in 2024. Major Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) in the United States have had to realign their priorities regarding investment in EV platforms due to unexpected cost changes as a result of tariffs and geopolitical tensions. While this will cause a slow down in the speed of adoption of EVs, the market is still expected to reach an EV penetration of 52% by 2035.

The previous uncertainty in the United States regarding the incentives and grants offered through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) have now been realized following the U.S. election, leading to their withdrawal over 2025.

METHODOLOGY

A Detailed Description of How the Forecast Was Constructed
Electric Vehicles is below:

• ABI Research collects historical data in key markets from national motor manufacturer associations and OEMs, collating sales reports to provide a global picture. Monthly sales figures are used to extrapolate the likely sales performance by the end of the current year.
• ABI Research relies on a primary research interview methodology to produce market forecasts for the EV market. By collecting perspectives from OEMs and suppliers, ABI Research triangulates a view on the likely adoption of EVs across regions.
• Expectations of adoption rates are combined with ABI Research’s latest assessment of the new vehicle sales market to produce volume expectations for both shipments and the installed base.
• The current forecasts include only consumer passenger cars.
• ABI Research defines an “EV” as a plug-in electric vehicle. This includes BEVs that take their energy only from their batteries and run only on electric motors, and PHEVs that take energy from both their batteries and a fuel tank and contain an ICE. This definition of EV does not include hybrids that cannot be recharged from an external source.

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