eRedCap on the Verge of Becoming a Reality, but with a Slow Burn Ahead

Mobile World Congress (MWC) in 2026 has been touted as the first physical showcase for enhanced Reduced Capability (eRedCap) semiconductors. eRedCap is an implementation of 5G designed to match the throughput characteristics of LTE Category 1 (Cat-1), and LTE Cat-1bis. This provides a 5G migration path for cellular connected devices with lower throughput requirements where full 5G is overkill, too expensive, and not power efficient enough. eRedCap was standardized in The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) Release 18 in June 2024, with French semiconductor manufacturer Sequans being the first to announce a timeline for the availability of chipsets in March 2025. Sequans has since been followed by just one other semiconductor manufacturer, fellow Internet of Things (IoT) specialist Altair, with an eRedCap chipset announcement as recently as January 2026.

All eRedCap chipsets currently proposed are dual-mode. Traditionally, multi-mode chipsets support legacy technologies for the sake of fallback, in instances where devices receive no coverage from the latest generation technology, as it is not yet ubiquitous. But for eRedCap, Long Term Evolution (LTE) fallback will be the primary connectivity technology in most geographies for the next 4 to 5 years, with eRedCap itself providing 5G future-proofing. To take things a step further, it will be even longer before single-mode eRedCap can be a realistic proposition, only once LTE networks are being routinely sunset, and are fewer in number and coverage than their 5G replacements. Sequans proposes two eRedCap chipsets, its Monarch 3 with Cat-M fallback, and its Calliope 3 with Cat-1bis fallback. Altair’s ALT1550 is also expected to come in separate Cat-M and Cat-1bis configurations.

The earliest possible timeline for eRedCap chipset availability is sampling in 2026, testing in 2027 alongside the first limited volume shipments, with the first year of mass production being 2028. Also keep in mind that modules using eRedCap chips will be available 6 months later, with IoT devices containing those modules shipping yet another 6 months down the line. We might not see the first eRedCap devices until early 2029. When eRedCap components do launch, they will not be competitive pricewise with the technologies they seek to replace. It will take a good 2 years before they reach parity through the necessary chipset and module optimization, network availability, and economies of scale. This gives us a timeline of 2031 for eRedCap to be normalized as the low-throughput cellular technology of choice.

As a point of comparison, Cat-M was standardized in June 2016, with chipsets that came to market in 2017, but did not ship in volume until 2021 and 2022, at the exact same time that 2G network wind-downs and sunsets became a reality worldwide. Cat-M could have been considered a failure, but it is now the highest shipping cellular connectivity technology for the IoT, achieving an expected 86 million units in 2025, module vendor financial reporting notwithstanding. But eRedCap is not just expected to match Cat-1bis prices, but will become even cheaper, especially with single-mode designs. eRedCap chipsets will become more efficient and consume less power over time; also the 5G frequency bands supported will have a big impact on affordability. This means that eRedCap modules may benefit even more than LTE with region- and country-specific variants.

Major semiconductor manufacturers have been notably quiet about eRedCap. Some seem unlikely to ever launch a product, while for others, it is guaranteed that they will. MediaTek will not launch eRedCap, having being burned when it comes to the IoT by the disappointment of Narrowband (NB)-IoT. MediaTek will instead focus on consumer devices and will only target the IoT where there is a natural overlap and reuse of chipset capability; it will not develop IoT-only products. For example, MediaTek has two variants of its T300 5G RedCap chipset, with different memory profiles for consumer and IoT device types, and that is as far as it will go. Conversely, Chinese semiconductor manufacturers UNISOC and ASR Microelectronics are sure to launch eRedCap, having moved significantly into Cat-1bis chipset development, which neither MediaTek nor Qualcomm sought to do. But what about Qualcomm for eRedCap?

eRedCap is designed to replace the lowest-cost LTE connectivity, but it cannot do so until it is equally as affordable, or even more so. LTE Cat-1 and Cat-1bis have been extremely popular in the IoT, suggesting that eRedCap is inevitably set for mass market success, as LTE will not persist forever—albeit at a price already doomed to the most extreme commoditization and the slimmest possible margins right out of the gate. It is understandable why Qualcomm, the world’s biggest supplier of cellular IoT chipsets in terms of revenue, is keeping its powder dry. As an exponent of maximal integration, Qualcomm has not typically been skilled at developing for maximal efficiency; it has never produced a single-mode chipset, for example. For Qualcomm, as with Cat-1bis, the acquisition of mature third-party Intellectual Property (IP) will be the way forward, if and when eRedCap proves itself.

Wireless carriers have the power to force eRedCap adoption through the closure of LTE networks, potentially necessitating that device Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) accept higher component prices early on and against their wishes. But as crucial as the timeline for LTE sunsets is, so is the timeline for RedCap network support. Few carriers prioritize upgrading to minor 3GPP releases, and for the sake of cost, they would prefer to wait for the next major release. It may easily be the case that despite 5G RedCap being standardized in Release 17, and eRedCap in Release 18, it won’t be until the major event of Release 20 that most carriers acquire RedCap-capable networks, courtesy of 3GPP standards’ backward compatibility. This puts us at a 2028 timeline for the start of the emergence of common eRedCap support by carriers, but this still does not speak to the pace of network coverage rollout after initial adoption.

eRedCap uses all 5G spectrum; unlike Cat-M, it does not operate in select bands and does not require carriers to set aside any such bands for its perpetual use. eRedCap should be easier to deploy as a 5G add-on than Cat-M and not a discrete “sub-network.” eRedCap is not formally slated to replace Cat-M, which has become part of 5G, but it is interesting to note the Cat-1bis and Cat-M eRedCap chipset variants from Sequans and Altair. Cat-M and Cat-1bis are complementary to allow regional and global Stock Keeping Units (SKUs) for device OEMs. But Cat-1bis has also replaced Cat-M where Cat-M was originally chosen principally for its low price. eRedCap presents an interesting opportunity for IoT-specialist semiconductor manufacturers to break out of the industrial IoT and into the consumer wearables market, which may, in the opinion of one manufacturer, stand to double or triple their addressable market opportunity.

This is a point of note for wireless carriers, too, in that an IoT-only eRedCap strategy should not be pursued. It is unlikely that the IoT connectivity opportunity alone is strong enough to economically justify the Radio Access Network (RAN) software upgrade required. Carriers from the small pool that have deployed 5G RedCap are already reporting disappointing connection uptake; and for most carriers when planning their 5G Standalone (SA) launch, RedCap for the IoT was not one of their top priorities. A joined-up consumer and enterprise plan is required. So, what value lies in being first to market in eRedCap considering the timelines discussed here? The 10-month gap between the announcements from Sequans and Altair will make little difference. Most semiconductor manufacturers’ products will come to market at the same time, including those that have yet to publicly state their product plans.