2026 Will Be an Explosive Year for Satellite IoT and D2D

The satellite Internet of Things (IoT) market has been on a steady climb over the past few years, even amid Chapter 11s, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), and ventures that never took off. The year 2025 was especially eventful, as we saw a wave of acquisitions and developments poised to reshape the market’s direction. For 2025, ABI Research estimates that the global satellite IoT market passed the US$1.2 billion connectivity revenue threshold, a major milestone for an industry that was long dominated by a few major L-band players. Ironically, the large players shaking up the space industry have largely steered clear of the Narrowband (NB) IoT market, choosing their markets in direct-to-premises broadband and cellular backhaul markets; until now. Shockwaves are coming to the satellite IoT market and an upward swing in demand is on the horizon. A few of the developments foretelling this future include:

• SpaceX IoT: While SpaceX has been the “Starchild” of the satellite broadband industry, providing Wi-Fi and critical communications to homes, enterprises, and even the Ukrainian front lines, the company’s new Direct-to-Cellular (D2C) network of 600 specialized satellites launched earlier this year boast over 8 million Direct-to-Smartphone users across five continents. The dark horse capability of this new network is not only the ability to support connectivity to Long Term Evolution (LTE) smartphones, but enterprise IoT data applications via CAT-1, CAT-1 Bis, and CAT-4 devices with their telco partners. By the end of the year, we estimate that the Starlink D2C network will reach over 100,000 paid IoT connections and generate US$6 million in connectivity revenue. And if that’s not convincing enough, SpaceX decided to really underline its IoT and Device-to-Device (D2D) ambitions by snapping up EchoStar’s S-band for a cool US$17 billion, and promptly filing plans for a fresh 15,000-satellite Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation to put that spectrum to work. Launches are expected to begin in 1H 2026 and reach full commercial operation by the end of 2027. Why bother upgrading your existing mega networks when you can just launch another, right?
• SES/Lynk/Omnispace Merger: A significant evolution in the D2D and IoT market was the announcement of the merger between Lynk Global and Omnispace, with SES being a major strategic shareholder. Although Lynk Global has been commercially active for a while, its fleet of just 10 nanosatellites and a limited ground network footprint restrict the service to very low data-rate applications and narrow its user potential. Despite these limitations, ABI Research estimates that the company is generating upward of US$7,000,000 a year in connectivity revenue across 30,000 IoT and D2C connections in 2025. Earlier in the year, Lynk found its “White Knight” with a strategic backing by SES, giving the company access to SES’s maturing ground and space infrastructure, while promising to move manufacturing of its planned network of 5,000 satellites to Luxembourg. To make the partnership even sweeter and elevate Lynk’s services to be on par with other Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) IoT players, Omnispace, a holder of long idled S-band, announced a potential merger with Lynk Global.
• AST Space Mobile Acquires Ligado’s S Band: Another major evolution came when AST SpaceMobile announced it had acquired global S-band spectrum from Ligado—with its Chapter 11 filing underscoring just how punishing the Capital Expenditure (CAPEX)-heavy and margin-sensitive satellite IoT business can be. On top of this, AST inked a deal with Verizon, alongside AT&T and Vodafone and a long list of other telcos, to bring D2C services to its customers from as early as 2026. It is unclear when IoT services, using operator spectrum or S-band, will go live.
• Globalstar’s Potential Sale to SpaceX: Globalstar made waves last year when it announced the plans for C-3, 48 next-generation satellites and 90 ground stations to be deployed by 2026, to compete with Iridium, SpaceX, Skylo, AST, and other emerging IoT player. This year, Globalstar announced another constellation named, HIBLEO-XL-1, which will focus on service delivery on L, S, and C-bands. Following this development, rumors have begun to circulate that Globalstar may be selling the rest of their business before the new network even goes live. Globalstar has been steadily growing its IoT business, reaching 600,000 connections and just over US$26 million in commercial and government IoT service revenue this year, but is facing tough competition from Iridium, Inmarsat, Orbcomm, Skylo, and now SpaceX. The C-3 network may be mostly paid for, but Apple is the main benefactor of this new network, with the remaining 15% for Globalstar IoT services.
• Skylo: Skylo has been making waves in the satellite IoT and D2D space. Orange recently launched a satellite messaging service on Google Pixel devices, while several mainstream device Original Equipment Operators (OEMs) (such as Samsung and Google), chipset and module vendors (such a Nordic, Quectel, MediaTek, Qualcomm, and Sony Altair have joined the long list of certified devices for the company. For this year, ABI Research estimates that the company has reached well over 3 million paid IoT connections and over US$90 million in service revenue, making it one of the largest suppliers of satellite IoT connectivity.
• Iridium NTN: Iridium has also started signing deals with major telcos—including Deutsche Telekom, Karrier One, and Vodafone IoT—to integrate Iridium NTN Direct, which is slated for commercial launch in 2026. Iridium remains one of the largest players in the satellite IoT space, having grown its subscriber base from 1.2 million connections in 2021 to over 2 million connections by 2025.

The satellite IoT market is beginning to see a lot of action, and technology winners and losers are starting to show their hands. It is becoming evident that a few larger players are projected to “win” in this market with scale, speed, versatility, and innovation. Our tracking indicates that LEO operators are seeing consistent subscriber growth as customers’ priorities shift toward lower cost, lower-latency solutions. However, Skylo—currently operating exclusively via Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites—has captured a respectable market share by offering lower-cost connectivity to 3GPP-standardized devices.

While GEO performance may lag behind LEO or proprietary services, Skylo’s ecosystem of over 66 devices, chipsets, and modules demonstrates the strength of the unified NTN standard. In contrast, operators using competing standards like LoRa face an uncertain future. For example, while EchoStar Mobile retains its European S-band spectrum, it may be the next asset sold following SpaceX’s acquisition of EchoStar's U.S. licenses. Other LoRa players, such as Lacuna Space, FOSSA Systems, and Wyld Networks, remain dwarfed in scale compared to the 3GPP ecosystem.

With Iridium adopting the standard, and SpaceX (Gen 2 D2C) and Globalstar expected to follow, telcos and chipset vendors pivoting to support LEO NTN solutions and services are well equipped to ride this growth wave. SpaceX’s track record speaks for itself, and like its entry into the satellite broadband sector, the entry of SpaceX and other mega-constellations into satellite IoT will drive rapid M&A activity, alongside product and service innovation. However, unlike in the broadband market, many satellite IoT players (both new and legacy) lack the commercial scale or market dominance to compete with these large disruptors.

Furthermore, the emergence of Chinese systems like Spacesail and Geely, combined with Amazon’s inevitable move into the IoT market, will usher in a wave of fierce competition. As the industry consolidates around emerging global “national champions,” only large, agile, and innovative companies will survive, leaving smaller satellite IoT providers at risk of rapid collapse. Given the trajectory of the market, ABI Research anticipates that the satellite IoT market will reach US$1.5 billion in service revenue in 2026. More can be found with the latest update of ABI Research’s Satellite Communications: IoT Deployments & Subscriptions market data (MD-SATCI-103).

Telcos and chipset vendors can employ several strategies to mitigate risk and optimize revenue potential with this developing market. For telcos, the primary risk is partnering with a constellation that goes bankrupt or is acquired by a competitor (like SpaceX), leaving a stranded service. For chipset vendors, the risk is dedicating silicon area and Research and Development (R&D) budget to a standard that nobody adopts.

Telcos:

• Audit the "Sovereignty Score": Prioritize partnerships with satellite operators that have explicit government backing. As seen with the "National Champions" trend, governments will likely bail out or subsidize their strategic space assets (e.g., Europe’s IRIS², China’s Spacesail/Guowang) while letting purely commercial speculative ventures fail. Therefore, a “winner” likely has large government contracts that subsidize their commercial IoT pricing, while a "loser” relies too much on venture capital.
• Demand "Landing Rights" Transparency: Ask potential partners for a list of countries where they already hold spectrum licenses and landing rights, not just where they "plan" to operate. Regulatory approval is a large bottleneck. A constellation might have satellites in the sky, but be legally barred from turning them on in key markets (like India or Brazil) due to spectrum conflicts or landing rights access.
• Avoid the "Proprietary Trap": Ensure that Requests for Proposal (RFPs) require 3GPP Release 17/18 (NTN) compliance. Proprietary technologies (like custom LoRa satellite variants) require you to deploy special hardware. If that satellite operator fails, that hardware becomes e-waste—not really a problem with the 3GPP ecosystem.

Chipset Vendors:

• Bet on "Multi-Mode" by Default: Build reference designs that support Terrestrial + Satellite on the same die (System-on-Chip (SoC)) using the 3GPP standard. Device OEMs do not want to add a second modem for satellite. They want a single chip that "just works" everywhere.
• Scrutinize the "Link Budget" of Partners: Before certifying a satellite partner, technically validate their link margin claims. Many LEO startups claim they can connect to "standard phones," but in reality, they require the user to stand in an open field pointing the device at the sky and often only have demonstrated performance for a test device on the network, not real-world scenarios.
• The "Mega-Constellation" Alignment: Prioritize certification for constellations that have reached "Critical Mass" (enough satellites for high revisit rate and years of network staying power).