IoT Antennas—Connectivity Technology Choice Determines Market Acceleration or Deceleration

The Internet-connected ecosystem consists of two big buckets—the Internet of Digital (IoD) and the Internet of Things (IoT). The IoD primarily consists of screen devices that allow both data consumption and creation—smartphones, laptops, and smart TVs. The IoT is effectively everything else—connecting the physical-first world. Not only is the thing universe very large—trillions of things, but also very broad, consisting of simple inanimate objects such as street lights, door sensors, and asset trackers, as well as more complex things such as cars, trucks, controllers, and robots.

So, it is unsurprising that you need a large portfolio of antennas to connect those things. These antennas need to have electrical characteristics that allow integration with the radios and electronics of the device. Radio technology choices continue to grow in the short-range wireless domain, such as Ultra-Wideband (UWB), and the Wide-Area Network (WAN) domain, such as 5G and its variants of Reduced Capability (RedCap) and enhanced RedCap (eRedCap).

Antennas also need form factors that align with operational, functional, and device size/shape characteristics. Some antennas are very small, such as Surface-Mount Technology (SMT) antennas; others maximize reception and connection performance, such as the stick form factor external antenna. Most IoT antennas are designed to fit within the housing of a device or machine; in fact, external antennas accounted for just 11.4% of antennas in 2024.

ABI Research has just released the latest IoT antenna forecasts. They consist of antenna shipments for eight different antenna form factors, cut across 14 different connectivity technologies, custom and off-the-shelf, 14 application segments, and 9 vertical markets across 6 regions. Antenna form factors include Three-Dimensional (3D)-printed, external, Flexible-Printed Circuit (FPC), metal stamp, patch, Printed Circuit Board (PCB) trace, SMT, and wire helix.

The new forecasts show a market still recovering from post-pandemic effects of inflation and growth normalization, and interestingly, from the collapse of smartphone sales. Overall, IoT antenna shipment forecasts were lowered relative to the last update of ABI Research’s IoT Antennas market data (MD-IOTH-103). Short-Range Wireless (SRW) device shipments, which are the highest volume, drove the majority of the shipment decline in the following markets:

• Home Appliances: Home appliance adoption has decreased partly due to higher interest rates depressing home sales and revised lower penetration rate forecasts for connected appliances within the appliance shipment Total Addressable Market (TAM).
• Hearables: Growth has decreased due to continued pressures on consumer spending, including the collapse in smartphone sales. While smartphone sales are expected to rebound,  antenna shipments in 2028 in this category have declined by 28% compared to previous forecasts.
• Smartwatches: Smartwatches and well-being wearables have benefited from the shift to more use as healthcare wearables. However, post-pandemic growth has flattened. As a result, antenna shipments in 2028 in this category have declined by 42% compared to previous forecasts.
• Video Surveillance Market: Wi-Fi camera growth as a share of the video surveillance category has not materialized. Note that video surveillance in this dataset applies to business-use cameras and not home-use cameras. Video surveillance cameras in businesses are expected to remain connected mainly over fixed-line technologies, with cellular increasing as a connectivity technology. It should be noted that Wi-Fi 6, 7, and 8 may change the adoption of Wi-Fi in this category, but that is unclear at this point.

While both IoT device growth and smartphone growth (which lowered hearables shipments) are expected to recover to see a less choppy and consistent trend, the cellular IoT market provides an interesting twist to antenna market development. The reason is that Cat-1bis is becoming the dominant cellular technology category in IoT devices. By 2028, it will account for 25% of all cellular IoT device shipments but its impact on the cellular IoT antenna shipments will be that Cat-1bis only uses a single antenna. Cat-1bis is relatively new, only becoming a dominant force in the last 2 years. Prior antenna forecasts did not include its impact. Besides cumulative cellular IoT device and gateway shipments from 2022 to 2028 having lowered by 26%, existing 4G solutions using 2 to 4 antennas will be replaced by 1 antenna in Cat-1bis devices, lowering overall cellular IoT antenna shipment forecasts further.

Looking ahead, some key trends will support IoT antenna growth. IoT antenna Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), device OEMs, and cellular module vendors should consider these market developments relative to their product roadmaps.

1. First Cat-1bis, Later 5G eRedCap: Cat-1bis adoption has become a sensation because Long Term Evolution (LTE) networks have great coverage, while fewer antennas lower the device BOM. However, LTE networks will shut down as early as 2029 and will be replaced by 5G. The 5G successor to Cat-1bis will be eRedCap. eRedCap is an IoT technology for low-throughput devices and will replace Cat-1bis. However, Cat-1bis is setting the standard for device design, so there will be pressure on eRedCap for a similar capability to require just one antenna.
2. Satellite: With the development of new standards from The Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) that allow cellular protocols to use satellite links, the antenna market should get a boost. These standards are for Narrowband Non-Terrestrial Network) NB-NTN communicating data to satellites using the Narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) protocol, and New Radio Non-Terrestrial Network (NR-NTN) communicating satellite data over the 5G New Radio (NR) protocol. It is unclear if the boost will be to bigger or different antennas to enable reliable connections to satellites, or more antennas. These protocols may also drive more custom antenna development, which accounts for 60% of total antenna shipments today. Regardless, the 3GPP standard will allow any 4G or 5G device to connect to a satellite. If the cellular module has the right software, more cellular devices will be connecting over satellite.
3. The Dominance of Bluetooth® and Wi-Fi: Bluetooth® and Wi-Fi are the #1 and #2 drivers for antennas, holding 60+% of the IoT antenna market from 2024 to 2030. The bigger markets for these technologies are hearables, smart home, and home appliances, with North America holding the largest share of these technologies’ antenna shipments. PCB trace is the top choice for antennas in both categories. However, external antennas are #2 in Wi-Fi and growing due to the continued evolution of Wi-Fi6 to Wi-Fi7 and Wi-Fi8. SMT antennas are #2 in Bluetooth® and growing as devices miniaturize and connect on Gigahertz (GHz) frequency bands.
4. Software Platforms: One of the challenges with the antenna market is the slow development cycle, typically happening at the end of the device development process. Antenna performance can often only be tested after an antenna type is built into the prototype. And as can happen, the antenna design will go through several design iterations to achieve the best performance, delaying device launch. Several antenna OEMs are trying to break this friction point using software platforms that will identify the right antenna type for a device use case and placement in the device. Examples of companies offering software platforms include Ignion with the Oxion platform, KyoceraAVX with the IoT Solution Optimizer, and Taoglas with the Antenna Integrator platform. Artificial intelligence (AI) will also be an accelerant to these platforms, helping both in the device design and in making recommendations for parts and materials to build the antenna.