Will This Year’s NTN and IoT Breakthroughs Encourage Telcos to Rethink Their Roadmaps?

The year 2025 has been marked with many milestones in the NTN landscape. New Radio (NR) for Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTNs), The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) standard that enables 5G devices to connect to a 5G core via satellite, has evolved from a “PowerPoint technology” to a fully-fledged, demonstrable technology. Earlier in the year, Eutelsat OneWeb, along with MediaTek and Airbus, completed the first successful NR-NTN demonstration over a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) network. Since then, additional demonstrations have taken place over Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) networks by JSAT and Intelsat, and other LEO networks, Omnispace and AST SpaceMobile. Taiwanese Telco, Chunghwa Telecom, along with the Institute for Information Industry of the Industrial Technology Research Institute in Taiwan, also achieved a global first in two-way video calls using the 3GPP 5G NR-NTN standard in the ST-2 GEO satellite.

Trials and demonstrations are also giving way to the real thing. Commercial deployments are starting to take flight, and big satellite–telco partnerships are gaining serious momentum. Case in point: T-Mobile’s Starlink-powered “T-Satellite” service, now blanketing the United States with coverage and already boasting over 1.8 million subscribers. Not wanting to be left on the launchpad, EchoStar—the parent of Hughes Network and EchoStar Mobile—is finally putting its long-idled S-band spectrum to work. The company has unveiled plans to pour a hefty US$5 billion into a shiny new software-defined LEO network, aiming to deliver talk, text, and broadband straight to your phone via the NTN standard. As a seemingly final win for the NTN standard, AST Space Mobile announced its approval to use the globally harmonized S-band for cellular phone services, more than likely via the NTN standard.

LEO satellite networks—especially new agile companies like Starlink and AST SpaceMobile—have ignited a fire under the NTN and Direct-to-Cellular (D2C)/Direct-to-Device (D2D) market. Even the old guard—Globalstar, Iridium, and now EchoStar—are “dusting off their space suits” to join the race to connect proliferated Internet of Things (IoT) worldwide. The space industry’s enthusiasm is unmistakable, but this is less certain with telcos. New infrastructure supporting NTN technologies and standards is rolling out faster, broader, and with fewer constraints than anything most telcos can currently manage. Telcos, meanwhile, are stuck in a corporate paradox: investors expect safe and steady dividends, not risky Research and Development (R&D) moonshots. They’re forced to operate more conservatively, while trying to market themselves as nimble tech innovators. In this way, telcos want hyperscaler profits with monopoly protections—an awkward mix that tends to stall progress.

The satellite world isn’t exactly handing them a neat roadmap. SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile are pursuing solutions outside the 3GPP NTN standard—approaches that, at least for now, do not require NTN chipsets or satellite gateway base station upgrades. This creates additional uncertainty for telcos determining how and when to align with NTN technologies. What’s more, the proliferation of new sovereign space systems around the world brings into question whether a telco should wait to align with its own nation’s space connectivity ambitions (which may never materialize) or outsource its space capacity from another nation. While some telcos hesitate to allocate valuable spectrum for NTN services, ongoing consolidation and spectrum acquisitions are driving a need for differentiation and agility—opening the door for these services now.

Interestingly, some of the most significant progress in telco–satellite collaboration for NTN is happening in regions with strong government involvement—particularly in Asia-Pacific—where state-backed mandates, funding, and manpower are driving testing and deployment. In addition, the region’s manufacturing base and supply chain strengths are accelerating the adaptation of network equipment, chipsets, and hardware for NTN. This stands in contrast to space infrastructure, which is still largely procured and operated by Western nations. The result is a unique NTN landscape—one that bridges not only two industries (telecommunications and space), but also the strategic activities of both the Eastern and Western hemispheres.

So, are telcos ready to embrace NTN services? Judging by the growing list of operators—including T-Mobile (U.S.), One NZ (New Zealand), Optus (Australia), Rogers Communications (Canada), Salt (Switzerland), Entel (Chile), KDDI (Japan), and Kyivstar (Ukraine)—that are actively rolling out Starlink’s D2D services for smartphones and the IoT, the answer appears to be a resounding yes. We’re also seeing that telcos competing against those partnered with Starlink are choosing to align with alternative satellite operators—such as AST SpaceMobile, Skylo, or Iridium—signaling their own commitment to the NTN frontier. In greenfield NTN markets, the selection of satellite networks doesn’t appear to be driven by a particular standard or technology, but rather by telcos looking to copilot with the most nimble space partners with fast time to market and broad user reach. Once the satellite network is operational and service can be reliably delivered to users, telcos tend to follow quickly with commercial launches—regardless of whether the deployment aligns with a particular standard. The technology stacks that enable speed and scale are the winners.

We are rapidly entering an age where NTN services can connect commercial off-the-shelf devices such as smartphones and IoT devices from virtually anywhere. The technology is starting to take flight, demonstrations have validated performance, and commercial deployments are scaling rapidly. Yet, telcos and satellite operators face a crossroads: cling to cautious, legacy operating models or embrace the risks—and rewards—of aligning with space players that are pushing aggressively into the NTN frontier. The reality is that NTN will not wait for telcos to sort out their hesitations, nor does it appear that every telco will wait for 3GPP’s standard. The reality of Starlink’s current iteration of the service is showing that link budget limitations and current network capacity will limit the service's potential to move beyond test messaging. Indeed, this is why the L and S bands are being sought by SpaceX, AST, Omnispace, and the like. What's more, with the eventual proliferation of NTN-capable devices, which will reach nearly 2 billion by 2030 with handsets alone, embracing standards leveraging globally harmonized spectrum will inevitably unlock more revenue opportunities, as superior link budget and, therefore, service performance and spectrum planning will enable far more use cases. Takeaways for operators looking to build an NTN strategy include:

• Form Alliances: Telcos should actively partner with satellite operators—whether that be Starlink, AST SpaceMobile, or others—rather than risk being sidelined as services scale.
• Prioritize Speed-to-Market: Market share is being captured by those that can deliver reliable NTN services quickly, regardless of adherence to a single standard. This does not mean the standard is off the table in the future.
• Leverage Government Backing: In regions where state support accelerates testing and deployment, telcos should align closely with government programs to reduce risk and secure first-mover advantage.
• Invest in Flexibility: Build adaptable technology stacks that can support multiple NTN approaches (3GPP and non-standard), ensuring resilience against shifting industry dynamics.
• Differentiate with Services, not Just Spectrum: Telcos must position NTN as part of a broader portfolio of mission-critical, value-added services that go beyond basic connectivity.