The Asset Tracking Market: Where NB-IoT Goes to Struggle

Within the last two months, NTT DoCoMo and DISH Network both announced abandonment of their Narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) networks, choosing to focus on their LTE footprints. These moves were largely unforeseen, with NTT DoCoMo’s network having been operational for less than one year, and DISH’s NB-IoT deployment coming off the back of extensive preparations in 2017 and 2018 and a bullish attitude at the beginning of 2019. In both cases, the premature shutdown of networks reflects the low uptake of NB-IoT connectivity solutions and the lack of devices entering the network.

While the decision by DISH in the United States may see strong competition from major Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) such as T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T, it is important to note that these organizations’ NB-IoT networks have also not seen major uptake. With Sigfox and LoRa without a major footprint, and following the sunset of 2G across the country, the United States provides a good test case for uptake and perceived relative merits of Cat-M and NB-IoT. So far, the news from component vendors does not bode well for massive NB-IoT uptake, with chipset and module vendors seeing far lower uptake of NB-IoT-only than of Cat-M/NB-IoT, suggesting that NB-IoT is seen at best as an add-on for additional flexibility. u-blox, for instance, sees more sales of its Cat-M/NB-IoT in a month than it ever has of its NB-IoT-only module.

In the asset tracking market, one of the spaces with the most IoT growth potential, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are turning away from NB-IoT deployments. T-Mobile’s launch, in partnership with Roambee of, its subscription NB-IoT tracking service was less successful than planned; while the US$10/device/month price point might seem attractive at first sight, end users were not convinced of the value against the benefits of the technology for tracking assets accurately and in near-real-time across the T-Mobile network. Roambee is moving back to its traditional Go-to-Market (GTM) strategy for global tracking with longer device deployment times, using Cat-M for the United States and Cat-1/2G/3G for global roaming. From an MNO perspective, T-Mobile’s NB-IoT network, launched in 2018, has seen little device subscription, while further tracking solutions deployed by MNOs’ focus on Cat-M solutions (AT&T—AT1 multi-sensor Cat-M/NB-IoT device, Verizon—Cat-M multi-sensor critical asset tracker, Vodafone—Cat-M/NB-IoT smart label tracking device).

While the GSMA noted a large increase in device connections (100 million passed in January 2020), the successes were largely China-based (where NB-IoT is beloved for reasons other than the technology), with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom noted as holding the most significant successes. The China-centric technology will likely face further challenges in the face of the U.S.-China trade war, while the rejection of Huawei by the United States both nationally and through pressure in Europe will make MNOs think further about the inclusion of the 5G technology, at a time when there is no clear winner or direction between the cellular LPWAN technologies there. Increased NB-IoT roaming partnerships among European MNOs (e.g., Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, Telia, and Swisscom in April) is an important step to consolidating an otherwise fragmented network, but increasing numbers of Cat-M networks are also making their appearances (most recently with O2’s decision to build a Cat-M network in the United Kingdom). In Canada, Brazil, Mexico, and Korea, among others, Cat-M networks are further being prioritized.

From a technological perspective, the market enthusiasm for NB-IoT appears to be dampening. Technical challenges abound: handovers for roaming are not supported, resulting in greater power consumption through failovers and limiting the technology’s usefulness in mobile use cases (such as asset tracking), and consequently limiting the impact of MNO roaming partnerships. The technology struggles with power-saving features such as Power Saving Mode (PSM) and Extended Discontinuous Reception (eDRX), on account of its difficulties with staying connected to the network. The data bandwidth is sometimes prohibitively low, limiting its ability to carry out Over-the-Air (OTA) firmware or configuration updates (a major IoT requirement in the tracking market) and requiring an additional Cat-M connection to make this possible. Pricing also remains a problem, with payment per Mb still preferred over payment per bundle of messages. With the price point for Cat-M—module and connectivity—being only a few dollars higher, and the technology’s enabling of roaming, low-power consumption, and OTA configurability, this is likely to see greater adoption by MNOs going forward, as it already has by OEMs in the asset tracking space where these features are essential in real-time tracking use cases (with NB-IoT serving a range of stationary or intermittent reporting use cases).

The challenges facing NB-IoT in the asset tracking market will likely create an additional boost for LoRa technology in particular. It is worth noting that, while NTT DoCoMo abandoned its NB-IoT rollout, it has been investing in LoRa technology since 2016. MNO investment in LoRa was common at this time as a stopgap measure while new cellular LPWAN standards were rolled out by the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP). This investment and rollout of LoRa support by network operators has continued, with over 100 operators deploying LoRaWAN networks by the end of 2018. Orange is one of the biggest adopters of LoRa technology, which it interestingly sees as a complement of Cat-M. LoRa and LTE-M complementarity is further recognized by the LoRa Alliance. As a dominant European technology in the tracking market, it will be interesting to see whether LoRa is able to capitalize on NB-IoT market share, and what the relationship of these two with Cat-M will look like.

Fundamentally, NB-IoT and Cat-M have advantages for employment in different use cases. NB-IoT’s role in the asset tracking market, however, is likely to be limited due to its technical challenges, which restrict it to less mobile and more intermittent reporting. The rest of the world will likely look to the United States for the success of the rollouts of cellular LPWANs, and notice that NB-IoT network device subscription numbers are low. While Vodafone in Europe remains an avid supporter of NB-IoT through its relationship with Huawei, and roaming partnerships on European NB-IoT networks are pushed further, other network operators on a global basis are looking with renewed focus at Cat-M.

The shift by device manufacturers and component vendors away from NB-IoT-only connectivity and toward multi-mode wide-area technologies is decisive. NB-IoT can provide flexibility for certain use cases or complement Cat-M networks where coverage is limited, but the technology is unlikely to be the main connector in the space in the long term. While confusion and fragmentation reign, LoRa and Sigfox may benefit; good coverage in many countries in Europe and further plans for global roaming (on Sigfox in particular through Eutelsat satellite launches) are likely to cover a number of use cases otherwise taken by NB-IoT. No single connectivity solution is suitable for the space, however, as the use-case will remain all-important. The space remains open for the principal Low-Power Wide-Area Network (LPWAN) challengers.