Robo Trucks Still Fiction Not Fact

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3Q 2019 | IN-5598

Despite numerous headlines declaring driverless, self-driving, or robot vehicles, very little if any commercial usage is underway beyond closed-course operations in the United States. A recent example includes Alphabet’s Waymo that has been testing since 2016. Its latest vehicles, heading to Florida, are still manually operated by trained drivers, and were initially run on closed courses. Heavy-duty leader Daimler Trucks (DTNA) is expected to begin production in September on its 2020 Cascadia with Detroit Connect 5.0. This will offer Society of Automotive Engineers’ (SAE) Level 2 partial automation features, initially with automated braking, steering, and forward lateral control. DTNA just delivered two eCascadias for customer testing. In partnership with Gatik AI, Walmart has been testing “self-driving” Ford Transit vans that are planned for middle-mile deliveries. The vans will also be operated by drivers in the pilot.

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Headlines Look to the Future

NEWS


Despite numerous headlines declaring driverless, self-driving, or robot vehicles, very little if any commercial usage is underway beyond closed-course operations in the United States. A recent example includes Alphabet’s Waymo that has been testing since 2016. Its latest vehicles, heading to Florida, are still manually operated by trained drivers, and were initially run on closed courses. Heavy-duty leader Daimler Trucks (DTNA) is expected to begin production in September on its 2020 Cascadia with Detroit Connect 5.0. This will offer Society of Automotive Engineers’ (SAE) Level 2 partial automation features, initially with automated braking, steering, andforward lateral control. DTNA just delivered two eCascadias for customer testing. In partnership with Gatik AI, Walmart has been testing “self-driving” Ford Transit vans that are planned for middle-mile deliveries.The vans will also be operated by drivers in the pilot.

Proceeding with Caution, but Competition Rising

IMPACT

 

Both the eCascadia and the anticipated Tesla Semi have seen delays of at least a year. It is widely expected that full autonomy will include electrification, although many light- and medium-duty commercial vehicles are leveraging hybrid technology. Startup Nikola Motors is moving ahead with hydrogen models, but DTNA is questioning the physics of Tesla’s proposed solution. Until recently, the deserts of Arizona have been quiet; now, China-based TuSimple, with backing from UPS Ventures and with its recent unicorn status, is running test pilots (TuSimple had a collaboration with the U.S. Post Office earlier this year). The startup is growing its revenue-generating fleet to 50 trucks. However, each of these modified trucks with Artificial Intelligence (AI) operates with several technicians in the cab with plans for “driver out” to take effect by 2021.

Competition for bragging rights, cost savings, and revenue generation continue to draw numerous startups, including some with deep pockets and tech industry pedigrees. Waymo has plans to expand its semi-truck operations and began testing on Phoenix highways in late May. The trucks are said to leverage their custom suite of sensors used in their minivans. Embark, which has hauled cargo for Amazon and has over US$47 million in funding, does not wish to become an Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM); it would rather modify existing vehicles such as TuSimple’s and Waymo’s, among others.

Other rising competition includes Pronto.ai. Pronto’s “Copilot,” like the Cascadia, will offer SAE Level 2 technology through a camera-based solution with lane keeping and stop-and-go assistance for about US$5,000; a customer announcement is expected soon.

To date, Starsky Robotics appears to have the lead in testing fully unmanned trucks, completing test runs on a public Florida highway in June. A heavily experienced driver acted as a remote operator for the first and last mile. The company expects to ramp up from 3 to 25 trucks by next year. The company already has partnerships that include traditional operations with Penske Truck Leasing,C.H. Robinson, and Schneider Logistics.

Largely Incremental versus Exponential Change

RECOMMENDATIONS


Despite the successful primarily manned testing and early revenue operations, there are no known regulatory approvals or fully autonomous methods to address the first and last mile for heavy-duty big rigs through challenging urban and suburban locations. Additional cultural acceptance is another factor, along with a presumed impact to the 1.7 million heavy-duty and tractor-trailer drivers on the road today as per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Successful revenue-generating routes will remain highway-only for the foreseeable future, with ABI Research not forecasting a material level of SAE Level 4 shipments prior to 2023 in North America.

The journey from SAE Level 2, early commercial OEM deployment this year to ubiquitous highly automated Level 4 and fully automated Level 5 is still years away, which does not grab attention or internet clicks. Many other opportunities—including closed courses (e.g., airports, ports, mines, oil and gas operations, universities, corporate campuses)—are early movers, with opportunity growing for altering the role of “drivers” in vehicles equipped with significant AI.

Even today, the new heavy-duty trucks from model year 2020 and beyond can still provide a valuable return on investment, with operational cost reductions of up to 30% due to less maintenance, less parts replacements, and more fuel efficiencies as well as driver satisfaction with easier and safer operations based on technology advancements, greater attention to user experience, and safe-operation key performance indicators for companies.

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