INDEX

5G: Subscribers, Traffic, and Revenue

This is the current update for ABI Research's expanding view for the 5G market view for Consumer Subscriber Enhanced Mobile Broadband, which is primarily the mmWave rollout. ABI Research examines its historical database for indicators of technology diffusion for 2G, 3G, and 4G to indicate accelerating trends in subscribers, traffic, and revenue.  

Subscriber Uptake
Based on this and a specific assessment of over 60 leading countries, ABI Research forecasts the subscriber uptake through 2026 and aggregates into regional summaries. NA, AP, and WE are leading markets for 5G. 

Traffic Growth
ABI Research also considers the historical data for traffic growth. It is a well-known fact that subscribers consume more data when higher data speeds are available. ABI Research looks at the mass-market usage of 5G technology and conservatively estimates that a 5G subscriber (i.e., 5G mmWave) will show at least a 10X increase in data usage when on 5G mmWave, while continuing to use 4G services when 5G mmWave is not available.   

Revenue Growth
Again, we look to the historical archives of ABI Research to determine market-wide data traffic and revenues. Here, a regional industry view is computed based on total data revenue/total data traffic to yield US$/gigabyte. ABI Research then plots US$/gigabyte versus cumulative data traffic, from 2G-to-4G, including forecasting to 2026.  Data traffic and revenues are based on mobile broadband traffic, and not legacy SMS narrowband data.

Because 5G mmWave represents a step-function in data capacity, we decouple the mmWave traffic from the industrywide 2G-to-4G learning curve and forecast 5G revenues based on a different learning curve. ABI forecasts consumer revenue for Enhanced Mobile Broadband through 2026. Forecasted are not total operator revenues, but rather data traffic revenues. 

Use Case Verticals
In addition to the forecasting for enhanced Mobile Broadband, we include for the first time, a 5G summary for three verticals based on other ABI Research:

  • Automotive eMBB and URLLC
  • Artificial/Virtual Reality
  • Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems 

Ecosystem Activity
With the flurry of activity on 5G, we include listings of publicly announced agreements, demos, roadmaps, trials, and commercial deployments.  Agreements and Demos are the largest categories, and for demos, we include what are often called lab trials, field trials, technology trials, field tests, etc. We count it is as a trial when it could follow with a commercial rollout.

Table of Contents

Charts

  1. Subscriptions by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  2. Data Traffic by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  3. Data Revenue by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  4. Subscriptions by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  5. Data Traffic by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  6. Data Revenue by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  7. Subscriptions by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  8. Data Traffic by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  9. Data Revenue by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  10. Subscriptions by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  11. Data Traffic by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  12. Data Revenue by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  13. Subscriptions by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  14. Data Traffic by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  15. Data Revenue by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  16. Subscriptions by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  17. Data Traffic by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  18. Data Revenue by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  19. Subscriptions by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  20. Data Traffic by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  21. Data Revenue by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  22. Subscriptions by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  23. Data Traffic by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  24. Data Revenue by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026

Tables

Click a table title to see what's included in the data.
  1. Subscriptions by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  2. Data Traffic by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  3. Data Revenue by Technology, Africa, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  4. Subscriptions by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  5. Data Traffic by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  6. Data Revenue by Technology, Middle East, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  7. Subscriptions by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  8. Data Traffic by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  9. Data Revenue by Technology, Eastern Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  10. Subscriptions by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  11. Data Traffic by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  12. Data Revenue by Technology, Latin America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  13. Subscriptions by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  14. Data Traffic by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  15. Data Revenue by Technology, North America, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  16. Subscriptions by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  17. Data Traffic by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  18. Data Revenue by Technology, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  19. Subscriptions by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  20. Data Traffic by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  21. Data Revenue by Technology, Western Europe, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  22. Subscriptions by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  23. Data Traffic by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  24. Data Revenue by Technology, World Markets, Forecast: 2014 to 2026
  25. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Agreements
  26. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Commercial
  27. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Demos
  28. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Roadmap
  29. 5G Ecosystem Activity, Trials
  30. Automotive 5G Subscriptions by Type, World Markets, Forecast: 2016 to 2026
  31. AR/VR Device Shipments by Device Type, World Markets, Forecast: 2016 to 2026
  32. sUAS Platform Shipments by Platform Type, World Markets, Forecast: 2016 to 2026