TV Channels Will Become Scarce

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3Q 2014 | IN-1020412

Scheduled Programming Under Threat, while Linear Is Not Under Any Threat


At IBC, we had many discussions about the future of TV. We must disagree with the Ericsson Consumer Labs’ assertion that in 5 years the number of live, linear (i.e., scheduled) channels will be the same as we see today. Manual scheduling of content—in which programmers align the content with the best available audience based on time of day—will be important primarily for a few “halo brands” and markets, which is due to low ARPU in pay TV platforms or low discretionary income in free-to-air markets that do not allow the evolution of DVR or OTT services.

However, linear programming—where one piece of content ends and the next seamlessly begins—is going nowhere. The ability to keep consumers engaged in subscription, ad supported, and blended business models is consistently tied to monetization for all providers.

The only change we see is increased investment in shor...

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