Mobile Application Storefronts

Mobile applications for smartphones are the hottest topic in the mobile industry today. Spurred by Apple's storybook success with the App Store -- more than 3 billion iPhone apps downloaded between July 2008 and the present, from a library of more than 150,000 -- a broad variety of industry players from device manufacturers and MNOs to platform vendors and thousands of content developers have scrambled to catch the mobile app store wave. Dozens of mobile app stores have sprung up to sell and distribute mobile applications for smartphones. Yet success in distributing mobile apps is not guaranteed, and the mobile application storefront business model faces formidable challenges.

This study explores those challenges in detail, outlines potential solutions to overcoming them, and describes emerging alternative distribution channels and delivery mechanisms for mobile apps and content. Forecasts include total downloads by smartphone OS and by region, market share percentages of downloads by smartphone OS and by region, retail value of paid apps sold by smartphone OS and by region.

Table of Contents

  • Executive Brief: Top-Line Forecast
  • Executive Brief: Drivers
  • Executive Brief: Inhibitors
  • Executive Brief: Market Share
  • Executive Brief: Summary and Strategic Recommendations
  • 1. Executive Summary
    • 1.1. Market Opportunity Overview
    • 1.2. Market Drivers
      • 1.2.1. Demand Drivers
      • 1.2.2. Supply Drivers
    • 1.3. Market Barriers
      • 1.3.1. Demand Barriers
      • 1.3.2. Supply Barriers
    • 1.4. Market Trends
    • 1.5. Forecasts
      • 1.5.1. Total Downloads
      • 1.5.2. Total Revenue from Paid Apps
      • 1.5.3. Apple Dominance
  • 2. Conclusions and Recommendations
    • 2.1. Conclusions
      • 2.1.1. App Stores Will Peak in 2013 and Start to Decline
      • 2.1.2. OEM/Platform Stores Will Dominate the App Store Landscape
      • 2.1.3. Of Those, Apple's App Store Will Dominate
      • 2.1.4. MNO Stores Will Gain Market Presence, Third-Party Stores Will Lose Ground
      • 2.1.5. North American and European Markets Will Dominate
      • 2.1.6. Brands Will Use Dominant Free Apps to Market Themselves
      • 2.1.7. Paid Apps Will Be Domain of Games and Enterprise
      • 2.1.8. Apps for Smartphones Will Dominate
    • 2.2. Recommendations
      • 2.2.1. Change Business Drivers for MNOs and Third-Party App Stores or Fade Away
      • 2.2.2. App Stores Should Build Recommendation Engines
      • 2.2.3. MNOs Concentrate on Standardized APIs, Single Business Deals
      • 2.2.4. MNOs Seek Out Aggregators
      • 2.2.5. Brands Should Aggressively Build Apps as Marketing Tools
      • 2.2.6. Nokia -- Preload Native Clients for Ovi
      • 2.2.7. Android -- Improve the Web Site
      • 2.2.8. BlackBerry App World -- Stay the Course
      • 2.2.9. Microsoft -- Strike Soon or It Is Over
      • 2.2.10. Developers -- Seek Out Current Ways to Overcome Fragmentation, Discoverability
  • 3. Market Overview
    • 3.1. Applications and Content Defined
    • 3.2. Mobile Application Storefront Ecosystem
      • 3.2.1. Mobile Devices
      • 3.2.2. Mobile OS Platforms Defined
      • 3.2.3. MNO Services
      • 3.2.4. Application Portals and Web Sites
      • 3.2.5. Application Developers
      • 3.2.6. Support
      • 3.2.7. Security
  • 4. Market Trends and Issues
    • 4.1. Mobile Application Storefront Landscape
      • 4.1.1. Apple
      • 4.1.2. BlackBerry App World
      • 4.1.3. Android Market
      • 4.1.4. Ovi
      • 4.1.5. Windows Marketplace
      • 4.1.6. Palm App Catalog
      • 4.1.7. Bada
      • 4.1.8. China Mobile
      • 4.1.9. TIM Brasil App Store
      • 4.1.10. PocketGear
      • 4.1.11. GetJar
      • 4.1.12. Mobango
    • 4.2. The Mobile OS Battle
      • 4.2.1. Apple
      • 4.2.2. Android
      • 4.2.3. BlackBerry
      • 4.2.4. Symbian
      • 4.2.5. Windows Mobile
      • 4.2.6. Palm
      • 4.2.7. Which Mobile OS Platforms Win?
    • 4.3. Addressing Mobile OS Fragmentation
      • 4.3.1. Middle Layer Developer Platforms
      • 4.3.2. Aggregators
      • 4.3.3. Web Apps
    • 4.4. Addressing Device Fragmentation
    • 4.5. Addressing Application Discovery
      • 4.5.1. Third-Party Reviews Online
    • 4.6. What Are the Business Drivers for App Stores, App Developers?
    • 4.7. App Store Business Models/Revenue Options
      • 4.7.1. Free
      • 4.7.2. Ad-Supported
      • 4.7.3. Ad Networks? Google's and Apple's Focus
      • 4.7.4. Paid
      • 4.7.5. In App Purchasing, Freemium
      • 4.7.6. Paid Versus Free Apps -- Where Will It Go?
    • 4.8. Which App Stores Will Win?
      • 4.8.1. What Type of Apps Will Win?
      • 4.8.2. Apps Migrate Away from Storefronts
    • 4.9. Analytics
    • 4.10. Content Vaults
    • 4.11. ABI Survey Results
  • 5. Technology Issues
    • 5.1. Mobile OS Platforms
      • 5.1.1. Apple iPhone
      • 5.1.2. BlackBerry
      • 5.1.3. Android
      • 5.1.4. Symbian
      • 5.1.5. Windows Mobile
      • 5.1.6. Mobile Linux
      • 5.1.7. Web OS
      • 5.1.8. Java
      • 5.1.9. BREW
    • 5.2. Transaction/Billing
    • 5.3. Application Installation and Configuration
      • 5.3.1. Over-the-Air (OTA)
      • 5.3.2. PC Side-Loading
      • 5.3.3. Personal Area Network Transfer
  • 6. Key Industry Players
    • 6.1. AT&T
    • 6.2. Distimo, Flurry
    • 6.3. envIO Networks
    • 6.4. Google
    • 6.5. Handmark
    • 6.6. Intel
    • 6.7. Microsoft
    • 6.8. Mob4Hire
    • 6.9. mPortal
    • 6.10. Qualcomm
    • 6.11. Research in Motion
    • 6.12. Tapulous
    • 6.13. Samsung
    • 6.14. Xtreme Labs
  • 7. Market Forecasts
    • 7.1. Forecast Methodology
    • 7.2. Revenue Definition
    • 7.3. Market Forecasts
      • 7.3.1. Smartphone Subscribers by Mobile OS Platform
      • 7.3.2. Application Downloads from App Stores by Mobile OS Platform
      • 7.3.3. Application Downloads by Region
      • 7.3.4. Application Downloads by Distribution Channel
      • 7.3.5. Available Applications in App Stores, Paid Versus Free
      • 7.3.6. Revenue Generated by Mobile Paid Apps by Mobile OS Platform
      • 7.3.7. Revenue Generated by Mobile Paid Apps by Region
  • 8. Company Directory
  • 9. Acronyms

Tables

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  1. Smartphone Subscribers by Mobile OS Platform, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  2. Application Downloads from App Stores, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  3. Application Downloads from App Stores, Middle East & Africa, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  4. Application Downloads from App Stores, Latin America, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  5. Application Revenue from App Stores, Paid Apps, North America, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  6. Application Revenue from App Stores, Paid Apps, Europe, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  7. Application Revenue from App Stores, Paid Apps, Asia-Pacific, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  8. Application Revenue from App Stores, Paid Apps, Middle East & Africa, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  9. Application Revenue from App Stores, Paid Apps, Latin America, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  10. Smartphone Subscribers by Mobile OS Platform, Market Share, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  11. Application Downloads from App Stores, Market Share by Mobile OS Platform, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  12. Application Downloads from App Stores by Mobile OS Platform, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  13. Application Downloads from App Stores Market Share by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  14. Application Revenue from App Stores, Market Share by Mobile OS Platform, Paid Apps, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  15. Application Revenue from App Stores, Market Share by Region, Paid Apps, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2016
  16. Application Downloads from App Stores by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  17. Application Downloads by Distribution Channel, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  18. Available Applications in App Stores, Paid vs. Free, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  19. Application Revenue from App Stores by Mobile OS Platform, Paid Apps, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  20. Application Revenue from App Stores by Region, Paid Apps, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  21. Application Downloads from App Stores, North America, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  22. Application Downloads from App Stores, Europe, Forecast: 2009 to 2015

Charts

  1. World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015 Application Downloads by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  2. World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015 Application Revenue by Region, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  3. World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015 Smartphone Subscribers by Mobile OS Platform, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015
  4. World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015 Available Applications in App Stores, Paid vs. Free, World Market, Forecast: 2009 to 2015