The Transformative Technology sector looks at innovative technologies that are likely to transform the consumer lifestyle, enable new use cases, and increase productivity, while significantly reducing both capital and operation expenditures. The topics covered provide deep analysis of specific technologies already enabling new use cases such as augmented reality, virtual reality, wearables, consumer, industrial, and service robotics, and smart cities. The sector will also cover technologies that are beyond the immediate horizon, which will truly transform business and society over a five to fifteen year period. These include Cognitive and Neuromorphic Computing, Quantum Computing, 5G networks and beyond, and new materials and lithographic processes that will likely extend Moore’s Law to new milestones with materials, such as carbon nanotubes and graphene.
In mid-June, ABI Research analyst Jake Saunders blogged about China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)’s expectations that “20% of the Non-Chinese 3G Market [will] be based on TD-SCDMA in 2020,” and that TD-SCDMA would to capture 50% of the domestic Chinese 3G market. The Chinese government is certainly very bold and very much has the attitude of “build it and they will come.” While that philosophy worked with the Olympics and it has worked with the Chinese economy as a whole, the government's statements on its 3G market expectations are quite daring. To put it into perspective, the Chinese government's stated ambitions are equivalent to 1.4 billion subscriptions, based on ABI Research's latest 2014 subscriber forecast (2020 subscriber forecast is not yet available). How feasible is that? In this ABI Insight, Jake further examines these expectations.