How Feasible Is it for TD-SCDMA to Take 20% of the Non-Chinese 3G Market?

In mid-June, ABI Research analyst Jake Saunders blogged about China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)’s expectations that “20% of the Non-Chinese 3G Market [will] be based on TD-SCDMA in 2020,” and that TD-SCDMA would to capture 50% of the domestic Chinese 3G market. The Chinese government is certainly very bold and very much has the attitude of “build it and they will come.” While that philosophy worked with the Olympics and it has worked with the Chinese economy as a whole, the government's statements on its 3G market expectations are quite daring. To put it into perspective, the Chinese government's stated ambitions are equivalent to 1.4 billion subscriptions, based on ABI Research's latest 2014 subscriber forecast (2020 subscriber forecast is not yet available). How feasible is that? In this ABI Insight, Jake further examines these expectations.

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