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The End of Dominance for the Industrial Vendor |
NEWS |
ABI Research recently released its most comprehensive tracker of the robotics market to date: Commercial and Industrial Robotics (MD-CIROBO-104). The forecasts therein paint a clear picture of optimism within the industry at large, but projections of growth rates vary widely between different subsectors, verticals, and robot-types.
There was a time when the major industrial robotic vendors. ABB, KUKA AG, FANUC, and Yaskawa, had huge influence on the market, and their fate was directly tied to that of the industry, but this is no longer the case. Following breakneck demand for industrial robots from 2015 to 2017, there was a noted deceleration in 2018, in large part due to the plateau in demand from China.
While generally overemphasized, challenges for the global manufacturing supply chain have affected the industrial robotics market. The slowdown in China has continued in 2019 and is affecting not just Chinese suppliers but also local Asia-Pacific vendors in South Korea and Japan.
The collaborative robotics market has not yet exceeded US$1 billion, so the scope for growth between 2018 and 2021 remains high. That said, Universal Robots, the market leader, has posted stagnant quarterly results in Q3 2019, as it appears a less optimistic outlook in the global manufacturing supply chain has stifled end user willingness to invest. This does not represent a long-term threat, and increased competition between nations in regard to issues like manufacturing, reshoring, and productivity growth makes future investment growth in collaborative robotics assured.
Mobile Robotics |
IMPACT |
Amazon Robotics is the leader that has driven growth in mobile robotics for the last seven years since its acquisition of Kiva Systems. With 256,000 Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) deployed to date, Amazon holds close to 50% of material handling robot market share and is broadening its portfolio of robot subtypes with Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) for transport and delivery. Other AGV developers like Quicktron, JD.com, Geek, Grey Orange, and more are deploying thousands of robots yearly, while AMR developers are just beginning to scale up. Brain Corp has deployed 5,000 systems, primarily in retail, and BlueBotics has deployed some 2,000 robots for intralogistics in and around the supplychain. Meanwhile, MIR, an AMR company acquired by Teradyne in 2018, is beginning to achieve growth rates in excess of the company’s other robotics acquisition and major cobot developer, Universal Robotics.
The distinction between AGVs and AMRs can be contested, but in essence AMRs do not require external infrastructure to localize themselves and are built with sensors and cameras to navigate their environments. Currently, AGVs represent the majority of mobile robot shipments, but by 2030 this will change. While there will be 2.5 million AGVs shipped in 2030, there will be 2.9 million AMRs. This is due to the declining costs of superior navigation and the desire to build flexibility into robotic fleets. Many new verticals, like hospitality, delivery, and infrastructure, will demand that systems that do not require external physical infrastructure move about. While the AGV market will thrive in intralogistics for fulfillment, the challenges faced by many manufacturers demand an incremental automation that does not require the wholesale changing of environmental infrastructure.
In a major example of automation extending to new and important vehicle-types, shipments of automated forklifts are set to grow from 4,000 in 2020 to 455,000 in 2030, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 58.9%. Meanwhile, the revenue for all mobile robotics is set to exceed US$224.8 billion by 2030, compared to US$39.5 billion for industrial and collaborative systems. Among the companies leading in this particular company are French manufacturer Balyo (which partnered with Amazon), Seegrid (which has sold over 800 units), and a number of smaller actors that are just beginning to scale. This oppurtunity is leading vehicle manufacturers like Toyota, Hyster-Yale, and Raymond to partner with robotics companies and brings automation capability in-house. Given that the global shipments for traditional forklifts is close to 1 million, there is huge scope for growth.
Another significant sector for mobile automation will be maintenance and cleaning. There are already over 5,000 autonomous floor scrubbers in U.S. retail stores and real estate, and with Softbank’s deployment of mobile cleaners for offices being rolled out in Asia and the United States, cleaning robots will become normalized throughout the service economy. ABI Research expects commercial cleaning robots will grow from US$155 million in annual revenue to US$18.3 billion in 2030.
Even more esoteric form factors, like quadrupeds, are expected to increase significantly for data collection purposes, particularly for real estate, construction, and industrial inspection. ABI Research predicts that quadrupeds, exemplified by vendors like Boston Dynamics, Zoa Robotics, ANYbotics, and Ghost Robotics, will increase to 29,000 yearly shipments by 2030, with a yearly revenue of US$2.9 billion.
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As mature sectors of the robotics industry achieve growth more in line with established technology markets, mobile robotics is set to create lasting transformative effects across the supply chain and will become increasingly ambitious throughout the global economy.
What to Make of It |
RECOMMENDATIONS |
For those taking a broad overview of the robotics market, such as telcos and chipset vendors, it is essential to take note of the mobile robotics opportunity and see that there will be significant demand for adjacent technologies to provide the infrastructure necessary to power such large fleets: