The Apple AR Rumor Mill Continues Churning, with Real Impact despite Lack of Confirmation

After a couple years of direct involvement in Augmented Reality (AR) on mobile devices, rumors started to circulate about Apple releasing a head-mounted AR device. Leaders continue to come and go, again with no real confirmation of roles, roadmaps, and goals being worked toward, but there are enough pieces in place to paint a compelling picture. Numerous hardware- and software-related investments and acquisitions had been made over the past five years, and Apple’s ARKit has matured to the point where porting it to a Head-Mounted Device (HMD) seems feasible and logical. Patents were found for a potential device, again ramping up expectations, and most recently counter-rumors that the device had been cancelled began, only to be contradicted by further patent confirmation. As it stands, it seems most likely that Apple is working on something headset-related, but anything outside of that is strong speculation.

While both the development and release of an Apple AR headset remain unofficial, the impact of this unconfirmed device has been significant. Even so, Apple continues to push AR through ARKit updates and enabled apps. In late July 2019, a new AR effort called [AR]T Walk was announced, with Apple leading walking tours in six cities with an AR component that showcases digital art.

Few companies have enough sway to impact market trends and discussions by doing nothing (publicly). Without confirming any actual product, Apple has enterprises discussing how an Apple AR headset would help them, how developers could push AR content to a new device, how advertisers could leverage a new Apple AR device, and more. Apple’s impact is normally on the consumer side of things but, as seen with the iPhone and iPad, a consumer product that proves ubiquitous can easily migrate toward enterprise usage.

An Apple AR/Virtual Reality (VR) HMD is a difficult idea from the beginning. Apple is known for, and brings in significant revenue on the back of, its brand power and design. Giving up a few features or missing top-of-the-line specifications here and there is an acceptable outcome for a holistic, well-refined experience, and Apple has attached its brand to that idea. However, the current technologies for AR and VR—displays, sensors, batteries, processors—do not mesh easily with that idea. Apple could never see success with an HMD that looked like a HoloLens or Magic Leap, even with the iOS and Apple ecosystem behind it. At the same time, Apple has a much higher chance of successfully marketing a product that lacks the features of the competition (which today is basically negligible outside of a few up-and-comers such as North) but wins on style and iOS compatibility.

Taking all of this into consideration, it would not be a surprise if Apple never launched a headset; Apple AirPower was so close to launch that AirPods were listing compatibility with the product on boxes, and yet it was killed at the last minute after citing manufacturing and quality standard issues. Both of these factors feel highly possible, with AR/VR pushing new display tech and processing requirements while in turn stressing design capabilities (i.e., the same factors that killed AirPower). Some efforts made on the headset side could likely transition over to the ARKit and mobile device side as well, and all the work and investment happening today, like [AR]T Walk, is certainly not a waste.

It seems there is a consistent struggle with AR and VR. The technology offers an objective, easily understood value; whether it be novel consumer entertainment opportunities, hands free data access, or simply a next generation smart watch like experience, most would agree there is value for everyone somewhere. At the same time, identifying that value and delivering a product that can extract it is incredibly difficult. Even in the enterprise sector, where budgets are more accessible (compared to a mass market consumer viewpoint) and Return on Investment (ROI) can be clearly defined, challenges with device and platform cost, user engagement, content optimization, and more can hold back growth.

Perhaps this is why many enterprises were excited and talking about a non-existent Apple headset; such a device could possibly tip the scales with usability and appeal in the AR and/or VR space. With so little known, however, it’s best to understand current and future needs from a headset, and then identify what is really needed from the hardware. From single screen glanceable devices like RealWear and Google Glass to full-featured devices like HoloLens and Magic Leap, the spectrum on the AR side is well-covered. VR is a similar story, with growing capabilities in standalone VR headsets removing some of the heavy performance requirements once necessary to provide high-end experiences. While an all-in-one device is often appealing, the true value of such a device is often inflated.

As is the case with many markets, there needs to be a healthy balance between aggression and passiveness; enterprise digitization as a whole, where there is tremendous value available for those willing to take risks on tech like blockchain, AR/VR, and AI, is a great example of this. At the same time, however, there needs to be a broad and deep knowledge base before investment to mitigate risk and wasted resources.