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Adoption of Electric Vehicles Remains Challenging but New Drivers are Emerging |
NEWS |
The automotive industry has been desperately trying to convince consumers to go electric for almost a decade. However, in most countries, pure electric vehicles still only represent less than 1% of the total vehicles shipping, despite the relative success stories of Nissan (Leaf) and Tesla (which struggles to scale production to larger volumes). While the consumer adoption barriers are well known (range anxiety, price, limited model range, etc.), the more serious issue is the lack ofa market driver. The very large majority of consumers simply don’t seem to care about the type of powertrain when making purchase decisions.
Clearly, relying on consumers to drive adoption of EVs increasingly seems an unrealistic or at least an excruciatingly slow process. However, recently, non-consumer drivers have started to appear in terms of various stakeholders announcing their commitment to vehicle electrification:
The Role and Importance of Wireless EV Charging |
IMPACT |
A limited number of technology vendors including Witricity and Qualcomm are investing heavily in the development of resonance-based wireless electric vehicle charging. It is also in the process of being standardized by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) as part of the SAE TIR J2954 standard specifying a common frequency band of 85 kHz (81.39–90.00 kHz) and four classes of wireless power transfer levels (3.7 kW, 7.7 kW, 11.0 kW, and 22.0 kW).
It is a matter of time before the first EVs supporting wireless charging will be launched by car OEMs. BMW will offer 3.2 kW wireless charging on the 530e plug-in iPerformance in 2018. However, a wide range of wireless EV charging use cases can be distinguished, from a nice to have convenience feature to a must have capability:
The role of wireless charging in terms of making charging both a more convenient and a more frequent experience is obvious. However, it will also have important repercussions on the design of EVs. With the current focus largely centered around maximizing range through very large batteries charged at home at night which decreases the dependence on a non-residential charging infrastructure, wireless charging holds the promise of designing EVs with much smaller batteries that are charged nearly continuously, addressing the double challenge of range anxiety and the high cost of EVs. This will radically change the current focus on fixed, fast charging stations.
Outlook for EVs becoming Mainstream |
COMMENTARY |
While the momentum around EVs is clearly increasing, it is hard to see if and when they will become mainstream (which can be conveniently defined as the point at which 50% of all vehicles shipping will be pure electric). While wireless charging can initially help fuel organic growth through increased convenience, only the emergence of shared, driverless electric vehicles will move the needle towards mass adoption. Ironically, by then, it will have removed the consumer out of the equation completely, putting the technology decision entirely in the hands of whoever will operate these fleets. This will coincide with the consumer increasingly abandoning vehicle ownerships and starting relying on mobility services as the main way to consume transportation.
This will represent a double transformation: technological and business. It will be the pivot around which all key transformational automotive technologies will come together: fully driverless systems (level 5), cooperative mobility infrastructure (V2I), 5G, and an embedded wireless charging infrastructure. It will require close cooperation between the automotive industry and city governments, in particular as it relates to the joint funding of infrastructure via Public-Private Partnerships, balancing the short term deployment of fixed charging stations with the long term planning of embedded wireless charging infrastructure for future proofing EV infrastructure strategies.
ABI Research sees 2025 as the pivotal year by which the paradigms described above will see critical uptake. Clearly, for Witricity and Qualcomm, having invested heavily in wireless EV charging, the stakes are high, though pay offs will not necessarily be achievable in the short term. The key conundrum they are grappling with is the seemingly contradiction between on one hand the slow nature of wireless charging limiting it to home-based charging in the short term and the real value it can offer through use cases of continuous charging while driving based on infrastructure built into roads. However this ultimate Uber use case is a long term vision not helping their business move forward in the short term. In the mean look they should look into intermediate opportunities where EVs would be “power snacking” through distributed fixed charging positions for semi-stationary charging.
In any case, wireless EV charging is a foundational technology for the upcoming mobility revolution.