Is California Getting Cold Feet About Driverless Cars?

Once known for its leading role in allowing testing of autonomous vehicles, the California DMV (Department of Motor Vehicles) all of a sudden seems to have made a U-turn, mandating drivers to be present and able to take back control of the vehicle at all times, if and when needed. This means that physical controls, such as the steering wheel and pedals, will need to be firmly in place as opposed to Google wanting to remove them completely. Clearly, the California DMV shies away from consumers being transported in fully driverless vehicles. Or at least that’s what is stipulated in the draft legislation, open for public comment, on the use of autonomous cars on public roads by consumers. This forms the second part of legislation required by Senate Bill 1298, the first part issued in 2014 and covering the testing of autonomous vehicles by car OEMs and suppliers. Interestingly, OEMs will only get a 3-year provisional deployment permit and will only be able to lease, not sell, their autonomous vehicles to consumers, putting further fences around their operations.

This follows close on the heels of the U.S. Consumer Watchdog advocating autonomous car safety policies, such as the presence of both current passive safety technologies and, yes, steering wheels and pedals, maintaining the capability for the driver to take over control. At the same time, NHTSA’s head Rosekind warned against state regulation fragmentation while pleading for a flexible overall framework, but has fallen short of commenting on California’s proposal.

In any case, the California DMV’s draft law is a blow for Silicon Valley, which has attracted a lot of automotive investments, most recently from Toyota spending $1 billion on an AI R&D facility. Not being able to test and deploy innovations in its home market is obviously a huge handicap for any technology ecosystem. 

While the latest stance of the California DMV on driverless vehicle regulation is a set-back for Google, the car industry itself will be less concerned, as every single car OEM so far has gone out of its way to emphasize the importance of the role of the driver in autonomous vehicles, allowing them to stretch the status quo in terms of vehicle technology, user interfaces and the continuation of the century old car ownership business model. However, the real benefits of vehicle automation in terms of car sharing and, more generally, the transportation as a service paradigm, can only be implemented with fully driverless vehicles. In other words, the full relevance of automation can only be realized by robotic cars. Staying stuck in the middle does not make sense. This does not mean unnecessary risks need be taken, but it cannot be an excuse for ignoring the critical role of fully driverless vehicles. Nor can the disruptive transition toward removing the driver be completely achieved in a gradual, evolutionary way. Someone somewhere will have to cross the chasm. And it looks increasingly unlikely that this will happen in the U.S. first. 

With the very demanding legal and regulatory environment in the U.S. always expected to be a major inhibitor for the adoption of driverless vehicle technology, Asia might well be in position to fill the gap, especially as it has a bigger need for pushing driverless transportation as a structural solution for its endemic traffic congestion and environmental issues, while at the same time representing a more “friendly” legal environment for new technologies.

Singapore already operates driverless shuttle buses supplied by Navya. Japan recently announced plans to start trialing robotic taxis for potential deployment at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Japan understands the need for supporting and promoting its automotive industry with Toyota, Nissan, Panasonic, and Mitsubishi Electric actively developing AI-based driverless technology. In China, Google’s equivalent Baidu started developing an autonomous, unmanned vehicle in 2014, working with third-party car manufacturers while itself focusing on digital maps, image recognition, voice interfaces and artificial intelligence via the Baidu Brain autopilot through the Baidu Institute of Deep Learning (IDL). Recently, it announced plans to take driverless buses to the road by 2018 while spinning off its autonomous vehicle activities into a separate division. Moreover, it invested in Uber, hereby acknowledging the importance of the car sharing paradigm, similar to the Chinese ecommerce and media behemoths Alibaba and Tencent investing in up and coming Uber rival Didi-Kuaidi. China actively encourages car manufacturers to partner with players outside the automotive industry to bolster innovation, with Alibaba joining forces with SAIC.

While the driverless ecosystem risks losing some momentum in the U.S., it is just starting to gather speed in Asia.